18. Conflict Monitoring and Early Warning Research in Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Democratic Republic of Congo

The Conflict Monitoring Tool (CMT) was developed by the Center for Research, Training, and Publications (CRTP) to provide a systematic framework for conflict analysis and intervention. Building on a regional peacebuilding analysis conducted by the Hekima Institute of Peace Studies and International Relations (HIPSIR), the CMT assesses conflict dynamics in Kenya, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Ethiopia—countries selected for their unique conflict profiles. South Sudan exemplifies a protracted internal conflict characterized by unresolved grievances, mistrust among conflicting parties, and a lack of political goodwill hindering peace efforts. Kenya faces recurring political and ethnic tensions, particularly related to electoral violence and historical grievances, which continue to fuel instability. The DRC’s conflict is driven by resource exploitation, weak governance, and unrealistic demands from conflict actors. At the same time, Ethiopia struggles with ethnic-based violence, political rivalries, and tensions surrounding federalism, all worsened by deep mistrust among political groups and communities. These countries share common challenges despite their differences, highlighting the need for structured conflict analysis. The CMT provides policymakers and practitioners with actionable insights to mitigate violence and foster sustainable peacebuilding strategies by monitoring conflict levels, identifying key drivers, and mapping stakeholders.