‘Consensual’ Regional Hegemony, Pluralist-Solidarist Visions, and Emerging Power Aspirations

Why should we view Indonesia as an emerging power? There are a range of indicators supporting Indonesia’s status in international affairs. In the late 1990s analysts referred to Indonesia as a pivotal state.1 The McKinsey Report on Indonesia in 2012 predicted that by 2030, it will become the world’s seventh largest economy.2 In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, Indonesia even outperformed the BRIC countries, attracting investors searching for new emerging investment markets. A report released on 6 March 2013 by the Boston Consulting Group3 made a case for the archipelagic state of 242 million people as a prime investment destination. Memorable excerpts from the report noted that: 1) Indonesia’s middle income and affluent classes will double by 2020 from 74 million to 141 million people and more than half the population (53 per cent) will qualify as middle class or richer; 2) Indonesians feel more financially secure than people in other BRIC countries (Thirty-one per cent of Indonesians surveyed reported feeling secure, compared with only 14 per cent of Chinese, 19 per cent of Indians, 15 per cent of Russians and 13 per cent of Brazilians); and 3) Indonesia’s middle class will become more dispersed and consequently, new cities will emerge beyond Jakarta as centers of wealth. Here, the total number of cities with more than a million middle-income earners will roughly double, from 12 cities to 22 in seven years (see Chapter 3). A further expectation is that Indonesia will enjoy a demographic dividend during 2020–30 when its productive age group—people between 15 and 64 years of age—maximizes their economic productivity, and dependency ratios are at their lowest levels.4