The vulnerability to climate change for different sectors was assessed based on climate scenarios for two projection years 2030 and 2075. These climate scenarios were developed by using General Circulation Model. Models were run to find correlation with the observed time-series data for 10 particular points distributed all over the country both for base and projection years. The model estimated monthly average rate of change in temperature and precipitation for those locations were superimposed on the observed time-series monthly average data to obtain data for the projection years.The results revealed that the average increase in temperature would be 1.3°C and 2.6°C for the years 2030 and 2070, respectively. It was found that there would be a seasonal variation in changed temperature: 1.4°C change in the winter and 0.7°C in the monsoon months in 2030. For 2070 the variation would be 2.1°C and 1.7°C for winter and monsoon, respectively. For precipitation it was found that the winter precipitation would decrease at a negligible rate in 2030, while in 2075 there would not be any appreciable rainfall in winter. On the other hand, monsoon precipitation would increase at a rate of 12 per cent and 27 per cent for the two projection years, respectively.It was found that there would be excessive rainfall in the monsoon causing flooding and very little to no rainfall in the winter forcing drought. It was also found that there would be drastic changes in evaporation in both winter and monsoon seasons in the projection year 2075. It was inferred from the GCM output that moderate changes regarding climate parameters would take place for the projection year 2030, while for the projection year 2075 severe changes would occur.
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- Development of Climate Change Scenarios with General Circulation Models
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
- Springer Netherlands