Skip to main content
Erschienen in: World Wide Web 6/2018

21.02.2018

Discovery of trading points based on Bayesian modeling of trading rules

verfasst von: Qinghua Huang, Zhoufan Kong, Yanshan Li, Jie Yang, Xuelong Li

Erschienen in: World Wide Web | Ausgabe 6/2018

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Mining hidden patterns with different technical indicators from the historical financial data has been regarded as an efficient way to determine the trading decisions in the financial market. Technical analysis has shown that a number of specific combinations of technical indicators could be treated as trading patterns for forecasting efficient trading directions. However, it is a challenging assignment to discover those combinations. In this paper, we innovatively propose to use a biclustering algorithm to detect the trading patterns. The discovered trading patterns are then utilized to forecast the market movement based on the Naive Bayesian algorithm. Finally, the Adaboost algorithm is applied to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. The proposed method was implemented on seven historical stock datasets and the average performance was compared with that of four existing algorithms. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other four algorithms and can provide a valuable reference in the financial investments.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Agrawal, S., Jindal, M., Pillai, G.: Momentum analysis based stock market prediction using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In: Proceedings of the international multiconference of engineers and computer scientists (2010) Agrawal, S., Jindal, M., Pillai, G.: Momentum analysis based stock market prediction using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In: Proceedings of the international multiconference of engineers and computer scientists (2010)
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Atsalakis, G.S., Valavanis, K.P.: Forecasting stock market short-term trends using a neuro-fuzzy based methodology. Expert Syst. Appl. 36(7), 10696–10707 (2009)CrossRef Atsalakis, G.S., Valavanis, K.P.: Forecasting stock market short-term trends using a neuro-fuzzy based methodology. Expert Syst. Appl. 36(7), 10696–10707 (2009)CrossRef
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Cai, G., Xu, W., Zhang, W., Wang, P.: Application of E-Bayes method in stock forecast. In: 2011 Fourth International Conference on Information and Computing (ICIC), pp. 504–506. (2011) Cai, G., Xu, W., Zhang, W., Wang, P.: Application of E-Bayes method in stock forecast. In: 2011 Fourth International Conference on Information and Computing (ICIC), pp. 504–506. (2011)
4.
Zurück zum Zitat de Castro, P.A., de França, F.O., Ferreira, H.M., Von Zuben, F.J.: Applying biclustering to text mining: an immune-inspired approach. In: Artificial immune systems, pp. 83–94. Springer, (2007) de Castro, P.A., de França, F.O., Ferreira, H.M., Von Zuben, F.J.: Applying biclustering to text mining: an immune-inspired approach. In: Artificial immune systems, pp. 83–94. Springer, (2007)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Ceci, M., Appice, A., Malerba, D.: Mr-SBC: a multi-relational naive bayes classifier. In: European conference on principles of data mining and knowledge discovery, pp. 95–106. Springer, (2003) Ceci, M., Appice, A., Malerba, D.: Mr-SBC: a multi-relational naive bayes classifier. In: European conference on principles of data mining and knowledge discovery, pp. 95–106. Springer, (2003)
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Chang, P.-C., Liu, C.-H.: A TSK type fuzzy rule based system for stock price prediction. Expert Syst. Appl. 34(1), 135–144 (2008)CrossRef Chang, P.-C., Liu, C.-H.: A TSK type fuzzy rule based system for stock price prediction. Expert Syst. Appl. 34(1), 135–144 (2008)CrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Chang, P.-C., Fan, C.-Y., Liu, C.-H.: Integrating a piecewise linear representation method and a neural network model for stock trading points prediction. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C Appl. Rev. 39(1), 80–92 (2009)CrossRef Chang, P.-C., Fan, C.-Y., Liu, C.-H.: Integrating a piecewise linear representation method and a neural network model for stock trading points prediction. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C Appl. Rev. 39(1), 80–92 (2009)CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Chang, P.-C., Liao, T.W., Lin, J.-J., Fan, C.-Y.: A dynamic threshold decision system for stock trading signal detection. Appl. Soft Comput. 11(5), 3998–4010 (2011)CrossRef Chang, P.-C., Liao, T.W., Lin, J.-J., Fan, C.-Y.: A dynamic threshold decision system for stock trading signal detection. Appl. Soft Comput. 11(5), 3998–4010 (2011)CrossRef
