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Erschienen in:
The Chinese Birdcage Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

9. Corporate Cash Piles and Falling Interest Rates

verfasst von : Heleen Mees

Erschienen in: The Chinese Birdcage

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan US

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Abstract

Bernanke blamed the global savings glut for the relatively low yields on longer-term US Treasuries in 2004, singling out the savings of emerging economies. Bernanke omitted, however, that US corporate demand for US Treasuries was at least as large. It would be more apt to speak of a corporate savings glut, especially because emerging market’s savings consist also for a large part of corporate savings. Also, it is too simple to blame foreign capital inflows for the housing bubble as causality runs from rising house prices to the deterioration of the current account, not the other way around. More importantly, there is a long-term trend toward lower interest rates that is, foremost, the result of the shift in income from labor to capital.

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Vorheriges Kapitel China’s Economic Development
Nächstes Kapitel The Shortfall in Demand
Fußnoten
1
Emerging and developing markets’ collective GDP in 2004 was about three-fourths of US GDP.
 
2
Onno Wijnholds and Lars Søndergaard (2007), “Reserve Accumulation – Objective or By-Product?,” European Central Bank Occasional Paper Series No. 73, 2007.
 
3
Steven Dunaway, Lamin Leigh, and Xiangming Li, “How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China,” International Monetary Fund, 2006.
 
4
Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fujii, “Why the Renminbi Might be Overvalued (But Probably Isn’t), 2005.
 
5
Willem Buiter, “When all else fails, blame China,” The Financial Times blog, 2009.
 
6
International Monetary Fund, Press Release No. 15/237, 2015.
 
7
Downward wage rigidity could in principle explain an increase in real wages amid a renminbi appreciation, and hence, a deterioration of China’s competitiveness.
 
8
Heleen Mees, “U.S. Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble,” 2012.
 
9
François Geerolf and Thomas Grjebine, “House Prices Drive Current Accounts: Evidence from Property Tax Variations,” 2013.
 
10
Geerolf and Grjebine, 2013.
 
11
Paul Krugman, “Deflation As Betrayal,” The New York Times blog, January 10, 2015.
 
12
Tobias Adrian, Richard Crump, and Emanuel Moench, “Do Treasury Term Premia Rise around Monetary Tightenings?,” Liberty Street Economics blog, 2013.
 
13
Mees, 2012.
 
14
Bernard Sack, “Regression Evidence on the Effects of Foreign Official Purchases of U.S. Treasury Securities,” Federal Reserve Board, 2004.
 
15
Response to Senator Shelby, Senate Banking Committee hearing, July 25, 2005.
 
16
Glenn Rudebusch, Eric T. Swanson and Tao Wu, “The Bond Yield Conundrum from a Macro-Finance Perspective,” Monetary an Economic Studies, pp. 83–129, 2006.
 
17
Francis Warnock and Veronica Warnock, “International capital flows and U.S. interest rates,” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 28, 903–919, 2009.
 
18
Iryna Kaminska and Gabriele Zinna, “Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. real interest rates,” International Monetary Fund, 2014.
 
19
Mees, 2012.
 
20
Kevin Daly and Ben Broadbent, “The Savings Glut, the Return on Capital and the Rise in Risk Aversion,” Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No: 185, 2009.
 
21
Ben Bernanke et al., “International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003-2007,” Federal Reserve, 2011.
 
22
“Corporate savings are driving the global savings glut,” JP Morgan, June 24, 2005.
 
23
Heleen Mees, “Interest rates should take blame for recession,” The Financial Times’ Economist Forum, 2013.
 
24
“The cash paradox: How record cash reserves are influencing corporate behavior,” Deloitte, 2014.
 
25
The corporate savings glut is a good example of how the availability of data shapes the policy debate. Had more data been available, corporate savings would undoubtedly have shared the blame for the global financial crisis.
 
26
Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith, “Secular drivers of the global real interest rate,” Bank of England, 2015.
 
27
Toby Nangle, “Labor power sets the neutral real rate,” VoxEU, May 9, 2015.
 
28
Charles Goodhart, Pratyancha Pardeshi, and Manoj Pradhan, “Workers vs pensioners: the battle of our time,” Prospect Magazine, December 2015.
 
Metadaten
Titel
Corporate Cash Piles and Falling Interest Rates
verfasst von
Heleen Mees
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Buch
The Chinese Birdcage

Print ISBN: 978-1-137-58888-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-1-137-58886-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58886-9_9