Democratic Resilience in the Baltics, Vol. 2

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

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2. Foundations of Societal Resilience

   1. Frontmatter

   2. 1. Defining Societal Resilience as a Defensive Power

      • Open Access

      Ieva Gajauskaite

      Abstract

      Societal resilience is a multifaceted concept that reflects a society’s ability to manage, adapt, and transform when faced with challenges. Although widely discussed in academic, expert, and policy circles, as well as in the public sphere, the components of societal resilience are often interpreted in diverse ways depending on the specific context. As a result, measuring societal resilience is not a one-size-fits-all framework. This article identifies the societal resilience elements essential for small states as they develop comprehensive or total defense models. To assess societal resilience as a component of national defense power, especially within small-state comprehensive or total defense models, it is crucial to distinguish between designed resilience (state-driven preparedness efforts) and learned resilience (community-based, trust- and memory-driven adaptability). Key attributes such as horizontal cooperation, volunteerism, and autonomous self-organization serve as core indicators of a society’s capacity to function independently in times of existential threat. Evaluation of societal resilience must be phase-specific, reflecting different needs and capacities in peacetime, crisis onset, military conflict, and occupation.

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   3. 2. Modelling and Measuring Resilience: Some Methodological Considerations in the Case of Estonia

      • Open Access

      Illimar Ploom, Viljar Veebel

      Abstract

      This chapter delves into the complexities of defining and measuring resilience, highlighting the dual nature of resilience as both plasticity and elasticity. The chapter discusses the roles of state and individual actions in fostering resilience, focusing on critical infrastructure and proactive measures by individuals. It introduces counter-vector resilience, where different societal groups exhibit mutually antagonistic resilience efforts, particularly relevant in the context of Russian influence on Estonian society. The resilience debate in this chapter will take place in conditions of liberal democratic values. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine’s resilience during the 2022–2024 conflict, the chapter underscores the importance of both returning to an original state and adapting to new circumstances. Recommendations include clarifying terminology, differentiating between minimum and maximum levels of resilience, combining quantitative and qualitative methods for measurement, and, above all, conducting extensive mapping of actual views of peoples by their constituency, including a more detailed heat map of countryside in collaboration with the enhanced Forward Presence forces.

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3. Civil Engagement and Social Capital

   1. Frontmatter

   2. 3. Resilience and Will to Defend: Foundation of National Security in Small States

      • Open Access

      Kristjan Silm, Tiia-Triin Truusa, Sten Torpan, Kairi Kasearu

      Abstract

      In the Nordic-Baltic region, small states bordering Russia have adopted a broad security approach with a comprehensive defence posture to enhance societal resilience. This strategy relies on a population willing to perform national defence tasks, including mobilisation, deployment of state assets, and cooperation with Defence Forces and allies. The interdependent concepts of societal resilience and the will to defend are crucial for national security and civil preparedness, especially in small states facing volatile global security environments. This chapter advocates for viewing societal resilience and the will to defend as interconnected facets of a holistic national defence framework. We explore the nuanced concepts of the will to defend and the will to fight, assessing their suitability for describing societal resilience. Based on our findings we recommend using the term “will to defend”, distinguishing between passive and active forms, as a measure of societal resilience in small states with a total defence strategy.

      The modern understanding of resilience sees it as a multifaceted process dependent on individuals’ characteristics and their relationship with the environment and culture. Resilience is built through purposeful preparation rather than emerging solely in times of crisis. The “will to defend” plays a key role in enhancing resilience and is crucial for achieving high societal resilience. Without strong willingness of the population, rapid mobilisation and effective defence are doubtful. The will to defend is a measurable construct that can be assessed at micro, meso, and macro levels, with variations across different cultural contexts. By linking resilience to the will to defend, we argue that an integrated assessment of emotional, cognitive, and behavioural readiness can indicate a nation’s capacity to withstand crises. Although not directly measuring operational skills, the will to defend reflects collective willingness to acquire necessary capabilities and participate in coordinated resistance, making it a valuable benchmark in resilience research.

