Skip to main content

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

77. Decision Analysis

verfasst von : H. A. Donegan

Erschienen in: SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering

Verlag: Springer New York

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This chapter is devoted to some of the basic elements of decision analysis, a subject that has its roots firmly established in the area of management science, but now enjoys a much wider application. The present article, which is not intended as an exhaustive discussion paper, aims to introduce basic terminology and to illustrate some of the techniques that can be applied to situations in fire protection engineering, one of the many areas of application. The growth in application can be attributed to the significant developments that have taken place within information technology, particularly with regard to the ready availability of user-friendly decision support software. Practitioners interested in particular aspects of the subject and in software will find appropriate references listed in context. The reader should be aware at the outset that decision analysis is more general than risk analysis, which, in terms of fire protection, has its own extensive and highly specialized literature—see, for example, Castino and Harmathy [1], Gretener [2], Hall [3], Hirschler [4], Watts [5, 6].

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat G.T. Castino and T.Z. Harmathy, “Fire Risk Assessment,” ASTM (STP) 762, ASTM, Philadelphia (1982).CrossRef G.T. Castino and T.Z. Harmathy, “Fire Risk Assessment,” ASTM (STP) 762, ASTM, Philadelphia (1982).CrossRef
2.
Zurück zum Zitat M. Gretener, Fire Risk Evaluation, Association of Cantonal Institutions for Fire Insurance, Society of Engineers and Architects and Fire Prevention Services for Industry and Trade, Zurich, Switzerland (1980). M. Gretener, Fire Risk Evaluation, Association of Cantonal Institutions for Fire Insurance, Society of Engineers and Architects and Fire Prevention Services for Industry and Trade, Zurich, Switzerland (1980).
3.
Zurück zum Zitat J.R. Hall, “Key Distinctions in and Essential Elements of Fire Risk Analysis,” Fire Safety Science—Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 467–474 (1991). J.R. Hall, “Key Distinctions in and Essential Elements of Fire Risk Analysis,” Fire Safety ScienceProceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 467–474 (1991).
4.
Zurück zum Zitat M.M. Hirschler, “Fire Hazard and Risk Assessment,” ASTM (STP) 1150, ASTM, Philadelphia (1992).CrossRef M.M. Hirschler, “Fire Hazard and Risk Assessment,” ASTM (STP) 1150, ASTM, Philadelphia (1992).CrossRef
5.
Zurück zum Zitat J.M. Watts, “Dealing with Uncertainty: Some Applications in Fire Protection Engineering,” Fire Safety Journal, 11, pp. 127–134 (1986).CrossRef J.M. Watts, “Dealing with Uncertainty: Some Applications in Fire Protection Engineering,” Fire Safety Journal, 11, pp. 127–134 (1986).CrossRef
6.
Zurück zum Zitat J.M. Watts, “Criteria for Fire Risk Ranking,” Fire Safety Science—Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 457–466 (1991). J.M. Watts, “Criteria for Fire Risk Ranking,” Fire Safety Science—Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 457–466 (1991).
7.
Zurück zum Zitat R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy, “Good Probability Assessors,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, 7, pp. 751–758 (1968).CrossRef R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy, “Good Probability Assessors,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, 7, pp. 751–758 (1968).CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat D.W. Bunn, Applied Decision Analysis. McGraw-Hill, New York (1984).MATH D.W. Bunn, Applied Decision Analysis. McGraw-Hill, New York (1984).MATH
10.
Zurück zum Zitat S. French, Decision Theory—An Introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality, Ellis Horwood, Chichester, UK (1988).MATH S. French, Decision Theory—An Introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality, Ellis Horwood, Chichester, UK (1988).MATH
11.
Zurück zum Zitat D.V. Lindley, Making Decisions, Wiley, New York (1971). D.V. Lindley, Making Decisions, Wiley, New York (1971).
12.
Zurück zum Zitat H. Raiffa, Decision Analysis, Addison-Wesley, Glenview, IL (1968).MATH H. Raiffa, Decision Analysis, Addison-Wesley, Glenview, IL (1968).MATH
13.