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Chang, P.-C., Wu, J.-L., Lin, J.-J.: A Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy model combined with a support vector regression for stock trading forecasting. Appl. Soft Comput. 38, 831–842 (2016)CrossRef Chang, P.-C., Wu, J.-L., Lin, J.-J.: A Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy model combined with a support vector regression for stock trading forecasting. Appl. Soft Comput. 38, 831–842 (2016)CrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Cheng, Y., Church, G.M.: Biclustering of expression data. In: International conference on intelligent system for molecular biology, vol. 8, pp. 93–103. (2000) Cheng, Y., Church, G.M.: Biclustering of expression data. In: International conference on intelligent system for molecular biology, vol. 8, pp. 93–103. (2000)
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Elkan, C.: Boosting and naive Bayesian learning. In. Proceddings of the International conference on knowledge discovery and data mining CS97–557, University of California, San Diego, (1997) Elkan, C.: Boosting and naive Bayesian learning. In. Proceddings of the International conference on knowledge discovery and data mining CS97–557, University of California, San Diego, (1997)
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Freund, Y., Schapire, R.E.: A desicion-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. In: European conference on computational learning theory, pp. 23–37. Springer, (1995) Freund, Y., Schapire, R.E.: A desicion-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. In: European conference on computational learning theory, pp. 23–37. Springer, (1995)
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Ghimire, D., Lee, J.: Geometric feature-based facial expression recognition in image sequences using multi-class adaboost and support vector machines. Sensors. 13(6), 7714–7734 (2013)CrossRef Ghimire, D., Lee, J.: Geometric feature-based facial expression recognition in image sequences using multi-class adaboost and support vector machines. Sensors. 13(6), 7714–7734 (2013)CrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Goswami, M.M., Bhensdadia, C.K., Ganatra, A.: Candlestick analysis based short term prediction of stock price fluctuation using SOM-CBR. In: IEEE International on Advance Computing Conference (IACC 2009), pp. 1448–1452. IEEE, (2009) Goswami, M.M., Bhensdadia, C.K., Ganatra, A.: Candlestick analysis based short term prediction of stock price fluctuation using SOM-CBR. In: IEEE International on Advance Computing Conference (IACC 2009), pp. 1448–1452. IEEE, (2009)
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Hu, W., Hu, W., Maybank, S.: Adaboost-based algorithm for network intrusion detection. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. B Cybern. 38(2), 577–583 (2008)CrossRef Hu, W., Hu, W., Maybank, S.: Adaboost-based algorithm for network intrusion detection. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. B Cybern. 38(2), 577–583 (2008)CrossRef
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Huang, Q., Zeng, Z.: A review on real-time 3D ultrasound imaging technology. Bio Med Research International. 2017, 6027029 (2017) Huang, Q., Zeng, Z.: A review on real-time 3D ultrasound imaging technology. Bio Med Research International. 2017, 6027029 (2017)
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Huang, W., Nakamori, Y., Wang, S.-Y.: Forecasting stock market movement direction with support vector machine. Comput. Oper. Res. 32(10), 2513–2522 (2005)CrossRef Huang, W., Nakamori, Y., Wang, S.-Y.: Forecasting stock market movement direction with support vector machine. Comput. Oper. Res. 32(10), 2513–2522 (2005)CrossRef
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Huang, Q., Wang, T., Tao, D., Li, X.: Biclustering learning of trading rules. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics. 45(10), 2287–2298 (2015)CrossRef Huang, Q., Wang, T., Tao, D., Li, X.: Biclustering learning of trading rules. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics. 45(10), 2287–2298 (2015)CrossRef
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Kohavi, R.: Scaling up the accuracy of naive-bayes classifiers: a decision-tree hybrid. In: Proceddings of the international conference on knowledge and discovery and dara mining, vol 98, pp. 202–207. Citeseer, (1996) Kohavi, R.: Scaling up the accuracy of naive-bayes classifiers: a decision-tree hybrid. In: Proceddings of the international conference on knowledge and discovery and dara mining, vol 98, pp. 202–207. Citeseer, (1996)