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   3. 4. Strategies for Enhancing Civil Participation in National Security: Case of Lithuania

      • Open Access

      Vidmantė Giedraitytė, Ramunė Miežanskienė

      Abstract

      Civil participation in national security creates a collaborative environment between the government and citizens, enhancing national security. Involving citizens brings diverse knowledge and resources, making anticipating, preventing, and responding to threats easier. It also builds trust between the government and the public, maintaining social cohesion and stability. This study underscores the relevance of civil participation in national security, particularly for countries with unique geopolitical vulnerabilities like Lithuania. It identifies three core strategies for fostering engagement: establishing supportive legal frameworks, offering public education and training, and enhancing interconnectedness among stakeholders, including NGOs and communities. Lithuania’s model demonstrates how comprehensive approaches can empower civil society and bolster national resilience. The findings provide actionable insights for other countries seeking to develop inclusive and sustainable national security frameworks.

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   4. 5. Civic Resilience and Defence Preparedness: Training Citizens to Defend Their Country

      • Open Access

      Rolanda Kazlauskaitė Markelienė

      Abstract

      Citizens’ civic resilience and preparedness for national defence depend on their responsibility, commitment and state action in implementing the principles of national defence. The chapter discusses the measures taken by the State to enhance the civic resilience and preparedness of different groups of citizens. The Lithuanian case study highlights the positive and problematic aspects of training citizens for national defence. To improve the process, it is recommended that the training content be reviewed, trainers’ competence be enhanced, democratic values be promoted in all state contexts, and support be provided for the inclusion and unity of society.

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   5. 6. The Civic Dimension of Resilience: The Case of Latvia and Finland

      • Open Access

      Ieva Berzina

      Abstract

      Resilience, a concept describing society’s ability to withstand disasters, including military attacks, has gained importance in Europe amid increasing hybrid and conventional threats from various hostile actors in the international arena. It is a priority issue in the countries bordering Russia due to its increasing readiness to use military force against neighbouring countries. Resilience depends on many factors, including a vibrant civil society determining society’s self-organization capabilities and strong state and society relations. The chapter outlines the civic dimension of resilience as described in the theoretical literature. It aims to define measurable indicators of the civic aspect of resilience in the context of national security. The empirical part of the paper is based on the secondary data from Latvia and Finland—two countries bordering Russia but with different political cultures and maturity levels of comprehensive national defence, which is a defence concept aimed at increasing resilience. The comparative approach gives insights into civic indicators in two different contexts and outlines the development directions of civil society to promote resilience. The chapter’s most important conclusion is that participatory political culture is essential for a shift from a top-down to a bottom-up approach to resilience. This is possible if democratic principles of governance and cooperation operate at civil society and political levels. For a comprehensive national defence system aiming to build resilience in the context of national security to be functional, the chapter recommends focusing not only on military aspects but also on the indicators that characterize the broader social and political context and developing long-term strategies and action plans that promote a vibrant civil society and a government that is responsive to society’s needs and initiatives.

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4. Civic Culture and National Identity as a Backbone of Societal Resilience

   1. Frontmatter

   2. 7. National Identity as Ukraine’s Source of Societal Resolve: What Are the Main Takeaways for Latvia?

      • Open Access

      Gita Leitlande

      Abstract

      Ukraine is a successful instance of societal resolve as it has manifested during the full-scale war with Russia, which started in 2022. While Ukraine’s societal resolve and national identity have been critical and praiseworthy phenomena, the question for this chapter is whether they have the potential to be replicated. Thus, the aim of this chapter is to offer takeaways from a particular case of Ukraine’s societal resolve relevant to national identity and to determine whether these features and to what extent have a potential to be replicated in another society, and, especially, what Latvia could and should learn and adopt from this case study. The conclusions could be applied more widely than Latvia alone, for instance, to other European states. In order to achieve this aim, the chapter discusses the concept of national identity and what it encompasses; establishes how exactly national identity has played a role in Ukraine’s societal resolve; and lists and elaborates on four main takeaways from Ukraine’s case study and their potential to be replicated. The chapter concludes that states could and should strive for implementing all of the identified takeaways—like emphasizing civic aspects of national identity, having attractive vision for the future, and citizens having an answer as to why it is worth to stand for their state—if approached in a comprehensive, purposeful, and context-specific manner. States would certainly benefit from the citizens’ resolve to preserve, invest in, stand for, and shape the future of their state during the peacetime, and, potentially, during the crisis.