Zurück zum Zitat C. Viek and W.A. Wagenaar, Judgment and Decision Under Uncertainty, Institute for Experimental Psychology, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. (Reprinted from Handbook of Psychonomics, Vol. II., North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam 1979.) C. Viek and W.A. Wagenaar, Judgment and Decision Under Uncertainty, Institute for Experimental Psychology, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. (Reprinted from Handbook of Psychonomics, Vol. II., North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam 1979.)
14.
Zurück zum Zitat A. Sekizawa, Statistical Analyses of Fatalities—Characteristics of Residential Fires, ISFSS, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 475–484 (1991). A. Sekizawa, Statistical Analyses of Fatalities—Characteristics of Residential Fires, ISFSS, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 475–484 (1991).
15.
Zurück zum Zitat F. Noonan and R. Fitzgerald, “On the Role of Subjective Probabilities in Fire Risk Management Studies,” Fire Safety Science—Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 495–504 (1991). F. Noonan and R. Fitzgerald, “On the Role of Subjective Probabilities in Fire Risk Management Studies,” Fire Safety ScienceProceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 495–504 (1991).
16.
Zurück zum Zitat D. Dubois and H. Prade, Possibility Theory: An Approach to Computerized Processing of Uncertainty, Plenum, New York (1988).CrossRefMATH D. Dubois and H. Prade, Possibility Theory: An Approach to Computerized Processing of Uncertainty, Plenum, New York (1988).CrossRefMATH
17.
Zurück zum Zitat L.A. Zadeh, “The Role of Fuzzy Logic in the Management of Uncertainty in Expert Systems,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 11, pp. 149–184 (1983).MathSciNetCrossRefMATH L.A. Zadeh, “The Role of Fuzzy Logic in the Management of Uncertainty in Expert Systems,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 11, pp. 149–184 (1983).MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
18.
Zurück zum Zitat G. Klir and T.A. Folger, Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty and Information, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ (1988).MATH G. Klir and T.A. Folger, Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty and Information, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ (1988).MATH
19.
Zurück zum Zitat D.E. Bell, H. Raiffa, and A. Tversky, “Descriptive, Normative and Prescriptive Interactions in Decision Making,” in Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative and Prescriptive Interactions (D.E. Bell, H. Raiffa, and A. Tversky, eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 9–30 (1988).CrossRef D.E. Bell, H. Raiffa, and A. Tversky, “Descriptive, Normative and Prescriptive Interactions in Decision Making,” in Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative and Prescriptive Interactions (D.E. Bell, H. Raiffa, and A. Tversky, eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 9–30 (1988).CrossRef
20.
Zurück zum Zitat H.A. Taha, Operations Research, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ (1997).MATH H.A. Taha, Operations Research, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ (1997).MATH
21.
Zurück zum Zitat T.J. Shields and G.W. Silcock, Buildings and Fire, Longman Scientific and Technical, Harlow, UK (1987). T.J. Shields and G.W. Silcock, Buildings and Fire, Longman Scientific and Technical, Harlow, UK (1987).
22.
Zurück zum Zitat NFPA 550, Guide to the Fire Safety Concepts Tree, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA (2007). NFPA 550, Guide to the Fire Safety Concepts Tree, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA (2007).
23.
Zurück zum Zitat P.S. Laplace, Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilities, 5th ed., Paris. Translation by Dover, New York (1952). P.S. Laplace, Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilities, 5th ed., Paris. Translation by Dover, New York (1952).
24.
Zurück zum Zitat A. Wald, Statistical Decision Functions, Wiley, New York (1950).MATH A. Wald, Statistical Decision Functions, Wiley, New York (1950).MATH
25.
Zurück zum Zitat L.J. Savage, “The Theory of Statistical Decision,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 46, pp. 55–67 (1951).CrossRefMATH L.J. Savage, “The Theory of Statistical Decision,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 46, pp. 55–67 (1951).CrossRefMATH
26.
