Skip to main content

2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

2. Demographic Dividend in the Middle East Countries: An Empirical Assessment

verfasst von : Prem Saxena

Erschienen in: India’s Low-Skilled Migration to the Middle East

Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

For boosting country’s economic growth, it is essential to know “What is demographic dividend and what is its role and significance in increasing the National Income?” During the demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality, age structure of population undergoes age-structural changes. As a consequence, a stage comes when the rate of growth of population in the working ages exceeds the growth rate of total population. In economic terms, it means that production exceeds the consumption and the surplus available could be used for economic growth. It has been empirically found that the relationship between GDP growth rate and demographic dividend is positive and its impact on economic growth of a country could be miraculous. However, according to Lee and Mason (Finance and Development, 43(3), 2006), demographic dividend is a one-time opportunity, available only for short duration of 30 years to 50 years, and it is not automatic. The latter implies that for reaping maximum benefit of this period, the respective governments should assert to create employment for the new entrants to the working-age groups. This requires planning in advance to offer jobs to maximum number of youths. For the planning, it is necessary to know the expected time when the window of economic opportunity would open and how long the favourable period would last. The present chapter, using the latest available United Nations population projections made in 2017 and released in 2018, gives the estimated years of opening and closure of demographic window and thus duration of reaping economic benefits for the countries of the Middle East.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Fußnoten
1
Mortality has been incorporated into projections by estimating death rates by age groups and sex. Where mortality is relatively high and the resulting life expectancy at birth was relatively low, changes in mortality also play an important role in future population size; when mortality is already low and life expectancy has risen to high levels, mortality has much less effect (UN 2017).
 
2
International migration is particularly unpredictable and difficult to incorporate into projection assumptions. For many countries of the Middle East, reliable information on the number of immigrants and emigrants is not available. In the absence of this information, it may often be assumed that current migration levels will persist for some time and then will slowly decline. However, still in UNDP projects, it is assumed that net flows of immigrants from developing regions will decline from the present 2.6 million annually to 2.1 million in 2050; finally, reaching zero by 2100 (UN 2017).
 
3
Net migration rate (NMR) is defined as the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants in a calendar year divided by the mid-year population of the receiving country over the year. NMR is expressed as net number of migrants per 1000 population (UN 2017).
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, 12, 419–456.CrossRef Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, 12, 419–456.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). Back to Basics: What Is the Demographic Dividend? Finance & Development, 43(3), 16–17 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund). Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). Back to Basics: What Is the Demographic Dividend? Finance & Development, 43(3), 16–17 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).
Zurück zum Zitat Miller, T. (2008, October 7–9). Measuring Economic and Demographic Dependency. Paper Presented at the UNFPA/IFS Expert Group Meeting on Mainstreaming Age Structural Transition into Economic Development and Planning. Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna. Miller, T. (2008, October 7–9). Measuring Economic and Demographic Dependency. Paper Presented at the UNFPA/IFS Expert Group Meeting on Mainstreaming Age Structural Transition into Economic Development and Planning. Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna.
Zurück zum Zitat Saxena, P. C. (2013). Demographic Profile of the Arab Countries: Analysis of the Ageing Phenomenon. Beirut: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. Saxena, P. C. (2013). Demographic Profile of the Arab Countries: Analysis of the Ageing Phenomenon. Beirut: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.
Zurück zum Zitat Saxena, P. (2017). The Nexus Between Components of Population Change and Its Impact on Timing of Opening and Duration of Reaping Demographic Dividend: Can This Period of Economic Miracle be Augmented? – Empirical Evidence from the Arab Countries. Demography India, 46(2), 1–13. Saxena, P. (2017). The Nexus Between Components of Population Change and Its Impact on Timing of Opening and Duration of Reaping Demographic Dividend: Can This Period of Economic Miracle be Augmented? – Empirical Evidence from the Arab Countries. Demography India, 46(2), 1–13.
Zurück zum Zitat United Nations. (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. Released in 2018 by the Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (DESA), United Nations. United Nations. (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. Released in 2018 by the Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (DESA), United Nations.
Metadaten
Titel
Demographic Dividend in the Middle East Countries: An Empirical Assessment
verfasst von
Prem Saxena
Copyright-Jahr
2019
Verlag
Springer Nature Singapore
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9224-5_2