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   3. 8. Resilience, Patriotism, and Defensive Spirit in French Society: Practices Applicable to Small States

      • Open Access

      Axel Augé

      Abstract

      France’s resilience model highlights the notion of the defensive spirit. Resilience is the capacity of a system to experience disturbance and still maintain its ongoing functions and controls. Nevertheless, for states to develop resilience practices, they need to strengthen the sense of belonging to the nation. No resilience without patriotism; no patriotism without a Defensive spirit. Resilience, defensive spirit, and patriotism are connected. Their common factor: the individual and collective sense of belonging to the nation. The French’s case shows factors associated with recommendations to be applied to the Baltic States, such as understanding our national history, building patriotism from the Society, construction of common values fundamental to national cohesion; strengthening the National Guard to deal with military threats; integrate the army and the nation into a unified community.

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   4. 9. The Impact of Military Traditions and Gun Culture on State Resilience

      • Open Access

      Artur Plokšto

      Abstract

      There is a dogma that military tradition and the gun culture have been crucial in winning wars throughout history, even against much more powerful aggressors. Military traditions have played an important role in shaping the fighting spirit of soldiers—creataing esprit de corps. It is also assumed that societies with a gun culture are better prepared for war. In Lithuania and Poland, military traditions were very deep. The Finns fought in the armies of other countries until the twentieth century and had no military tradition. Nevertheless, in 1939–1940, the Poles and Finns fought against the aggressor, while Lithuanians did not. This suggests that there is no direct correlation between military tradition and the will to fight. Gun cultures were similar in all three countries, which strengthened the defense capabilities after the decision to defend was taken. However, the gun culture does not predict the decision to resist aggression. A crucial factor in the decision to fight for freedom is the will to fight, the development of which becomes a key challenge for the state.

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   5. 10. Exploring Interdependencies Between Identity and Resilience: Lessons from the War in Ukraine for the Baltic States

      • Open Access

      Shota Gvineria, Dalia Bankauskaite, Sigita Struberga, Mykola Nazarov, Dmitri Teperik

      Abstract

      This study examines the interplay between social identity and societal resilience, focusing on Ukraine and the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) in the context of the ongoing malign external pressure and manipulation from Russia. By analysing Ukraine’s resilience to Russian aggression and its implications for the Baltic States, the research underscores the role of identity as both a strength and vulnerability in national cohesion. Using a multi-method comparative case study approach, the study integrates social identity theory and societal resilience theory to explore how identity forms under external pressure and influences resilience. Data were collected through expert surveys, focus group discussions, and document analysis, culminating in a simplified comparative matrix to compare identity and resilience factors across the four countries. The findings highlight that Ukraine’s collective solidarity, trust in institutions, and shared vision for the future fortified its resilience. Lessons from Ukraine emphasise the importance of inclusive identity frameworks, institutional trust, and proactive and whole-of-society resilience planning for the Baltic States to counter similar threats.

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   6. 11. Best Practices of Community-Based Resilience Initiatives in Estonia

      • Open Access

      Kristi Aav, Ida Joao-Hussar, Tiia-Triin Truusa

      Abstract

      This chapter explores best practices in community-based resilience initiatives in Estonia, emphasizing the role of social capital in enhancing societal preparedness for crises. Drawing on 20 interviews with civil protection experts, community leaders, and NGO representatives, the study identifies key barriers to effective community resilience—such as lack of trust, skills, and non-inclusive communication—and highlights successful strategies to overcome them. These include crisis training, the development of community crisis plans, the establishment of resilience hubs, and the implementation of the Asset-Based Community Development (ABCD) model. The chapter also examines the role of digital tools like the “Get ready!” mobile application in bridging linguistic and cultural divides. The findings underscore the importance of bottom–up approaches, inter-organizational cooperation, and the need to recognize social capital—bonding, bridging, and linking—in fostering sustainable and inclusive resilience practices. The study’s exploration of community-based resilience initiatives in Estonia offers a compelling framework for understanding how democratic societies can become more resilient through community-led engagement, social capital, and inclusive governance.

