Connectivity at risk: a critical scenario for the endangered Baird’s tapir and the vulnerable white-lipped peccary in the Maya Forest

Populations of the threatened Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) and the white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) face increasing isolation due to rampant deforestation and forest fragmentation across the Greater Maya Forest shared by southeastern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and Belize. We identified (1) the critical areas to ensure the persistence of Baird’s tapir and the white-lipped peccary in the Maya Forest; (2) the corridors and sites with the best conditions to maintain connectivity among core habitats, and (3) the nodes with higher risk of habitat loss compromising landscape connectivity. We used a methodological framework combining circuit theory and species distribution modeling to estimate landscape resistance, land use, and the effect of roads and trails on the current distribution of the two focal species in the Maya Forest. We detected that major roads associated with agricultural landscapes are the primary barriers to the movements of tapirs and white-lipped peccaries in the study area. Conserving corridors that link the forests of the Lacandon and the Calakmul regions, along with the protected area network of northern Belize and establishing nodes between remaining forest fragments, are critical measures to mitigate the impact of habitat fragmentation and loss for both species. The critical constriction areas (pinch points) and the corridors identified in this study support our prediction of the least-cost paths. Our assessment of threats to landscape connectivity provides useful information to inform effective decision-making for conserving Baird’s tapir and white-lipped peccary populations in the Greater Maya Forest.