Conclusion

Currently, UAS are assuming roles in air power that have traditionally been undertaken by manned aircraft, at least in permissive environments. Future warfare could see UCAS, the next evolution of UAS, undertaking the tasks and accepting most of the risks in high threat scenarios that have previously been the responsibility of military aviators. UCAS have the potential to offer a revolutionary new set of options, with enormous long-term payoffs to air power in terms of persistence, endurance, tactical deterrence and affordability. The context in which these systems would be used is fundamental to their developmental path. Although the military capabilities of future threats to international security should be adequately assessable, the intent of these nations remains less easy to predict. An understanding of where these threats are likely to come from is essential; any specious assumptions will lead to erroneous conclusions, in turn, potentially leading to wrong procurement decisions. Some countries struggle to balance their aspirations with the threat of political and economic disintegration; it is relationships with these countries that are likely to dictate the frequency and severity of future military challenges. Future conflicts will probably range from peacekeeping and policing roles to minor interstate warfare, with the potential for large interstate warfare. Identification of these possible adversaries is realistically achievable; how they are deterred and, if required, defeated is not so easily accomplished.