Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen
Model-based econometric techniques of the shadow economy estimation have been increasingly popular, but a systematic approach to getting the best of their complementarities has so far been missing. We review the dominant approaches in the literature—currency demand analysis and MIMIC model—and propose a hybrid procedure that addresses their previous critique, in particular the misspecification issues in CDA equations and the vague transformation of the latent variable obtained via MIMIC model into interpretable levels and paths of the shadow economy. We propose a new identification scheme for the MIMIC model, referred to as ‘reverse standarization’. It supplies the MIMIC model with the panel-structured information on the latent variable’s mean and variance obtained from the CDA estimates, treating this information as given in the restricted full information maximum likelihood function. This approach allows avoiding some controversial steps, such as choosing an externally estimated reference point for benchmarking or adopting other ad hoc identifying assumptions. We estimate the shadow economy for up to 43 countries, with the results obtained in the range of 2.8–29.9% of GDP. Various versions of our models remain robust as regards changes in the level of the shadow economy over time and the relative position of the analysed countries. We also find that the contribution of (a correctly specified) MIMIC model to the measurement of trends in the shadow economy is marginal as compared to the contribution of the CDA model, confirming the scepticism of some previous literature towards this method.
Ahumada, H., Alvaredo, F., & Canavese, A. (2008). The monetary method to measure the shadow economy: The forgotten problem of the initial conditions. Economics Letters, 101(2), 97–99. CrossRef
Ardizzi, G., Petraglia, C., Piacenza, M., & Turati, G. (2014). Measuring the underground economy with the currency demand approach: A reinterpretation of the methodology, with an application to Italy. Review of Income and Wealth, 60(4), 747–772. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12019.
Bagnall, J., Bounie, D., Huynh, K. P., Kosse, A., Schmidt, T., Schuh, S., et al. (2016). Consumer cash usage: A cross-country comparison with payment diary survey data. International Journal of Central Banking, 12(4), 1–60.
Bajada, C. (1999). Estimates of the underground economy in Australia. Economic Record, 75(4), 369–384. CrossRef
Bajada, C., & Schneider, F. (2005). The shadow economies of the Asia-Pacific. Pacific Economic Review, 10(3), 379–401. CrossRef
Breusch, T. (2005a). Australia’s cash economy: Are the estimates credible? The Economic Record, 81, 394–403. CrossRef
Breusch, T. (2005b). Estimates of the underground economy in Australia. Economic Record, 81, 394–403. CrossRef
Breusch, T. (2005c). The Canadian underground economy: An examination of Giles and Tedds. Canadian Tax Journal, 53(2), 367–391.
Breusch, T. (2016). Estimating the underground economy using MIMIC models. Journal of Tax Administration, 2(1), 1–29.
Buehn, A., & Schneider, F. (2016). Estimating the size of the shadow economy: Methods, problems and open questions. IZA discussion papers.
Cagan, P. (1958). The demand for currency relative to the total money supply. Journal of Political Economy, 66(4), 303–328. CrossRef
Choi, J. P., & Thum, M. (2003). Corruption and the shadow economy. In Dresden discussion paper series in economics 02/03. Technische Universitaet Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
Dell’Anno, R., & Schneider, F. (2003). The shadow economy of Italy and other OECD countries: What do we know? Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice, 21, 223–245.
Dell’Anno, R., & Schneider, F. (2009). A complex approach to estimate shadow economy: The structural equation modelling. In M. Faggini & T. Lux (Eds.), Coping with the complexity of economics. New economic windows. Milano: Springer.
Driscoll, J., & Kraay, A. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–560. CrossRef
Embaye, A. (2007). Underground economy estimates for non-OECD countries using currency demand method, 1984–2005, MPRA Paper 20308. Germany: University Library of Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20308/.
European Commission. (2013). European system of accounts. ESA 2010. European Commission.
EY. (2016). Reducing the shadow economy through electronic payments. Report, http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Report_Shadow_Economy/$FILE/REPORT_ShadowEconomy_FINAL_17.pdf. Accessed 19 Aug 2017.
Feige, E. L. (1979). How big is the irregular economy? Challenge, 22(5), 5–13. CrossRef
Feige, E. L. (1986). A re-examination of the “underground economy” in the United States. A comment on Tanzi. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 33(4), 768–781. CrossRef
Feige, E. L. (2016a). Professor Schneider’s shadow economy (SSE): What do we really know? A rejoinder. Journal of Tax Administration, 2(2), 5–40.
Feige, E. L. (2016b). Reflections on the meaning and measurement of unobserved economies: What do we really know about the “shadow economy”? Journal of Tax Administration, 2(1), 93–107.
