Coercion or Choice: Opportunities and Challenges of a 25-Year Agreement for Iran and China

In 2021, Iran and China signed the agreement to expand their cooperation in the areas of energy, technology, infrastructure, transportation, and ports development. The agreement was met with sharp reactions from some political factions inside Iran and Tehran’s opposition abroad. Some groups even described the contract as a betrayal of Iran’s national interests. In contrast, what was heard from China was complete satisfaction. This article addresses the impacts of the agreement on the future of bilateral and multilateral relations between the two countries, its short-term and long-term benefits for China, the challenges facing China to implement it, its political-economic opportunities, and the challenges it presents for Iran. The main hypothesis of the paper is that Iran had no viable alternative. This agreement may help Iran’s economy in the short term, but it will be harmful in the long run. In contrast, the deal will help China mount a pre-emptive strike against a containment policy by engaging in new economic partnerships with its neighbors through the Belt and Road Initiative.