Complexity and Security: New Ways of Thinking and Seeing

From the refugee crisis to economic slowdowns in emerging markets, from ever-rising numbers of terrorist and cyberattacks to water shortages and famines, global risks continue to dominate the headlines. The Asia-Pacific region in particular has the highest number of total occurrences, fatalities and effects of natural disaster events (flood and cyclone) and is no stranger to mega-disasters such as the likes of Super Typhoon Haiyan and Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004. According to the World Economic Forum ‘The world is insufficiently prepared for an increasingly complex risk environment’ (WEF, Global Risks 2015 10th edn: insight report, 2015). The threats to human security that we face today are multiple, complex and interrelated and often mutually reinforcing. As such, ‘Global risks cannot be seen in isolation’ (WEF, Global Risks 2015 10th edn: insight report, 2015). The hyper-connected world we live in is underpinned by hyper or hybrid-risks, whereby ‘…the fragility and vulnerabilities lie within the social/technological/economic/political/ecological interdependent systems’ (Masys AJ, Ray-Bennett N, Shiroshita H, Jackson P, Procedia Econ Financ 18:772–779, 2014). It is through these underlying networks that Helbing (Nature 497:51–59, 2013) argues that we have ‘… created pathways along which dangerous and damaging events can spread rapidly and globally’ and thereby has increased systemic risks.

The Asia-Pacific region faces many human security challenges associated with meeting food, water, and energy requirements in scenarios that stress the human security ‘ecosystem’. A Chatham House report ‘Preparing for High Impact, Low Probability Events’, found that governments and businesses remain unprepared for such events (Lee B, Preston F, Green G, Preparing for high-impact, low – probability events: lessons from Eyjafjallajokull. A Chatham House Report, London, 2012). This chapter presents the Asia-Pacific Security landscape as a complex ‘ecosystem’ that requires concepts, tools and perspectives from complexity theory, systems thinking and network science to support regional and global security risk management. The key is to embrace a strategic visioning and actioning that examines the interdependencies and interconnectivity across various ‘actors’ in the security ecosystem and how black swan events can stress the system. This is examined through the lens of Human security that lies at the center of the water-food-energy nexus as well as the disaster risk reduction, sustainability and development nexus.