Development of a Micro-Simulation Model for Breast Cancer to Evaluate the Impacts of Personalized Early Detection Strategies

Breast cancer screening with mammography has been shown to reduce breast cancer mortality. However the frequency and the age range for screening eligibility has been controversial. Individual risk based screening regimens have recently been proposed to overcome some of the weaknesses of screening mammography. However, it is not possible to evaluate the full impact of such risk based individualized screening strategies in Canadian context. Therefore a mathematical cancer control model for breast cancer using care paths and cancer control data from the province of BC is being developed to model different early detection strategies. The model will incorporate the incidence, detection, diagnosis, progression, and case fatality of breast cancer in BC as baseline to make projections of the population health and economic impacts of different early detection methods for breast cancer. Once the model is validated, it will be possible to test early detection pathways and strategies, frequencies and durations, as well as any health care costs associated with detection, diagnosis, treatment and on-going care of breast cancer patients.