Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen
Over the last two decades, a number of Westminster parliamentary countries have adopted fixed or partially fixed election dates in response to growing public concerns about the ability of First Ministers to unfairly manipulate the timing of elections. Do First Ministers and their political parties gain an electoral advantage by controlling the timing of elections? Does that advantage disappear after the introduction of legislation constraining opportunistic election timing? We address these questions by analyzing and comparing 37 years of election results in eight Canadian provinces prior and subsequent to the passage of election timing legislation. Our evidence suggests that critics of the election timing power may be justified in calling for limits to this discretionary power.
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten
Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:
Abadie, A., Athey, S., Imbens, G. W., & Wooldridge, J. (2017). When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?. No. w24003. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Alcantara, C., & Roy, J. (2014). Reforming election dates in Canada: Towards an explanatory framework. Canadian Public Administration, 57(2), 256–274. CrossRef
Alesina, A., & Roubini, N. (1992). Political cycles in OECD economies. Review of Economic Studies, 59(4), 663–688. CrossRef
Anderson, C. J. (2000). Economic voting and political context: A comparative perspective. Electoral Studies, 19(2–3), 151–170. CrossRef
Aucoin, P., Jarvis, M., & Turnbull, L. (2011). Democratizing the constitution: Reforming responsible government. Toronto: Edmond Montgomery Ltd.
Bakvis, H. (2001). Prime minister and cabinet in Canada: An autocracy in need of reform? Journal of Canadian Studies, 35(4), 60–79. CrossRef
Bakvis, H. (2015). Minority government in Canada: Conventions, public ppinion, and party strategies—The 2015 election and beyond. Paper presented to the ACSUS Biennial Conference, Las Vegas, NV. October 14–17.
Blais, A., Gidengil, E., Nevitte, N., & Nadeau, R. (2004). Do (some) Canadian voters punish a prime minister for calling a snap election? Political Studies, 52(2), 307–323. CrossRef
Chowdhury, A. (1993). Political surfing over economic waves: Parliamentary election timing in India. American Journal of Political Science, 37(4), 1100–1188. CrossRef
Clarkson, S. (2005). The big red machine: How the liberal party dominates Canadian politics. Vancouver: UBC Press.
Dickson, V., Farnworth, M., & Zhang, J. (2013). Opportunism and election timing by Canadian provincial and federal governments. Canadian Public Policy, 39(1), 101–118. CrossRef
Docherty, D. (2010). Legislatures. In W. Cross (Ed.), Auditing Canadian democracy (pp. 65–92). Vancouver: UBC Press.
Dodek, A. (2010). The past, present, and future of fixed election dates in Canada. Journal of Parliamentary and Political Law, 4(215), 215–238.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers.
Fabre, E. (2010). Multi-level election timing—a comparative overview. Regional & Federal Studies, 20(2), 175–199. CrossRef
Ferris, J. S., & Olmstead, D. (2017). Fixed versus flexible election terms: Explaining innovation in the timing of Canada’s Election Cycle. Constitutional Political Economy, 28(2), 117–141. CrossRef
Ferris, J. S., & Voia, M. (2009). What determines the length of a typical Canadian parliamentary government? Canadian Journal of Political Science, 42(4), 881–910. CrossRef
Goplerud, M., & Schleiter, P. (2016). An index of assembly dissolution powers. Comparative Political Studies, 49(4), 427–456. CrossRef
Hazell, R. (2010). Fixed term parliaments. London: The Constitution Unit.
Hutchinson, M. M., & Cargill, T. F. (1991). Political business cycles with endogenous election timing: Evidence from Japan. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73(4), 733–739. CrossRef
Ito, T. (1990). The timing of elections and political business cycles in Japan. Journal of Asian Economics, 1(1), 135–156. CrossRef
Ito, T., & Park, J. H. (1988). Political business cycles in the parliamentary system”. Economic Letters, 27(3), 233–238. CrossRef
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291. CrossRef
Kayser, M. A. (2005). Who surfs, who manipulates? The determinants of opportunistic election timing and electorally motivated intervention”. American Political Science Review, 99(1), 17–27. CrossRef
Kendall, C., & Rekkas, M. (2012). Incumbency advantages in the Canadian parliament. Canadian Journal of Economics, 45(4), 1560–1585. CrossRef
Lagassé, P. (2017). Institutional change, permanent campaigning, and Canada’s fixed election date law. In A. Marland, T. Giasson, & A. L. Esselment (Eds.), Permanent campaigning in Canada (pp. 167–183). Vancouver: UBC Press.
