Climate controls on nitrate concentration variability in the Abbotsford-Sumas aquifer, British Columbia, Canada

Understanding the linkage between temporal climate variability and groundwater nitrate concentration variability in monitoring well records is key to interpreting the impacts of changes in land-use practices and assessing groundwater quality trends. This study explores the coupling of climate variability and groundwater nitrate concentration variability in the Abbotsford-Sumas aquifer. Over the period of 1992–2009, the average groundwater nitrate concentration in the aquifer remained fairly steady at approximately 15 mg/L nitrate-N. Normalized nitrate data for 19 individual monitoring wells were assessed for a range of intrinsic factors including precipitation, depth to water table, depth below water table, and apparent groundwater age. At a broad scale, there is a negative correlation between nitrate concentration and apparent groundwater age. Each dedicated monitoring well shows unique, non-uniform cyclical variability in nitrate concentrations that appears to correspond with seasonal (1 year) cycles in precipitation as well as longer-period cycles (~5 years), possibly due to ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) or the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. These precipitation cycles appear to influence nitrate concentrations by approximately ±30 % of the critical concentration (10 mg/L NO₃–N). Not all wells show direct correlation due to many complex local-scale factors that influence nitrate leaching including spatially and temporally variable nutrient management practices and soil/crop nitrogen dynamics (anthropogenic and agronomic factors).