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2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

7. Consensus Found and Consensus Lost: Taiwan’s 2016 Election, the “1992 Consensus,” and Cross-Strait Relations

verfasst von : Wei-chin Lee

Erschienen in: Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter aims to examine the tug of war of campaign slogans and narrative propositions between parties and electoral contenders in the 2016 presidential elections. It begins with a brief genesis of the 1992 Consensus and its distinctive features followed by an analysis of the campaign agendas and policy stances of presidential contenders and ends with implications for our understanding of Taiwan’s identity and future cross-Strait relations. President Tsai’s “status quo maintenance” proclamation is an attempt to reject the 1992 Consensus for electoral gain. However, the “one China” principle insisted by China will continue to be a significant factor for cross-Strait relations.

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Vorheriges Kapitel A Comparative Study of the China Factor in Taiwan and Hong Kong Elections

Nächstes Kapitel The DPP Ascendancy and Cross-Strait Relations

Chien-pin Li, “Taiwan’s Participation in Inter-Governmental Organizations: An Overview of Its Initiatives.” Asian Survey, 46, no. 4, 2006, 597–614.

Hui-wan Cho, “China, Taiwan Co-representation in IGOs.” Quanqiu zhengzhi pinglun (English title: Review of Global Politics), 26, 2009, 93–130.

Jack Snyder and Karen Ballentine, “Nationalism and the Marketplace of Ideas,” International Security, 21(2), Fall 1996, 5–40. For a discussion of Taiwan’s case, see Yun-han Chu, “Taiwan’s National Identity Politics and a Prospect of Cross-Strait Relations,” Asian Survey, 44, no. 4, July/August 2004, 484–512. For a discussion of Chinese national identity, see Prasenjit Duara, “Historicizing National Identity, or Who Imagines What and When,” Becoming National: A Reader, ed. Geoff Eley and Ronald Grigor Suny (Oxford University Press, 1996), 150–177.

For a general introduction of alliance politics, see Glenn H. Snyder, “The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics,” World Politics, 36, no. 4, 1984, 461–495; Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007).

See Su Chi, “Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, “Chronology: 1992,” www.mac.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=67748&ctNode=6605&mp=3.

Here the idea of common ground is similar to the zone of indifference. See Chester Irving Barnard, The Functions of the Executive (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1968), 168–169.

Szu-yin Ho and I-chou Liu, “The Taiwanese/Chinese Identity of the Taiwan People in the 1990s,” in Sayonara to the Lee Teng-hui Era, Politics in Taiwan, 1988–2000, ed. Wei-chin Lee and T.Y. Wang (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 2003), 171.

Shih Hsiu-chuan, “Su Chi Admits the ‘1992 Consensus” Was Made Up,” Taipei Times, Feb. 22, 2006, 3.

Ying-jeou Ma, “Cross-Strait Relations at Crossroad: Impasse or Breakthrough?” in Breaking the China-Taiwan Impasse (Westpoint, CT: Praeger, 2003), 43–44; for China’s view, see Xu Shiquan, “The 1992 Consensus,” in Breaking the China-Taiwan Impasse (Westpoint, CT: Praeger, 2003), 88–94; “1992 Consensus: The Key to Cross-Strait Peace and Prosperity,” Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan, July 2015, www.mac.gov.tw. George W. Tsai, “Cross Taiwan Straits Relations: Policy Adjustment and Prospects,” Cross-Taiwan Straits Relations Since 1979, ed. Kevin G. Cai (Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific, 2011), 122.

See the speech by Li Yafei, China’s Vice President of China’s Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), the counterpart of Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), video.chinatimes.com/video-bydate-cnt.aspx?cid=1&nid=35720. Also, Shiquan Xu, “The 1992 Consensus: A Review and Assessment of Consultations Between the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait and the Straits Exchange Foundation,” in Breaking the China-Taiwan Impasse, Donald S. Zagoria, ed., with the assistance of Chris Fugarino (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2003), 82–83.

