7. Data and Analysis of Chinese Ascendancy

We have outlined this dimension of China’s advantage resulting from RREs in our The Fall of the US Empire (2012), op.cit., pp. 117ff. A Council on Foreign Relations report prepared by Eugene Gholz (2014), “Rare Earth Elements and National security”, argues that the USA should not worry so much about “China’s control of 97% of rare-earth oxide production and of the processing business”, as market forces would correct this imbalance without major consequences for the economic and political security of the American state and its allies. The author brings up the Chinese embargo of REEs on Japan in 2010, which brought about no geopolitical benefits to China, as she claimed maritime rights and some disputed islands from Japan. Non-Chinese consumers of REEs, the report argued, were able to diversify promptly. However, reliance on “market forces” to act as a corrective to a state’s intention to use a strategic commodity as a geo-political weapon is rather naïve. As we shall see, Britain and the USA are very concerned about this dimension of Chinese primacy over REEs. We thank Alan Cafruny for drawing our attention to this report.

This did not leave The Economist unconcerned; see the Editorial of 18–24 April 2020 with the characteristic title: “Is China winning?”, p. 7.