Zurück zum Zitat L. Hurwicz, “Optimality Criteria for Decision Making Under Ignorance,” Discussion Paper No. 370, Cowles Commission (1951). L. Hurwicz, “Optimality Criteria for Decision Making Under Ignorance,” Discussion Paper No. 370, Cowles Commission (1951).
27.
Zurück zum Zitat R.L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs, Wiley, New York (1976).MATH R.L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs, Wiley, New York (1976).MATH
28.
Zurück zum Zitat H.A. Donegan, T.J. Shields, and G.W.H. Silcock, “A Mathematical Strategy to Relate Fire Safety Evaluation and Fire Safety Policy Formulation for Buildings,” in Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Tokyo, Japan, pp. 433–441 (1988). H.A. Donegan, T.J. Shields, and G.W.H. Silcock, “A Mathematical Strategy to Relate Fire Safety Evaluation and Fire Safety Policy Formulation for Buildings,” in Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Tokyo, Japan, pp. 433–441 (1988).
29.
Zurück zum Zitat G. Ramachandran, The Economics of Fire Protection, E & FN Spon, London, UK (1995). G. Ramachandran, The Economics of Fire Protection, E & FN Spon, London, UK (1995).
30.
Zurück zum Zitat M. Schiebe, M. Scutsch, and J. Schofer, “Experiments in Delphi Methodology,” in The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications (H.A. Lindstone and M. Turoff, eds.), Addison-Wesley, Glenview, IL, pp. 262–282 (1975). M. Schiebe, M. Scutsch, and J. Schofer, “Experiments in Delphi Methodology,” in The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications (H.A. Lindstone and M. Turoff, eds.), Addison-Wesley, Glenview, IL, pp. 262–282 (1975).
31.
Zurück zum Zitat T.L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, New York (1980).MATH T.L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, New York (1980).MATH
32.
Zurück zum Zitat N.P. Loomba, Management—A Quantitative Perspective, Collier Macmillan, Canada (1978). N.P. Loomba, Management—A Quantitative Perspective, Collier Macmillan, Canada (1978).
33.
Zurück zum Zitat J.M. Watts, personal communication (2000). J.M. Watts, personal communication (2000).
34.
Zurück zum Zitat H.A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour, Macmillan, New York (1961). H.A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour, Macmillan, New York (1961).
35.
Zurück zum Zitat T.J. Shields, G.W. Silcock, and H.A. Donegan, “Towards the Development of a Fire Safety Systems Evaluation for Public Assembly Buildings,” Construction Management and Economics, 8, pp. 147–158 (1990).CrossRef T.J. Shields, G.W. Silcock, and H.A. Donegan, “Towards the Development of a Fire Safety Systems Evaluation for Public Assembly Buildings,” Construction Management and Economics, 8, pp. 147–158 (1990).CrossRef
36.
Zurück zum Zitat W. Edwards, “Social Utilities,” Engineering Economist, 6, pp. 119–129 (1971). W. Edwards, “Social Utilities,” Engineering Economist, 6, pp. 119–129 (1971).
37.
Zurück zum Zitat P. Goodwin and G. Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, Wiley, New York (1998). P. Goodwin and G. Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, Wiley, New York (1998).
38.
Zurück zum Zitat W. Edwards and J.R. Newman, Multiattribute Evaluation, Paper No. 26, Sage Publications, London, UK (1982).CrossRef W. Edwards and J.R. Newman, Multiattribute Evaluation, Paper No. 26, Sage Publications, London, UK (1982).CrossRef
39.
Zurück zum Zitat J.M. Watts, “Fire Risk Ranking,” in SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 5th ed., National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 5-12–5-26 (1995). J.M. Watts, “Fire Risk Ranking,” in SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 5th ed., National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 5-12–5-26 (1995).
40.
Zurück zum Zitat H.E. Nelson and A.J. Schibe, “A System for Fire Safety Evaluation of Health Care Facilities,” NBSIR 78-1555, Center for Fire Research, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, DC (1980).CrossRef H.E. Nelson and A.J. Schibe, “A System for Fire Safety Evaluation of Health Care Facilities,” NBSIR 78-1555, Center for Fire Research, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, DC (1980).CrossRef
41.