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5. Psychological Warfare and Information Resilience

   1. Frontmatter

   2. 12. Conspiracy Beliefs and Cognitive Resilience in the Baltic States

      • Open Access

      Jānis Bērziņš

      Abstract

      Hybrid information campaigns exploit economic grievances and institutional distrust to seed conspiracy narratives that undermine democratic resilience. Using data from the 10th round of the European Social Survey, this chapter examines the individual-level determinants of conspiracy belief in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—states on the front line of Russian “mental-warfare” strategy. Bayesian ordinal regressions, interaction tests, and a mediation model assess how economic satisfaction, perceived income adequacy, political trust, news exposure, and political interest jointly shape conspiratorial thinking. Consistent patterns emerge across the three countries. Moving from high to low satisfaction with the economy increases the odds of strong conspiracy endorsement by roughly two-thirds, but this effect collapses when political trust is high. Trust itself mediates between economic optimism and conspiracy belief, accounting for 40–50% of the pathway. Education provides an additional protective buffer, whereas heavy news use raises risk only in Latvia. Interaction terms suggest mostly additive rather than multiplicative effects, underscoring the primacy of trust. The findings imply that competent, transparent governance, and well-designed macroeconomic stabilizers are the most cost-effective inoculants against malign influence operations in small democracies.

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   3. 13. Experience of the Baltic States in Countering History-Linked Kremlin Propaganda: A Case Study

      • Open Access

      Viktor Denisenko

      Abstract

      The Kremlin is weaponising historical narratives and using them against neighbouring countries to spread propaganda and disinformation. This is a big challenge because historical memory could be represented as one of the pillars of the modern state and society, and, therefore, the ground of the social resilience itself. The research showed that the process of countering the narratives of the Kremlin propaganda linked to historical events in the Baltic states is based on three pillars: (1) considerable attention to one’s own history and restoration of historical truth after (and about) the period of the Soviet occupation; (2) activities of the mainstream media to countering the Kremlin’s propaganda and disinformation in general; (3) certain initiatives of civil society and the so-called influencers. The strength of all three processes mentioned above ensures the sustainability of social resilience (especially in the field of information security).

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   4. 14. Resilience to Cyber Threats: Strategies to Counter Cyber Threats in Small States

      • Open Access

      Aušrius Juozapavičius

      Abstract

      Today, cybernetic systems pervade all aspects of life in our society, yet their integration into daily routines, combined with the anonymity afforded by the Internet, renders them a potential vulnerability for modern civilization. The complexity of their integration results in ever-present vulnerabilities that can be exploited by malicious actors with a single mouse click, leading to significant disruption and grave consequences. While all states are susceptible to these threats, larger states typically possess greater resources to acquire more specialists and establish specialized defence units. This chapter delves into strategies for small states to bolster their cyber resilience in the face of such challenges. A number of recommendations are presented, including education initiatives for children and the general population, building networks of cyber specialists, strengthening public–private cooperation, improving risk management for critical infrastructure, and promoting threat intelligence sharing.

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6. Conclusion

   1. Frontmatter

   2. 15. Recommendations in Strengthening Social Resilience for National Security in the Baltics

      • Open Access

      Rasa Smaliukienė, David Schultz

      Abstract

      This chapter presents recommendations for strengthening social resilience as a foundation of national security and democracy in the Baltic States. Drawing on the previous chapters in this book, this chapter identifies seven primary areas for improvement along with several best practices to strengthen democratic resilience: civic education and rituals, collective memory and commemoration, volunteer engagement, patriotism and identity, policy integration, government-civil society coordination, and public communication. It also emphasizes the importance of practical training, NGO empowerment and resilience mapping as tools for preparedness and adaptive governance. The recommendations are structured around three pillars: (i) fostering emotional bonds that strengthen national resilience, (ii) political commitment to institutionalize resilience across sectors, and (iii) operationalizing multilevel resilience through training, empowerment, and data-driven practices. This chapter highlights the unique challenges of small states facing hybrid threats and demographic fragmentation, and advocates for inclusive, culturally grounded strategies. The recommendations emphasize that social resilience must not only be a reactive defence mechanism, but also a proactive societal value embedded in everyday civic life, policymaking, and democratic engagement.

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