Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Empirical Economics 1/2017

11.02.2017

Combination of “combinations of p values”

verfasst von: Lan Cheng, Xuguang Simon Sheng

Erschienen in: Empirical Economics | Ausgabe 1/2017

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

We investigate the impact of an uncertain number of false individual null hypotheses on commonly used p value combination methods. Under such uncertainty, these methods perform quite differently and often yield conflicting results. Consequently, we develop a combination of “combinations of p values” (CCP) test aimed at maintaining good power properties across such uncertainty. The CCP test is based on a simple union–intersection principle that exploits the weak correspondence between two underlying p value combination methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the CCP test controls size and closely tracks the power of the best individual methods. We empirically apply the CCP test to explore the stationarity in real exchange rates and the information rigidity in inflation and output growth forecasts.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Fußnoten
1
Harvey et al. (2009) used the union–intersection method to combine two unit root tests, and their combination approach comes close to exploiting the available information efficiently as shown by Müller (2009). Dumitru and Urga (2012) used the similar strategy across nine procedures and across sampling frequencies to minimize spurious jump detection in financial assets. Bayer and Hanck (2013) applied a similar method to combine non-cointegration tests.
 
2
These two methods were introduced to panel unit root literature independently by Maddala and Wu (1999) and Choi (2001). See Costantini and Lupi (2013) and Sheng and Yang (2013a) for recent applications.
 
3
Hanck (2013) advocated Simes’ method in testing panel unit roots.
 
4
See Lehmann and Romano (2005, p.350) for further discussions on the power of Bonferroni procedure.
 
5
In cases where \(g(\gamma ;n)\) has a closed-form formula, e.g., combining Tippett’s and Simes’ methods, we find that a second-order polynomial is sufficient in approximating the function \(g(\gamma ;n)\). We also conducted the simulation study by combining Tippett’s and Simes’ methods. The simulated values of \(\gamma \) are virtually the same as the ones obtained analytically by solving the equation \(g(\gamma ;n)\), implying that the Monte Carlo simulation methods are reliable.
 
6
We experimented with different values of K and step size h. Our results show that the values of \(\gamma \) remain almost the same across different values of \(K=10\), 20, and 40. For the detailed results, see the online appendix. In our simulation, we used \(K=20\), \(h=0.01\), and \(M=10,000\).
 
7
In separate simulation studies not shown here, we combined the two methods from the same group. We find that Tippett’s and Simes’ methods are almost perfectly corresponded, and Fisher’s and Stouffer’s methods are highly corresponded. To save space, these results are not reported here. They are available upon request.
 
8
In separate simulation studies, we also combined the two methods within the same group. We find that the power of the individual methods is virtually indistinguishable from that of the CCP test. Thus, the gains from combining two highly correlated methods are very small. For this reason, we do not recommend combining the two methods coming from the same group.
 
9
The power of the CCP test when combining other methods, that is, Fisher’s and Simes’, Fishers’ and Tippett’s, and Stouffer’s and Tippett’s, is qualitatively similar to that of combining Stouffer’s and Simes’ and is thus not reported here for the sake of brevity.
 