Zurück zum Zitat E.W. Marchant, Fire Safety Evaluation (Points) Scheme for Patient Areas Within Hospitals: A Report on Its Origins and Development, University of Edinburgh, Scotland (1982). E.W. Marchant, Fire Safety Evaluation (Points) Scheme for Patient Areas Within Hospitals: A Report on Its Origins and Development, University of Edinburgh, Scotland (1982).
42.
Zurück zum Zitat E.W. Marchant, “Fire Safety Engineering—A Quantified Analysis,” Fire Prevention, 210, pp. 34–38 (1988). E.W. Marchant, “Fire Safety Engineering—A Quantified Analysis,” Fire Prevention, 210, pp. 34–38 (1988).
43.
Zurück zum Zitat P. Stollard, “The Development of a Points Scheme to Assess Fire Safety in Hospitals,” Fire Safety Journal, 7, 2, pp. 145–153 (1984).CrossRef P. Stollard, “The Development of a Points Scheme to Assess Fire Safety in Hospitals,” Fire Safety Journal, 7, 2, pp. 145–153 (1984).CrossRef
44.
Zurück zum Zitat T.J. Shields, G.W. Silcock, and Y. Bell, “Fire Safety Evaluation of Dwellings,” Fire Safety Journal, 10, 1, pp. 29–36 (1986).CrossRef T.J. Shields, G.W. Silcock, and Y. Bell, “Fire Safety Evaluation of Dwellings,” Fire Safety Journal, 10, 1, pp. 29–36 (1986).CrossRef
45.
Zurück zum Zitat F.J. Dodd and H.A. Donegan, “Prioritisation Methodologies in Fire Safety Evaluation,” Fire Technology, 30, 2 (2nd Quarter), pp. 232–249 (1994).CrossRef F.J. Dodd and H.A. Donegan, “Prioritisation Methodologies in Fire Safety Evaluation,” Fire Technology, 30, 2 (2nd Quarter), pp. 232–249 (1994).CrossRef
46.
Zurück zum Zitat F.J. Dodd and H.A. Donegan, “Some Considerations in the Combination and Use of Expert Opinions in Fire Safety Evaluation,” Fire Safety Journal, 22, 4, pp. 315–327 (1994).CrossRef F.J. Dodd and H.A. Donegan, “Some Considerations in the Combination and Use of Expert Opinions in Fire Safety Evaluation,” Fire Safety Journal, 22, 4, pp. 315–327 (1994).CrossRef
47.
Zurück zum Zitat S.-K. Lai and L.D. Hopkins, “The Meaning of Trade-Offs in Multiattribute Evaluation Methods: A Comparison,” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 16, pp. 155–170 (1989).CrossRef S.-K. Lai and L.D. Hopkins, “The Meaning of Trade-Offs in Multiattribute Evaluation Methods: A Comparison,” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 16, pp. 155–170 (1989).CrossRef
48.
Zurück zum Zitat R.M. Sirkin, Statistics for the Social Sciences, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA (1995).MATH R.M. Sirkin, Statistics for the Social Sciences, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA (1995).MATH
49.
Zurück zum Zitat W. Edwards, M. Guttentag, and K. Snapper, “Effective Evaluation: A Decision Theoretic Approach,” in Evaluation and Experiment: Some Critical Issues in Assessing Social Programmes (C.A. Bennett and A. Lumsdaine, eds.), Academic, New York (1975). W. Edwards, M. Guttentag, and K. Snapper, “Effective Evaluation: A Decision Theoretic Approach,” in Evaluation and Experiment: Some Critical Issues in Assessing Social Programmes (C.A. Bennett and A. Lumsdaine, eds.), Academic, New York (1975).
50.
Zurück zum Zitat T.L. Saaty and L.G. Vargas, “Experiments on Rank Preservation and Reversal in Relative Measurement,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 17, pp. 13–18 (1993).MathSciNetCrossRefMATH T.L. Saaty and L.G. Vargas, “Experiments on Rank Preservation and Reversal in Relative Measurement,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 17, pp. 13–18 (1993).MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
51.