Frey, B. S., & Weck, H. (1983). Estimating the shadow economy: A ’naive’ approach. Oxford Economic Papers, 35(1), 23–44. CrossRef
Frey, B. S., & Weck-Hannemann, H. (1984). The hidden economy as an ’unobserved’ variable. European Economic Review, 26(1–2), 33–53. CrossRef
Giles, D. E. (1999a). Measuring the hidden economy: Implications for econometric modelling. The Economic Journal, 109, F370–F380. CrossRef
Giles, D. E. (1999b). Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand. Empirical Economics, 24, 621–640. CrossRef
Giles, D. E. A. (2000). Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand. In G. W. Scully & P. J. Caragata (Eds.), Taxation and the limits of government. Boston, MA: Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4615-4433-3_10.
Giles, D. E., & Tedds, L. (2002). Taxes and the Canadian underground economy. Toronto: Canadian Tax Foundation.
Gutmann, P. M. (1977). The subterranean economy. Financial Analysts Journal, 33(6), 26–27. DOI34. CrossRef
Gyomai, G., & van de Ven, P. (2014). The non-observed economy in the system of national accounts. Statistics brief no. 18.
Hassan, M., & Schneider, F. (2016). Size and development of the shadow economies of 157 countries worldwide: Updated and new measures from 1999 to 2013. IZA discussion paper no. 10281, October.
Hill, R. (2002). The underground economy in Canada: Boom or bust? Canadian Tax Journal, 50(5), 1641–1654.
Kirchgässner, G. (2016). On estimating the size of the shadow economy. German Economic Review, 18(1), 99–111. CrossRef
Lichard, T., Hanousek, J., & Filer, R. K. (2012). Measuring the shadow economy: Endogenous switching regression with unobserved separation. IZA discussion paper series 6901.
OECD. (2002). Measuring the non-observed economy. A handbook. Paris: OECD.
Pickhardt, M., & Pons, J. S. (2006). Size and scope of the underground economy in Germany. Applied Economics, 38(14), 1707–1713. CrossRef
Ruge, M. (2010). Determinants and size of the shadow economy: A structural equation model. International Economic Journal, 24(4), 511–523. CrossRef
Schneider, F. (2005). Shadow economies around the world: What do we really know? European Journal of Political Economy, 21, 598–642. CrossRef
Schneider, F. (2006). Shadow economies of 145 countries all over the world: What do we really know? Etudes Fiscales Internationales. http://www.etudes-fiscales-internationales.com/files/ShadEconomyWorld145_2006.pdf. Accessed 19 Aug 2017.
Schneider, F. (2007). Shadow economies and corruption all over the world: New estimates for 145 countries. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 1, 1–66.
Schneider, F. (2016). Comment on Feige’s paper reflections on the meaning and measurement of unobserved economies: What do we really know about the ’shadow economy’? Journal of Tax Administration, 2(2), 82–92.
Schneider, F., Buehn, A., & Montenegro, C. E. (2010). Shadow economies all over the world. New estimates for 162 countries from 1999 to 2007. World Bank Policy research working paper.
Smith, R. S. (2002). The underground economy: Guidance for policy makers? Canadian Tax Journal, 50(5), 1655–1661.
Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development. IMF working papers (pp. 1–43).
Tanzi, V. (1980). Underground economy built on illicit pursuits is growing concern of economic policymakers. Survey no. 4–2.
Tanzi, V. (1983). The underground economy in the United States: Annual estimates, 1930–80. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 30(2), 283–305. CrossRef
Thiessen, U. (2010). The shadow economy in international comparison: Options for economic policy derived from an OECD panel analysis. International Economic Journal, 24, 481–509. CrossRef
Trebicka, M. (2014). MIMIC model: A tool to estimate the shadow economy. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 3(6), 295–300.
World Bank. (2016). Global payment systems survey (gpss). http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/paymentsystemsremittances/brief/gpss. Accessed 19 Aug 2017.
Zellner, A. (1970). Estimation of regression relationships containing unobservable independent variables. International Economic Review, 11(3), 441–454. CrossRef
- Currency demand and MIMIC models: towards a structured hybrid method of measuring the shadow economy
- Springer US
International Tax and Public Finance
Print ISSN: 0927-5940
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-6970
microm, Neuer Inhalt/© Stellmach, Neuer Inhalt/© BBL, Neuer Inhalt/© Maturus, Pluta Logo/© Pluta, Neuer Inhalt/© hww, Avaloq/© Avaloq Evolution AG, Avaloq/© Avaloq