10
The 82% is calculated as the ratio of the number of rejections of the null by the CCP test (18) over the number of cases where two constituent methods give conflicting results (22).
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Andrade P, Le Bihan H (2013) Inattentive professional forecasters. J Monet Econ 60:967–982CrossRef Andrade P, Le Bihan H (2013) Inattentive professional forecasters. J Monet Econ 60:967–982CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bai J, Ng S (2004) A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration. Econometrica 72:1127–1177CrossRef Bai J, Ng S (2004) A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration. Econometrica 72:1127–1177CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Baltagi B (2008) Econometric analysis of panel data, 4th edn. Wiley, Hoboken Baltagi B (2008) Econometric analysis of panel data, 4th edn. Wiley, Hoboken
Zurück zum Zitat Bayer C, Hanck C (2013) Combining non-cointegration tests. J Time Ser Anal 34:83–95CrossRef Bayer C, Hanck C (2013) Combining non-cointegration tests. J Time Ser Anal 34:83–95CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Birnbaum A (1954) Combining independent tests of significance. J Am Stat Assoc 49:559–574 Birnbaum A (1954) Combining independent tests of significance. J Am Stat Assoc 49:559–574
Zurück zum Zitat Choi I (2001) Unit root tests for panel data. J Int Money Financ 20:249–272CrossRef Choi I (2001) Unit root tests for panel data. J Int Money Financ 20:249–272CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Choi I, Chue TK (2007) Subsampling hypothesis tests for nonstationary panels with applications to exchange rates and stock prices. J Appl Econom 22:233–264CrossRef Choi I, Chue TK (2007) Subsampling hypothesis tests for nonstationary panels with applications to exchange rates and stock prices. J Appl Econom 22:233–264CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y (2012) What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities? J Polit Econ 120:116–159CrossRef Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y (2012) What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities? J Polit Econ 120:116–159CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y (2015) Information rigidity and the expectations formation process: a simple framework and new facts. Am Econ Rev 105:2644–2678CrossRef Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y (2015) Information rigidity and the expectations formation process: a simple framework and new facts. Am Econ Rev 105:2644–2678CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Costantini M, Lupi C (2013) A simple panel-CADF test for unit roots. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 75:276–296CrossRef Costantini M, Lupi C (2013) A simple panel-CADF test for unit roots. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 75:276–296CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Dufour J-M, Khalaf L, Voia M (2015) Finite-sample resampling-based combined hypothesis tests, with applications to serial correlation and predictability. Commun Stat—Simul Comput 44:2329–2347CrossRef Dufour J-M, Khalaf L, Voia M (2015) Finite-sample resampling-based combined hypothesis tests, with applications to serial correlation and predictability. Commun Stat—Simul Comput 44:2329–2347CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Dufour J-M, Torres O (1998) Union-intersection and sample-split methods in econometrics with applications to MA and SURE Models. In: Giles D, Ullah A (eds) Handbook of applied economic statistics, vol 14. Marcel Dekker Inc., New York, pp 465–505 Dufour J-M, Torres O (1998) Union-intersection and sample-split methods in econometrics with applications to MA and SURE Models. In: Giles D, Ullah A (eds) Handbook of applied economic statistics, vol 14. Marcel Dekker Inc., New York, pp 465–505
Zurück zum Zitat Dumitru A-M, Urga G (2012) Identifying jumps in financial assets: a comparison between nonparametric jump tests. J Bus Econ Stat 30:242–255CrossRef Dumitru A-M, Urga G (2012) Identifying jumps in financial assets: a comparison between nonparametric jump tests. J Bus Econ Stat 30:242–255CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Fisher RA (1932) Statistical methods for research workers, 4th edn. Oliver and Boyd, London Fisher RA (1932) Statistical methods for research workers, 4th edn. Oliver and Boyd, London
Zurück zum Zitat Hanck C (2013) An intersection test for panel unit roots. Econom Rev 32:183–203CrossRef Hanck C (2013) An intersection test for panel unit roots. Econom Rev 32:183–203CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Harvey DI, Leybourne SJ, Robert Taylor AM (2009) Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition. Econom Theory 25:587–636CrossRef Harvey DI, Leybourne SJ, Robert Taylor AM (2009) Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition. Econom Theory 25:587–636CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hedges LV, Olkin I (1985) Statistical methods for meta-analysis. Academic Press, San Diego Hedges LV, Olkin I (1985) Statistical methods for meta-analysis. Academic Press, San Diego