Long, J. S., & Freese, J. (2006). Regression models for categorical dependent variables using stata (2nd ed.). College Station, Texas: Stata Press.
Milner, H. (2005). Fixing Canada’s unfixed election dates: A “political season” to reduce the democratic deficit. Policy Options, Kingston: IRPP.
Minister for Political and Constitutional Reform. (2011). Government response to the report of the House of Lords constitution committee on the fixed-term Parliaments bill. London: The Stationary Office Limited.
Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Belanger, E. (2012). Economics and elections revisited. Comparative Political Studies, 46(5), 551–573. CrossRef
Pepall, J. (2010). Against reform. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Petry, F., Imbeau, L. M., Crête, J., & Clavet, M. (1999). Electoral and partisan cycles in the Canadian provinces. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 32(2), 273–292. CrossRef
Powell, G. B., Jr., & Whitten, G. D. (1993). A cross-national analysis of economic voting: Taking account of the political context. American Journal of Political Science, 37(2), 391–414. CrossRef
Rallings, C., Thrasher, M., & Borisyuk, G. (2003). Seasonal factors, voter fatigue, and the costs of voting. Electoral Studies, 22(1), 65–79. CrossRef
Roy, J., & Alcantara, C. (2012). The election timing advantage: Empirical fact or fiction? Electoral Studies, 31(4), 774–781. CrossRef
Russell, P. (2008). Two cheers for minority government: The evolution of Canadian parliamentary democracy. Toronto: Edmond Montgomery Publishing.
Sandals, L. (2004). Ontario legislative assembly. Hansard. First Session, 38th Parliament, 23 June.
Schleiter, P., & Belu, V. (2016). The decline of majoritarianism in the UK and the fixed-term parliaments act. Parliamentary Affairs, 69(1), 36–52. CrossRef
Schleiter, P., & Belu, V. (2018). Electoral incumbency advantages and the introduction of fixed parliamentary terms in the United Kingdom. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations. https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148117739858.
Schleiter, P., & Issar, S. (2015). Constitutional rules and patterns of government termination: The case of the UK fixed-term parliaments act. Government and Opposition. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2014.45.
Schleiter, P., & Tavits, M. (2016). The Electoral Benefits of Opportunistic Election Timing. Journal of Politics, 78(3), 8356–8850. CrossRef
Singer, M., & Carlin, R. E. (2013). Context counts: The election cycle, development, and the nature of economic voting. Journal of Politics, 75(3), 730–742. CrossRef
Smith, A. (2004). Election timing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Statistics Canada. (2016a). Table 282- 0087— Labour force survey estimates ( LFS) , by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, monthly ( persons unless otherwise noted), CANSIM (database). Retrieved March 03, 2016.
Statistics Canada. (2016b). Table 326- 0020— Consumer Price Index, monthly ( 2002 = 100 unless otherwise noted), CANSIM (database). Retrieved March 3, 2016.
Tellier, G. (2006). Public expenditures in Canadian provinces: An empirical study of politico-economic interactions. Public Choice, 126(3–4), 367–385. CrossRef
Voia, M. C., & Ferris, J. S. (2013). Do Canadian business cycle peaks predict federal election calls? European Journal of Political Economy, 29(1), 102–118. CrossRef
White, G. (2005). Cabinets and first ministers. Vancouver: UBC Press.
Wiseman, R. (2004). Orders of the day. Newfoundland and Labrador, Legislative Assembly. Hansard. Vol. XLV No. 53.
- Do Constraints Limit Opportunism? Incumbent Electoral Performance Before and After (Partially) Fixed-Term Laws
Stephen E. White
- Springer US
Print ISSN: 0190-9320
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-6687
Neuer Inhalt/© Stellmach, Neuer Inhalt/© Maturus, Pluta Logo/© Pluta, digitale Transformation/© Maksym Yemelyanov | Fotolia