Flor Wang, “Taiwan Not to Mention ‘Two-State Theory Again: MAC Head,” May 2000, fas.org/news/taiwan/2000/e-05-23-00-15.htm; Suisheng Zhao, “Reunification Strategy: Beijing Versus Lee Teng-hui,” Assessing the Lee Teng-hui Legacy in Taiwan’s Politics. ed. Bruce J. Dickson and Chien-min Chao (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2002), 232; Julian J. Kuo, “Cross-Strait Relations: Buying Time without Strategy,” Assessing the Lee Teng-hui Legacy in Taiwan’s Politics. ed. Bruce J. Dickson and Chien-min Chao (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2002), 207.

Articles 2, 3, and 8 of the Anti-Secession Law, adopted at the 3rd Session of the 10th National People’s Congress, March 13, 2005. english.people.com.cn/200503/14/eng20050314_176746.html. With a proclamation that “both the Mainland and Taiwan belong to one China,” the Anti-Secession law also reconfirms its rejection of any interference by outside forces as an apparent reference to Washington’s intervention.

Wei-chin Lee, “Taiwan’s Cultural Reconstruction Movement: Identity Politics and Collective Action since 2000,” Issues and Studies, 41, no. 1, March 2005, 1–51.

Data may vary slightly subject to the date of survey conducted. See Szu-yin Ho and I-chou Liu, “The Taiwanese/Chinese Identity of the Taiwan People in the 1990s,” in Sayonara to the Lee Teng-hui Era, Politics in Taiwan, 1988–2000, ed. Wei-chin Lee and T.Y. Wang (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 2003), 171. The Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, “Taiwanese/Chinese Identification Trend Distribution in Taiwan (1992/06~2015/06),” esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166#. Duke University’s Taiwan National Security Survey result in Oct. 2015 showed 4.5% of respondents considering “Chinese identity” in comparison to 35% of dual identity and 57.4% preferring “Taiwanese identity.” See Taiwan National Identity Survey, the Program of Asian Security, Duke University. dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/43428880/index.html, question C36.

The Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, “Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland Trend Distribution in Taiwan (1992/06~2015/06),” esc.nccu.edu.tw/course/news.php?Sn=167.

Various years of “Taiwan National Security Survey” files, 2002–2015, are made available by the Program of Asian Security Studies, Duke University. dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/43428880/index.html. See Questions C12 and C33 in the 2014 and 2015 survey results.

Lii Wen, “‘Consensus’ View Could Hurt KMT: Survey,” Taipei Times, May 25, 2015. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2015/05/25/2003619121.

Donatella Selva and Emiliana De Blasio, “Influence on Elections,” Encyclopedia of Social Media and Politics, ed. Kerric Harvey (Sage, 2013), 673–677.

Shelley Rigger, Why Taiwan Matters (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2011), 159.

Ricky Yeh, “The Challenging Road for Taiwan’s Newest Presidential Candidate,” The Diplomat, July 19, 2015. thediplomat.com/2015/07/the-challenging-road-for-taiwans-newest-presidential-candidate.

Loa Lok-sin, “MAC Hiding Unfavorable Data: DPP,” Taipei Times, May 22, 2014, 3; Crystal Hsu, “Trade Pact Siege: Majority Opposes Trade Agreement: Poll,” Taipei Times, March 27, 2014, 3; “Fumao renzhi luocha da, dujia mindiao baogao” (Wide Gap of the Understanding of CASSA, Exclusive Report of Polls), Jinzhoukan (Business Today), No. 901, March 27, 2014. www.businesstoday.com.tw/article-content-92743-106753?page=3.

“Taiwan zhiku: nianqingren toupiaolu 74.5%” (Taiwan Thinktank: Youngsters Voting 74.5%), Liberty Times Net, Taiwan, January 21, 2016. news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/1579950. Also see Taiwan Thinktank, Post-2016 election’s survey. www.taiwanthinktank.org/chinese/page/2411/2410/3086/0.

Taiwan National Security Survey, 2014 and 2015, the Program of Asian Security, Duke University. dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/43428880/index.html, Question C32.

He Meng-kui, “Tsai Ing-wen: Chou Tze-yu shijian, zhongshang Taiwan renmin ganqing” (Tsai Ing-wen: Chou Tze-yu Incident, Severely Hurt the Feeling of Taiwanese People), Shijie Ribao (World Journal), US, January 16, 2016. www.worldjournal.com/3669969/.....