Zurück zum Zitat A.A. Salo and R.P. Hämäläinen, “On the Measurement of Preferences in the Analytic Hierarchy Process,” Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 6 (1998). A.A. Salo and R.P. Hämäläinen, “On the Measurement of Preferences in the Analytic Hierarchy Process,” Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 6 (1998).
52.
Zurück zum Zitat T.J. Shields and G.W. Silcock, “An Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Fire Safety Evaluation,” Fire Safety Journal, 11, 3, pp. 235–242 (1986).CrossRef T.J. Shields and G.W. Silcock, “An Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Fire Safety Evaluation,” Fire Safety Journal, 11, 3, pp. 235–242 (1986).CrossRef
53.
Zurück zum Zitat S. Rahman and L.C. Frair, “A Hierarchical Approach to Utility Planning,” Energy Research, 8, pp. 185–196 (1984).CrossRef S. Rahman and L.C. Frair, “A Hierarchical Approach to Utility Planning,” Energy Research, 8, pp. 185–196 (1984).CrossRef
54.
Zurück zum Zitat B. Liu and S. Xu, “Development of the Theory and Methodology of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Its Applications in China,” Mathematical Modelling, 9, 3–5, pp. 179–184 (1987).CrossRef B. Liu and S. Xu, “Development of the Theory and Methodology of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Its Applications in China,” Mathematical Modelling, 9, 3–5, pp. 179–184 (1987).CrossRef
55.
Zurück zum Zitat R.G. Vachnadze and N.I. Markozashvili, “Some Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process,” Mathematical Modelling, 9, 3–5, pp. 185–191 (1987).MathSciNetCrossRef R.G. Vachnadze and N.I. Markozashvili, “Some Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process,” Mathematical Modelling, 9, 3–5, pp. 185–191 (1987).MathSciNetCrossRef
56.
Zurück zum Zitat H.A. Donegan and F.J. Dodd, “A Note on Saaty’s Random Indexes,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 15, 10, pp. 135–137 (1991).CrossRefMATH H.A. Donegan and F.J. Dodd, “A Note on Saaty’s Random Indexes,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 15, 10, pp. 135–137 (1991).CrossRefMATH
57.
Zurück zum Zitat Y.A. Tung, “Time Complexity and Consistency Issues in Using the AHP for Making Group Decisions,” Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 7, pp. 144–154 (1998).CrossRefMATH Y.A. Tung, “Time Complexity and Consistency Issues in Using the AHP for Making Group Decisions,” Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 7, pp. 144–154 (1998).CrossRefMATH
58.
59.
Zurück zum Zitat T.L. Saaty, The Analytic Network Process, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA (1996). T.L. Saaty, The Analytic Network Process, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA (1996).
60.
Zurück zum Zitat N.C. Barford, Experimental Measurements: Precision, Error, and Truth, 2nd ed., John Wiley and Sons, New York (1987). N.C. Barford, Experimental Measurements: Precision, Error, and Truth, 2nd ed., John Wiley and Sons, New York (1987).
61.
Zurück zum Zitat A.M. Glenburg, Learning from Data: An Introduction to Statistical Reasoning, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Orlando, FL (1980). A.M. Glenburg, Learning from Data: An Introduction to Statistical Reasoning, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Orlando, FL (1980).
62.
Zurück zum Zitat P. Dunn Rankin, Scaling Methods, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, NJ (1983). P. Dunn Rankin, Scaling Methods, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, NJ (1983).
63.
Zurück zum Zitat W.S. Torgenson, Theory and Methods of Scaling, Wiley, New York (1958). W.S. Torgenson, Theory and Methods of Scaling, Wiley, New York (1958).
64.
Zurück zum Zitat R. Kumar, Research Methodology, Sage Publications, London, UK (1999). R. Kumar, Research Methodology, Sage Publications, London, UK (1999).
65.