Zurück zum Zitat Lahiri K, Sheng X (2008) Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model. J Econom 144:325–340CrossRef Lahiri K, Sheng X (2008) Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model. J Econom 144:325–340CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lehmann EL, Romano JP (2005) Testing statistical hypotheses, 3rd edn. Springer, New York Lehmann EL, Romano JP (2005) Testing statistical hypotheses, 3rd edn. Springer, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Lopez C (2008) Evidence of purchasing power parity for the floating regime period. J Int Money Financ 27:156–164CrossRef Lopez C (2008) Evidence of purchasing power parity for the floating regime period. J Int Money Financ 27:156–164CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Loughin TM (2004) A systematic comparison of methods for combining \(p\) values from independent tests. Comput Stat Data Anal 47:467–485CrossRef Loughin TM (2004) A systematic comparison of methods for combining \(p\) values from independent tests. Comput Stat Data Anal 47:467–485CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Maddala GS, Wu S (1999) A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 61:631–652CrossRef Maddala GS, Wu S (1999) A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 61:631–652CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mankiw G, Reis R (2002) Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Quart J Econ 117:1295–1328CrossRef Mankiw G, Reis R (2002) Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Quart J Econ 117:1295–1328CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Müller UK (2009) Comment on unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition. Econom Theory 25:643–648CrossRef Müller UK (2009) Comment on unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition. Econom Theory 25:643–648CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Neuhäuser M (2003) Tests for genetic differentiation. Biom J 8:974–984CrossRef Neuhäuser M (2003) Tests for genetic differentiation. Biom J 8:974–984CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat O’Connell PGJ (1998) The overvaluation of purchasing power parity. J Int Econ 44:1–19CrossRef O’Connell PGJ (1998) The overvaluation of purchasing power parity. J Int Econ 44:1–19CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pesaran MH (2007) A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. J Appl Econom 22:265–312CrossRef Pesaran MH (2007) A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. J Appl Econom 22:265–312CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Roy SN (1953) On a heuristic method of test construction and its use in multivariate analysis. Ann Math Stat 24:220–238CrossRef Roy SN (1953) On a heuristic method of test construction and its use in multivariate analysis. Ann Math Stat 24:220–238CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sheng X, Yang J (2013a) Truncated product methods for panel unit root tests. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 75:624–636CrossRef Sheng X, Yang J (2013a) Truncated product methods for panel unit root tests. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 75:624–636CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sheng X, Yang J (2013b) An adaptive truncated product method for combining dependent p values. Econ Lett 119:180–182CrossRef Sheng X, Yang J (2013b) An adaptive truncated product method for combining dependent p values. Econ Lett 119:180–182CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Simes RJ (1986) An improved Bonferroni procedure for multiple tests of significance. Biometrika 73:751–754CrossRef Simes RJ (1986) An improved Bonferroni procedure for multiple tests of significance. Biometrika 73:751–754CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sims CA (2003) Implications of rational inattention. J Monet Econ 50:665–690CrossRef Sims CA (2003) Implications of rational inattention. J Monet Econ 50:665–690CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Stouffer Samuel A, Suchman Edward A, DeVinney Leland C, Star Shirley A, Williams Robin M Jr (1949) Studies in social psychology in world war II: The American soldier, Adjustment during Army Life. vol 1. Princeton University Press, Princeton Stouffer Samuel A, Suchman Edward A, DeVinney Leland C, Star Shirley A, Williams Robin M Jr (1949) Studies in social psychology in world war II: The American soldier, Adjustment during Army Life. vol 1. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Zurück zum Zitat Tippett LHC (1931) The method of statistics. Williams & Norgate, London Tippett LHC (1931) The method of statistics. Williams & Norgate, London
Zurück zum Zitat Westberg M (1985) Combining independent statistical tests. The Statistician 34:287–296CrossRef Westberg M (1985) Combining independent statistical tests. The Statistician 34:287–296CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zaykin DV, Zhivotovsky LA, Westfall PH, Weir BS (2002) Truncated product method for combining p-values. Genet Epidemiol 22:170–185CrossRef Zaykin DV, Zhivotovsky LA, Westfall PH, Weir BS (2002) Truncated product method for combining p-values. Genet Epidemiol 22:170–185CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Combination of “combinations of p values”
verfasst von
Lan Cheng
Xuguang Simon Sheng
Publikationsdatum
11.02.2017
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Empirical Economics / Ausgabe 1/2017
Print ISSN: 0377-7332
Elektronische ISSN: 1435-8921
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1230-9

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2017

Empirical Economics 1/2017 Zur Ausgabe