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2007 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Conservation reconsidered: a modified input-output analysis of the economic impact of China’s land conservation policy
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To estimate the economic impact of China’s land conversion policy, I present a modified input–output model, applying supply constraints to the cropping sector to reflect exogenous restrictions on land availability. Strong biophysical linkages are integrated into the model to capture heterogeneities of climate, soil and terrain conditions relevant to agricultural production. Empirical study demonstrates that this long-term land-retiring programme has evident negative impacts on the rural economy. In Western China, the net present value of total social cost is USD 487 per hectare per year or a capital equivalent of land rent of USD 1,508 per hectare over 10 years, with 5% discounting.