North Korea’s defence strategy relies on its nuclear arsenal as strategic deterrent and on cyber capabilities as weapons technology to retain the strategic initiative during peacetime and to support kinetic attacks during conflict. Due to the advantageous cost-benefit ratio of cyber weapons compared to conventional and nuclear weapons, North Korea has invested considerably in cyber capabilities to underwrite its asymmetry strategy targeted at the US-ROK alliance. In combination with frequent occurrences of cybercrime and terror originating from North Korea, this has led to a proliferation of cyber attacks and exacerbated cyber insecurity on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea, the main target of North Korean cyber attacks, has furthermore proven unable to develop cyber defence capabilities able to sufficiently protect its military and civilian networks. Against this background, this chapter investigates the possibility of a cyber arms control regime on the Korean Peninsula. Fashioned after existing arms control regimes, this chapter proposes an inter-Korean cyber arms control agreement.
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Jin Moo Kim, “The Reality of North Korea’s Conventional Power: Transition to Asymmetric Strategy,” in North Korea Conundrum, ed. Un-Chul Yang (Seongnam: Sejong Institute, 2019), 55.
Peter Rosen, “Competitive Strategies: Theoretical Foundations, Limits, and Extensions,” in Competitive Strategies for the 21st Century: Theory, History, and Practice, ed. Thomas G. Mahnken (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2012), 18-19.
Jenny Jun, Scott LaFoy, and Ethan Sohn, “North Korea’s Cyber Operations: Strategy and Responses” (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2015), 24.
Dal Hyung Bae, “North Korea’s Cyber Threat and Options for South Korea’s Policy Improvement and Capability Enhancement” (Korea Research Institute of Strategy Policy, Seoul, 2011), 7-8.
Maximilian Ernst and Sangho Lee, “Countering Cyber Asymmetry on the Korean Peninsula: South Korea’s Defense Against Cyber Attacks from Authoritarian States,” Journal for Intelligence, Propaganda and Security Studies 15, no. 1 (2021): 165–79.
Maximilian Ernst and Eliana Kim, “Economic Development Under Kim Jong-Un: The Added Value of Traffic Data and Established Indicators in the Study of North Korea’s Economy,” North Korean Review 16, no. 2 (2020): 26–48.
An overview of North Korea’s ballistic missile arsenal is provided by: CSIS, “Missiles of North Korea,” Missile Defense Project (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, June 14, 2018), https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/.
Sangho Lee et al., “A Conceptual Study on Knowledge-Based Personal Information Gathering Methods for Conducting Psychological Warfare in Cyberspace,” in Convergence and Hybrid Information Technology, ed. Geuk Lee et al., vol. 310 (Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012), 287–93, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32692-9_37.
Roberto J. González, “Hacking the Citizenry?: Personality Profiling, ‘Big Data’ and the Election of Donald Trump,” Anthropology Today 33, no. 3 (June 2017): 9–12, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8322.12348
John Richardson, “Stuxnet as Cyberwarfare: Applying the Law of War to the Virtual Battlefield,” John Marshall Journal of Computer and Information Law 29, no. 1 (2011): 1–28.
Brandon Valeriano and Rayn Maness, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015), 25.
Prominent failed cases include the 2016 US-China cyber agreement: John W. Rollins, “U.S.-China Cyber Agreement” (Federation of American Scientists, October 16, 2015), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IN10376.pdf.
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, “A Quiet Success for Arms Control: Preventing Incidents at Sea,” International Security 9, no. 4 (1985): 154–84; April Carter, Success and Failure in Arms Control Negotiations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); Matthew Fuhrmann and Yonatan Lupu, “Do Arms Control Treaties Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” International Studies Quarterly 60, no. 3 (September 2016): 530–39, https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqw013.
Markus Maybaum and Jens Tölle, “Arms Control in Cyberspace – Architecture for a Trust-Based Implementation Framework Based on Conventional Arms Control Methods,” in Cyber Power (8th International Conference on Cyber Conflict, NATO, 2016), 161.