Zurück zum Zitat G. Rowe and G. Wright, “The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis,” International Journal of Forecasting, 15, pp. 353–375 (1999).CrossRef G. Rowe and G. Wright, “The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis,” International Journal of Forecasting, 15, pp. 353–375 (1999).CrossRef
66.
Zurück zum Zitat H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff, The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Glenview, IL (1975).MATH H.A. Linstone and M. Turoff, The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Glenview, IL (1975).MATH
67.
Zurück zum Zitat B. Render and R.M. Stair, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 2nd ed., Allyn and Bacon, Boston (1985). B. Render and R.M. Stair, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 2nd ed., Allyn and Bacon, Boston (1985).
68.
Zurück zum Zitat S.C. Wheelwright and S. Makridakis, Forecasting Methods for Management, 4th ed., Wiley, New York (1985).MATH S.C. Wheelwright and S. Makridakis, Forecasting Methods for Management, 4th ed., Wiley, New York (1985).MATH
69.
Zurück zum Zitat E.W. Marchant, “Problems Associated with the Delphi Technique,” Fire Technology, 24, 1, pp. 59–62 (1989).CrossRef E.W. Marchant, “Problems Associated with the Delphi Technique,” Fire Technology, 24, 1, pp. 59–62 (1989).CrossRef
70.
Zurück zum Zitat T.J. Shields, G.W. Silcock, H.A. Donegan, and Y. Bell, “Methodological Problems Associated with the Delphi Technique,” Fire Technology, 23, 3, pp. 175–185 (1987).CrossRef T.J. Shields, G.W. Silcock, H.A. Donegan, and Y. Bell, “Methodological Problems Associated with the Delphi Technique,” Fire Technology, 23, 3, pp. 175–185 (1987).CrossRef
71.
Zurück zum Zitat H. Sackman, “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Progress,” Paper R-1283-PR, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA (1974). H. Sackman, Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Progress,” Paper R-1283-PR, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA (1974).
72.
Zurück zum Zitat P. Ayton, W.R. Ferrell, and T.R. Stewart, “Commentaries on ‘The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis’ by Rowe and Wright,” International Journal of Forecasting, 15, pp. 377–381 (1999).CrossRef P. Ayton, W.R. Ferrell, and T.R. Stewart, “Commentaries on ‘The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis’ by Rowe and Wright,” International Journal of Forecasting, 15, pp. 377–381 (1999).CrossRef
73.
Zurück zum Zitat R.E. Norton, The DACAM Handbook, Leadership Series 67, National Center for Research in Vocational Education, Columbus, OH (1987). R.E. Norton, The DACAM Handbook, Leadership Series 67, National Center for Research in Vocational Education, Columbus, OH (1987).
74.
Zurück zum Zitat H.A. Donegan and F.J. Dodd, “An Analytical Approach to Consensus,” Applied Mathematics Letters, 4, 2, pp. 21–24 (1991).MathSciNetCrossRefMATH H.A. Donegan and F.J. Dodd, “An Analytical Approach to Consensus,” Applied Mathematics Letters, 4, 2, pp. 21–24 (1991).MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
75.
Zurück zum Zitat S. Chatterjee and S. Chatterjee, “On Combining Expert Opinions,” American Journal of Mathematical and Management Science, 7, 3 and 4, pp. 271–295 (1987).MATH S. Chatterjee and S. Chatterjee, “On Combining Expert Opinions,” American Journal of Mathematical and Management Science, 7, 3 and 4, pp. 271–295 (1987).MATH
76.
Zurück zum Zitat F.J. Dodd and H.A. Donegan, “The Representation and Combination of Opinions,” in Proceedings of ILIAM, 6 (H.A. Donegan, ed.), University of Ulster, Belfast, Northern Ireland, pp. 17–29 (1989). F.J. Dodd and H.A. Donegan, “The Representation and Combination of Opinions,” in Proceedings of ILIAM, 6 (H.A. Donegan, ed.), University of Ulster, Belfast, Northern Ireland, pp. 17–29 (1989).
77.
Metadaten
Titel
Decision Analysis
verfasst von
H. A. Donegan
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Verlag
Springer New York
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2565-0_77