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Lee, J.-J., Lee, P.-H., Lee, S.-W., Yuille, A., Koch, C.: Adaboost for text detection in natural scene. In: 2011 International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition (ICDAR), pp. 429–434. IEEE, (2011) Lee, J.-J., Lee, P.-H., Lee, S.-W., Yuille, A., Koch, C.: Adaboost for text detection in natural scene. In: 2011 International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition (ICDAR), pp. 429–434. IEEE, (2011)
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Leigh, W., Modani, N., Purvis, R., Roberts, T.: Stock market trading rule discovery using technical charting heuristics. Expert Syst. Appl. 23(2), 155–159 (2002)CrossRef Leigh, W., Modani, N., Purvis, R., Roberts, T.: Stock market trading rule discovery using technical charting heuristics. Expert Syst. Appl. 23(2), 155–159 (2002)CrossRef
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Li, X., Wang, L., Sung, E.: Ada boost with SVM-based component classifiers. Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. 21(5), 785–795 (2008)CrossRef Li, X., Wang, L., Sung, E.: Ada boost with SVM-based component classifiers. Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. 21(5), 785–795 (2008)CrossRef
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Li, Y., Liu, W., Li, X., Huang, Q., Li, X.: GA-SIFT: a new scale invariant feature transform for multispectral image using geometric algebra. Inf. Sci. 281, 559–572 (2014)MathSciNetCrossRef Li, Y., Liu, W., Li, X., Huang, Q., Li, X.: GA-SIFT: a new scale invariant feature transform for multispectral image using geometric algebra. Inf. Sci. 281, 559–572 (2014)MathSciNetCrossRef
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Li, Y., Huang, Q., Xie, W., Li, X.: A novel visual codebook model based on fuzzy geometry for large-scale image classification. Pattern Recogn. 48(10), 3125–3134 (2015)CrossRef Li, Y., Huang, Q., Xie, W., Li, X.: A novel visual codebook model based on fuzzy geometry for large-scale image classification. Pattern Recogn. 48(10), 3125–3134 (2015)CrossRef
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Li, Y., Liu, W., Huang, Q.: Traffic anomaly detection based on image descriptor in videos. Multimedia Tools and Applications. 75(5), 2487–2505 (2016)CrossRef Li, Y., Liu, W., Huang, Q.: Traffic anomaly detection based on image descriptor in videos. Multimedia Tools and Applications. 75(5), 2487–2505 (2016)CrossRef
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Li, Y., Liu, W., Huang, Q., Li, X.: Fuzzy bag of words for social image description. Multimedia Tools and Applications. 75(3), 1371–1390 (2016)CrossRef Li, Y., Liu, W., Huang, Q., Li, X.: Fuzzy bag of words for social image description. Multimedia Tools and Applications. 75(3), 1371–1390 (2016)CrossRef
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Li, Y., Xia, R., Huang, Q., Xie, W., Li, X.: Survey of spatio-temporal interest point detection algorithms in video. IEEE Access. 5, 10323–10331 (2017)CrossRef Li, Y., Xia, R., Huang, Q., Xie, W., Li, X.: Survey of spatio-temporal interest point detection algorithms in video. IEEE Access. 5, 10323–10331 (2017)CrossRef
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Liu, H., Li, X., Zhang, S.: Learning instance correlation functions for multilabel classification. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics. 47(2), 499–510 (2016)CrossRef Liu, H., Li, X., Zhang, S.: Learning instance correlation functions for multilabel classification. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics. 47(2), 499–510 (2016)CrossRef
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Lv, F., Nevatia, R.: Recognition and segmentation of 3-d human action using hmm and multi-class adaboost. Computer Vision–ECCV. 2006, 359–372 (2006) Lv, F., Nevatia, R.: Recognition and segmentation of 3-d human action using hmm and multi-class adaboost. Computer Vision–ECCV. 2006, 359–372 (2006)
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Madeira, S.C., Oliveira, A.L.: Biclustering algorithms for biological data analysis: a survey. IEEE/ACM Transactions on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics (TCBB). 1(1), 24–45 (2004)CrossRef Madeira, S.C., Oliveira, A.L.: Biclustering algorithms for biological data analysis: a survey. IEEE/ACM Transactions on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics (TCBB). 1(1), 24–45 (2004)CrossRef
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Mitra, S., Banka, H.: Multi-objective evolutionary biclustering of gene expression data. Pattern Recogn. 39(12), 2464–2477 (2006)CrossRef Mitra, S., Banka, H.: Multi-objective evolutionary biclustering of gene expression data. Pattern Recogn. 39(12), 2464–2477 (2006)CrossRef
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Pai, P.-F., Lin, C.-S.: A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting. Omega. 33(6), 497–505 (2005)CrossRef Pai, P.-F., Lin, C.-S.: A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting. Omega. 33(6), 497–505 (2005)CrossRef
33.
