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Erschienen in:
Connectivity, Attention and Risk Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

7. Diminished Risk-Taking

verfasst von : Swati Bhatt

Erschienen in: The Attention Deficit

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Strained mental resources inhibit the capacity for clear analysis and sound judgment. Adaptation to an environment swirling with winds of technological upheaval requires agility, resourcefulness and resilience. In short, mental effort. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making involves a creative assessment of outcomes and their probabilities, a specification of relationships between resources and outcomes and, importantly, an imagination capable of out-of-the-box thinking. Available cognitive bandwidth cannot meet this challenge. As a consequence, there is resistance to change, a reluctance to adapt and cautious conservatism prevails. Conventional outcomes are observed and groundbreaking entrepreneurial activity shrinks, more from compromised bandwidth than innate preference changes.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Content Tsunami and the Attention Deficit
Nächstes Kapitel Restoring Boldness and Reducing Apathy
Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Fußnoten
1
Indulgence in behavior that is injurious to self or others is not risk-taking when the probability of harm is well documented and close to 100 percent—it is foolhardy.
 
2
The authors note that studies of individual risk preference assume that (1) individuals understand probabilities and that there are no mental gaps or frictions like search costs; (2) other factors, such as wealth, can be controlled for and (3) stated preferences are immutable to the framing of the risky choice.
 
3
The authors examine 15,128 publicly listed firms on Compustat from 1980 to 2015. Research productivity declined by about 9 percent per year, averaging across the entire sample (WRDS and FRED 2019).
 
4
According to the Kaufmann Report, the rate of new entrepreneurs captures the percentage of the adult, non-business owner population that starts a business each month. This indicator captures all new business owners, including those who own incorporated or unincorporated businesses, and those who are employers or non-employers. The rate of new entrepreneurs is calculated from a special panel dataset created from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey conducted by the US Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 
5
The startup early survival rate, an early-stage indicator of business performance, measures the percentage of new employer establishments that are still active after one year of operation. This indicator is an annual measure calculated from the Business Employment Dynamics (BED).
 
6
In fact, the impact of electricity, refrigeration, the internal combustion engine fueled labor productivity growth of 2.82 percent per year during prior years covering 1920–1970. Gordon calls these the “Great Inventions of the Second Industrial Revolution” (Gordan 2018).
 
7
Katz and Krueger developed their Rand-Princeton Contingent Worker Survey in late 2015, as part of the Rand American Life Panel, since the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to complete the BLS-Contingent Work Survey after 2005.
 
8
State–state trade flows are positively correlated with Social Connectedness Index (SCI), but this elasticity is less when controlling for geographic distance. Correspondingly, the elasticity of trade flows with respect to distance is mitigated after controlling for SCI (Katz and Krueger 2016).
 
9
On the other hand, counties where people have more geographically dispersed networks (i.e. they have a larger share of friends outside the 100-mile radius) have higher incomes, higher education levels, higher social mobility, higher social capital and life expectancy (Katz and Krueger 2016). Social ties may weaken with distance, but individuals with more distant ties are likely to be socio-economically better off.
 
11
The 2018 Stress in America™ survey was conducted online within the US by The Harris Poll on behalf of the American Psychological Association (APA) between July 27, 2018, and August 28, 2018, among 3458 adults ages 18 and older who reside in the US. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.
 
12
The working-age population in the US, or those between 15 and 65, was 206,322 million or 62.8 percent of total US population (328,327 million in Q4 of 2018), according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
 
13
It should be noted that not all data analytics provide clarity. In a survey of IT decision-makers and data managers by the data protection firm Veritas, 40 percent of respondents found an overload of management tools and systems among the day-to-day challenges in the management of data, while 38 percent found “too many data sources to make sense of” and 34 percent lacked the skills and technology to harness the power of data (APA 2019).
 
14
Chetty et al. (2017) show that upper tail mobility rates (earning at least $197,000 by age 34, given that parents are from the bottom decile of the income distribution) are 0.25 percent at elite colleges.
 
Literatur
Acemoglu and Restrepo. 2019. Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor. Journal of Economic Perspectives 33(2), 2019.CrossRef
Agrawal, Ajay, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb. 2018. Exploring the Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Prediction versus Judgment, NBER working paper 24626, May.
Alon, Titan M., David Berger, Rob Dent, and Benjamin Pugsley. 2018. Older and Slower: The Startup Deficit’s Lasting Effects on Aggregate Productivity Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, January 2018.
Autor, David and Anna Salomons. 2018. Is automation labor-displacing? Productivity growth, employment and the labor share. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, March 8–9, 2018.
Bailey, Michael, Rachel Cao, Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel and Arlene Wong. 2018. Social Connectedness: Measurement, Determinants, and Effects. Journal of Economic Perspectives 32 (3).CrossRef
Chetty, Raj, John Friedman, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner, Danny Yagan. 2017. Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility. NBER Paper 23618.
Chetty, Raj, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez and Nicholas Turner. 2014. Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility? American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104 (5).
Decker, Ryan A., John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin and Javier Miranda. 2017. Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown, Working Papers 17–17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
Decker, Ryan, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin and Javier Miranda. 2018. Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks vs. Responsiveness, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Dohmen, Thomas, Armin Falk, David Huffman and Uwe Sunde. 2018. On the Relationship between Cognitive Ability and Risk Preference, 32 (2), Spring.
Edelman survey, 2019. Survey of Technology Executives and the General Population Shows Excitement and Curiosity yet Uncertainty and Worries That Artificial Intelligence Could be a Tool of Division. March 2019. Edelman.
Gompers, Paul, William Gornall, Steven Kaplan and Ilya Strebulaev. September 2016. How Do Venture Capitalists Make Decisions? NBER Working Paper 22587. Document Object Identifier (DOI): https://​doi.​org/​10.​3386/​w22587.
Kahneman, Daniel. 2011. Thinking Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Strauss & Giroux.
Katz, Lawrence and Alan Krueger. September 2016. Alternative Work Arrangements. NBER #22667.
Pain in the Nation: The Drug, Alcohol and Suicide Crises and the Need for a National Resilience Strategy, November 2017. Trust for America’s Health and Well Being Trust.
Sunstein, Cass. 2017. #Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Diminished Risk-Taking
verfasst von
Swati Bhatt
Copyright-Jahr
2019
Buch
The Attention Deficit

Print ISBN: 978-3-030-21847-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-21848-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2019

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21848-5_7