Development of the method for predicting the resource of mechanical systems

The paper presents the results of research concerning the development of a new forecasting methodology, which has finally allowed us to solve the urgent problem of determining the individual resource of any technical systems, which has long been waiting for its solution. The solution to this problem is of particular importance for small series or single objects of inspection. This circumstance determines the relevance of the material presented in the paper. The work aims to develop a new methodology for forecasting the individual resource of technical systems, including unique and small series ones. A new methodology for forecasting the individual resource of technical systems is proposed, based on the identification of the trend model of the monitored parameter, compiled based on the results of regular monitoring of the technical condition of various industrial equipment, including small series or single pieces only. The trend model coefficients determined during the identification process are used for calculation of the required resource of the machine. The methodology of individual resource forecasting and evaluation based on this degree of criticality of the technical condition of industrial equipment, including unique and low series equipment, was implemented in a software product and used in predicting the resource of a centrifugal pump. The approbation of the proposed forecasting methodology confirmed the effectiveness and efficiency of the software created on its basis, which allows us to recommend the methodology and software for practical use in solving problems of predicting the resource and diagnosing the technical condition of various industrial equipment. Prospects for further research consist in hardware implementation based on stationary, mobile and embedded control systems of the developed methodology for predicting the individual resource of mechanical systems.