Zurück zum Zitat Pang, Y., Zhu, H., Li, X., Li, X.: Classifying discriminative features for blur detection. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics. 46(10), 2220–2227 (2015)CrossRef Pang, Y., Zhu, H., Li, X., Li, X.: Classifying discriminative features for blur detection. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics. 46(10), 2220–2227 (2015)CrossRef
34.
Zurück zum Zitat Rish, I.: An empirical study of the naive Bayes classifier. In: IJCAI 2001 workshop on empirical methods in artificial intelligence, vol. 22, pp. 41–46. (2001) Rish, I.: An empirical study of the naive Bayes classifier. In: IJCAI 2001 workshop on empirical methods in artificial intelligence, vol. 22, pp. 41–46. (2001)
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Schierholt, K., Dagli, C.H.: Stock market prediction using different neural network classification architectures. In: Proceedings of the IEEE/IAFE 1996, Conference on computational intelligence for financial engineering, pp. 72–78. (1996) Schierholt, K., Dagli, C.H.: Stock market prediction using different neural network classification architectures. In: Proceedings of the IEEE/IAFE 1996, Conference on computational intelligence for financial engineering, pp. 72–78. (1996)
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Song, E., Huang, D., Ma, G., Hung, C.-C.: Semi-supervised multi-class Adaboost by exploiting unlabeled data. Expert Syst. Appl. 38(6), 6720–6726 (2011)CrossRef Song, E., Huang, D., Ma, G., Hung, C.-C.: Semi-supervised multi-class Adaboost by exploiting unlabeled data. Expert Syst. Appl. 38(6), 6720–6726 (2011)CrossRef
37.
Zurück zum Zitat Tilakaratne, C., Morris, S., Mammadov, M., Hurst, C.: Predicting stock market index trading signals using neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 14th Annual Global Finance Conference (GFC’07), pp. 171–179. (2007) Tilakaratne, C., Morris, S., Mammadov, M., Hurst, C.: Predicting stock market index trading signals using neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 14th Annual Global Finance Conference (GFC’07), pp. 171–179. (2007)
38.
Zurück zum Zitat Upadhyay, A., Bandyopadhyay, G., Dutta, A.: Forecasting stock performance in indian market using multinomial logistic regression. Journal of Business Studies Quarterly. 3(3), 16 (2012) Upadhyay, A., Bandyopadhyay, G., Dutta, A.: Forecasting stock performance in indian market using multinomial logistic regression. Journal of Business Studies Quarterly. 3(3), 16 (2012)
39.
Zurück zum Zitat Wang, Y., Ai, H., Wu, B., Huang, C.: Real time facial expression recognition with adaboost. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Pattern Recognition (ICPR 2004), pp. 926–929. IEEE, (2004) Wang, Y., Ai, H., Wu, B., Huang, C.: Real time facial expression recognition with adaboost. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Pattern Recognition (ICPR 2004), pp. 926–929. IEEE, (2004)
40.
Zurück zum Zitat White, H.: Economic prediction using neural networks: the case of IBM daily stock returns. In: IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks, vol 2, pp.451–458. (1988) White, H.: Economic prediction using neural networks: the case of IBM daily stock returns. In: IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks, vol 2, pp.451–458. (1988)
41.
