Demand Forecast of Geological Disaster Rescue Equipment Based on "Scenario-Task"

The suddenness, complexity, and devastation of major geological disasters make it necessary to improve the efficiency of disaster rescue. At present, the dispatch of geological disaster rescue equipment represented by landslide and debris flow has some shortcomings, such as low efficiency, low matching degree and low utilization rate. Rescue equipment is an important guarantee for the rescue work. Predicting the demand for rescue equipment is conducive to optimizing the equipment scheduling decision, so as to improve the rescue ability of geological disasters. Based on the idea of "disaster scenario—rescue mission—rescue equipment—demand forecast", this study analyzes 87 representative geological disaster rescue cases in China from 2004 to 2019, and summarizes the matching relationship of "scenario—task—equipment". On this basis, The scenarios affecting the demand for various kinds of equipment were introduced as influencing factors, and the prediction models of rescue equipment demand based on different "scenario-tasks" were constructed; Finally, taking the rescue operation of "7–23" massive landslide in Shuicheng, Guizhou province in 2019 as an example, the demand prediction of rescue equipment was realized by adjusting parameter values, and the results were compared with the actual data of the case to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.