Bonnie S. Glaser and Jacqueline A. Vitello, Taiwan’s Marginalized Role in international Security, A Report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., January 2015, Appendix II, 47–52; Bonnie S. Glaser, Taiwan’s Quest for Greater Participation in the International Community, A Report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., November 2013, 11–15; Wei-chin Lee, The Mutual Non-denial Principle, China’s Interests, and Taiwan’s Expansion of International Participation (Baltimore, MD: School of Law, University of Maryland, 2014), Maryland Series in Contemporary Asian Studies, March.

International Foundation for Electoral Systems, “ElectionGuide: Democracy Assistance and Election News.” www.electionguide.org/countries/id/209/.

The text of Tsai’s speech in Chinese and English after her electoral victory on January 16, 2016, can be found in <iing.tw/posts/533>. The English translation might be slightly different from the Chinese text. For example, Tsai used xianzheng tizhi (constitutional framework or order), instead of xianfa (constitution). The use of constitutional framework, in her supporters’ view, contains all constitutional interpretation, amendments, cases, and others. The use of “constitution” confines on those constitutional articles only.

Lawrence Chung, Minnie Chan, Liu Zhen and Ma Jun, “Taiwan Election Blog: Singer Chou Tzu-yu’s Apology Steals the Show Early, but Will Tsai In-wen Make History as First Female President,” South China Morning Post, January 16, 2016. www.scmp.com.

Minnie Chan, “Teen Pop Star Chou Tzu-yu’s Apology for Waving Taiwan’s Flag Swayed Young voters for DPP,” South China Morning Post, January 17, 2016. Later, some talk show commentators even commented the impact of Chou’s incident on some legislators’ electoral results overnight and led to the successful election of three legislators from constituencies and two seats allocated from proportional share of party ballots, though there is no openly available documentation for verification of such claims.

John R. Gillis, “Introduction: Memory and Identity: The History of a Relationship,” in Commemorations: The Politics of National Identity, ed. John R. Gillis (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994), 5.

Prasenjit Duara, “Historicizing National Identity, or Who Imagines What and When,” Becoming National: A Reader, ed. Geoff Eley and Ronald Grigor Suny (Oxford University Press, 1996), 168–169.

Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities, revised edition (London: Verso, 1999).

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Taiwan National Security Survey, 2014 and 2015, the Program of Asian Security, Duke University. dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/43428880/index.html, Question C23.

“For Voters, Tsai Should Clarify Her Cross-Strait Stance,” The China Post, January 13, 2016. www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/taiwan-issues/2016/01/13/455882/For-voters.htm; “A Tsai Is Just a Tsai,” The Economist, January 9, 2016. www.economist.com/news/asia/21685507-election-independence-leaning-president-would-put-taiwan-back-international.

Taiwan National Security Survey, 2015, the Program of Asian Security, Duke University. dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/43428880/index.html, Questions C22, C28 and C33 in the 2015 Survey. In Question C28, 10.3% of respondents expressed their support whatever the government decides, while 17.5%, higher than 13.5% in 2014, of them would flee or go abroad and 30% of them will follow “the natural development of the situation” (shunqi ziran) in 2015. Also, for the complex interaction between emotional attachment and security concerns, see Rou-Lan Chen, “Taiwan’s Identity in Formation: In Reaction to a Democratizing Taiwan and a Rising China,” Asian Ethnicity 14, no. 2, 2013, 229–250.

United Daily, “Liangan guangxi tiaocha” (Cross-Strait Relations Survey), Sept. 16, 2015. money.udn.com/money/story/5648/1189933. Guo Zengliang, “Weichi xianzhuang xia, kongqian de jintui liangnan” (Unprecedented back and forth Dilemma under the Status Quo), Lianhe Bao (United Daily), Sept. 17, 2015. The survey was conducted by the United Daily.

Li Mingxuan, “Zhongguo jiousan dayuebing daodi yange shuikan?” (China’s Big Military Parade Was Really a Spectacle for Whom?), Tianxia zazhi (Commonwealth Magazine), Sept. 2, 2015, 183.

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Titel: Consensus Found and Consensus Lost: Taiwan’s 2016 Election, the “1992 Consensus,” and Cross-Strait Relations
verfasst von: Wei-chin Lee
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-77124-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-77125-0

Copyright-Jahr: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77125-0_7