Zurück zum Zitat Yang, F., Huang, Q., Jin, L., Liew, W.C.: Segmentation and recognition of multi-model photo event. Neurocomputing. 172(C), 159–167 (2016)CrossRef Yang, F., Huang, Q., Jin, L., Liew, W.C.: Segmentation and recognition of multi-model photo event. Neurocomputing. 172(C), 159–167 (2016)CrossRef
42.
Zurück zum Zitat Yubao, W.U., Zhu, X., Fan, W., Fan, W., Jin, R., Zhang, X.: Mining dual networks: models, algorithms, and applications. ACM Trans. Knowl. Discov. Data. 10(4), 40 (2016) Yubao, W.U., Zhu, X., Fan, W., Fan, W., Jin, R., Zhang, X.: Mining dual networks: models, algorithms, and applications. ACM Trans. Knowl. Discov. Data. 10(4), 40 (2016)
43.
Zurück zum Zitat Zadrozny, B., Elkan, C.: Obtaining calibrated probability estimates from decision trees and naive Bayesian classifiers. In: Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 609–616. (2001) Zadrozny, B., Elkan, C.: Obtaining calibrated probability estimates from decision trees and naive Bayesian classifiers. In: Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 609–616. (2001)
44.
Zurück zum Zitat Zarandi, M.F., Rezaee, B., Turksen, I., Neshat, E.: A type-2 fuzzy rule-based expert system model for stock price analysis. Expert Syst. Appl. 36(1), 139–154 (2009)CrossRef Zarandi, M.F., Rezaee, B., Turksen, I., Neshat, E.: A type-2 fuzzy rule-based expert system model for stock price analysis. Expert Syst. Appl. 36(1), 139–154 (2009)CrossRef
45.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhang, H., Su, J.: Naive bayesian classifiers for ranking. In: European conference on machine learning, vol 3201, pp. 501–512. 2004CrossRef Zhang, H., Su, J.: Naive bayesian classifiers for ranking. In: European conference on machine learning, vol 3201, pp. 501–512. 2004CrossRef
46.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhang, D., Jiang, Q., Li, X.: Application of neural networks in financial data mining. Int. J. Comput. Intell. 1(2), 116–119 (2004) Zhang, D., Jiang, Q., Li, X.: Application of neural networks in financial data mining. Int. J. Comput. Intell. 1(2), 116–119 (2004)
47.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhang, S., Li, X., Zong, M., Zhu, X., Cheng, D.: Learning k for kNN classification. ACM Trans. Intell. Syst. Technol. 8(3), 43 (2017) Zhang, S., Li, X., Zong, M., Zhu, X., Cheng, D.: Learning k for kNN classification. ACM Trans. Intell. Syst. Technol. 8(3), 43 (2017)
48.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhu, J., Zou, H., Rosset, S., Hastie, T.: Multi-class adaboost. Statistics and its Interface. 2(3), 349–360 (2009)MathSciNetCrossRef Zhu, J., Zou, H., Rosset, S., Hastie, T.: Multi-class adaboost. Statistics and its Interface. 2(3), 349–360 (2009)MathSciNetCrossRef
49.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhu, X., Luo, X., Xu, C.: Editorial learning for multimodal data. Neurocomputing. vol 207, pp. 684–692. (2017) Zhu, X., Luo, X., Xu, C.: Editorial learning for multimodal data. Neurocomputing. vol 207, pp. 684–692. (2017)
50.
Zurück zum Zitat Zuo, Y., Kita, E.: Stock price forecast using Bayesian network. Expert Syst. Appl. 39(8), 6729–6737 (2012)CrossRef Zuo, Y., Kita, E.: Stock price forecast using Bayesian network. Expert Syst. Appl. 39(8), 6729–6737 (2012)CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Discovery of trading points based on Bayesian modeling of trading rules
verfasst von
Qinghua Huang
Zhoufan Kong
Yanshan Li
Jie Yang
Xuelong Li
Publikationsdatum
21.02.2018
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
World Wide Web / Ausgabe 6/2018
Print ISSN: 1386-145X
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-1413
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11280-018-0534-9

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 6/2018

World Wide Web 6/2018 Zur Ausgabe