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Erschienen in: Review of Accounting Studies 4/2017

21.07.2017

Do product market threats affect analyst forecast precision?

verfasst von: Marco Maria Mattei, Petya Platikanova

Erschienen in: Review of Accounting Studies | Ausgabe 4/2017

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Abstract

We examine how product market threats influence the precision of analyst forecasts. Greater competitive threats may make forecasting more difficult by increasing the uncertainty regarding future cash flows and by influencing the quality of financial disclosure. Using a firm-specific measure of product market threats (i.e., fluidity), we find that analysts are more likely to be less precise forecasting earnings for highly fluid firms and that the lack of precision is not fully explained by performance volatility. Our findings further suggest that firms with fluid products have lower accruals quality and that they are more likely to withheld information regarding contract terms and sales from major customers. Cross-sectional analysis further suggests that the effect of fluidity on analyst forecasts is more pronounced when firms have flexibility in disclosure choices. Using significant changes in tariff rates as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that analyst forecast precision is significantly lower following tariff reductions.

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Fußnoten
1
We follow Hoberg et al. (2014) and include FIC-300 industry fixed effects to control for industry characteristics in empirical tests. Such a tabulation is equivalent in levels to three-digit SIC codes, which form approximately 300 industry groups.
 
2
Item 101, C. Regulation S-K, states that the issuer shall describe “the business done and intended to be done by the registrant and its subsidiaries, focusing upon the registrant’s dominant industry segment or each reportable industry segment about which financial information is presented in the financial statements.. .. Competitive conditions in the business involved including, where material, the identity of the particular markets in which the registrant competes, an estimate of the number of competitors and the registrant’s competitive position, if known or reasonably available to the registrant.”
 
3
The results are not affected by the adjustments to the underlying data which we perform to attenuate the disproportional impacts and nonlinearities induced by the tail asymmetry. See online appendix for sensitivity analysis.
 
4
The marginal effect is calculated as follows: [β(FLUIDITY) × std.(FLUIDITY)]/|mean(ACCURACY)| = (−0.105 × 0.15)/0.33 = −0.048 or 4.8%.
 
5
To test the robustness of product fluidity coefficients, we augment the baseline model by including the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (TNIC HHI) as an industry-based proxy for the intensity of product market competition. Hoberg and Phillips (2010b) calculate a fitted SIC-based industry concentration score using Compustat data, Herfindahl data from the U.S. Commerce Department, and employee data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The fitted HHI score captures product market developments at the industry level in both public and private firms and is therefore preferable for empirical analysis in comparison to Compustat-based HHI (e.g., Ali et al. 2009). The results, which are presented in the supplementary online appendix, confirm that the estimated effect of product fluidity on analyst precision is robust.
 
6
Brown et al. (2015) show that financial analysts regard earnings of high quality when they are sustainable and repeatable, reflect economic reality, and reflect consistent reporting choices over time. Our measure of accruals quality therefore captures properties of reported earnings, which are relevant for financial analysts (i.e., variance in abnormal accruals). Moreover, Brown et al. (2015) find that analysts view internal control deficiencies to indicate financial reporting irregularities. To the extent that internal control weaknesses are associated with low accruals quality (Doyle et al. 2007), analysts indirectly consider in forecasting the quality of accruals.
 
7
According to the SEC, the justification for confidential order treatments is as follows: “Sometimes disclosure of information required by the regulations can adversely affect a company’s business and financial condition because of the competitive harm that could result from the disclosure. This issue frequently arises in connection with the requirement that a registrant file publicly all contracts material to its business other than those it enters into in the ordinary course of business. Typical examples of the information that raises this concern include pricing terms, technical specifications and milestone payments” (Division of Corporation Finance Staff Legal Bulletin No. 1, 1997).
 
8
We follow Shevlin et al. (2013) in employing a recursive path model with one mediator variable.
 
9
To benchmark the magnitude of the indirect path and test robustness of empirical findings, we also perform path analysis using other mediator variables and using two mediators. We tabulate results in a supplementary online appendix. Consistent with the notion that performance volatility increases the difficulties in forecasting, we find both significant direct and indirect effects of market performance volatility on analyst precision. The economic significance of the volatility mediator variable is comparable in magnitude to the such of information-based mediators. The indirect effect of fluidity, mediated through AQ and GUIDANCE, for instance, is similar to the estimated indirect path of fluidity through STDEV and approximately a half of the indirect effect mediated through STDRET.
 
10
Several studies use the exogenous variation in industry-level import tariffs as a quasi-natural experiment. Fresard (2010) finds that firms with large cash reserves can gain a market share at the expense of industry rivals following tariff reductions. Valta (2012) shows that reductions in import tariffs cause an increase in loan spreads by 15% to 22%. Fresard and Valta (2016) find that the threat of rivals’ entry causes a decrease in incumbents’ investment by 7.2%.
 
11
We acknowledge that tariff reductions introduce variation in competition, largely associated with foreign competition. To the extent that increased domestic and foreign competition may generate different responses on the product market, product fluidity may capture market dynamics, which differs from increased foreign competition following tariff reductions. Prior work suggests that tariff reductions indirectly increase the level of competition also among domestic firms by reducing prices of imported inputs (e.g. Amiti and Konings 2007), forcing reallocation of resources among domestic firms (e.g. Bernard et al. 2006), or both.
 
12
Products imported to the United States are coded based on the Harmonized System (HS) established by the World Customs Organization (WCO). Each product is assigned a 10-digit HS code. Feenstra (1996) and Schott (2010) develop concordance tables that map each HS product code into four-digit SIC codes. Using this mapping, for each industry-year, Fresard (2010) computes the ad-valorem tariff as the duties collected by U.S. Customs divided by the free-on-board value of imports.
 
13
The economic significance is calculated relative to the pre-reduction period, when the average accuracy and dispersion is 0.35% and 0.24%, respectively.
 
14
Additional robustness tests are presented in a supplementary online appendix.
 
15
“Why Tobacco Pact Won’t Hurt Industry — Cigarette Makers Can Easily Raise Prices to Cover Payouts,” The Wall Street Journal, September 1997; “Philip Morris the big winner,” The Financial Times, June 1997.
 
16
“.. . the competitive environment remains elevated,” M. Kessler, CEO of Lorillard during 2013 earnings call (July 25, 2013); “Our premium tobacco brands performed well in a highly competitive environment marked by continuing economic pressure on adult consumers,” Michael Szymanczyk, CEO of Altria during 2011 earnings call (July 20, 2011).
 
17
See how such acquisitions affect reported business segments of the three big tobacco firms in the online appendix.
 
18
“Under Mr. Orlowsky, Lorillard has been conservative in launching products. Earlier this month, Lorillard did say it would introduce a nonmenthol version of Newport, a move viewed by analysts as a defensive tactic in case the FDA bans menthol cigarettes, which account for almost one-third of the industry’s U.S. sales.” (“Corporate News: Lorillard Names Kessler CEO Amid Regulatory Attention,” The Wall Street Journal, August 2010.)
 
19
“Lorillard to Buy Back Up to $1 Billion in Shares,” The Wall Street Journal, August 2010.
 
20
“Why a Cigarette Maker Joined Unlikely Allies To Urge U.S. Regulation — Critics Say Philip Morris Now Backs Bill in a Plan to Widen Market Lead — A Lobbyist Visits Tobacco Farmers,” The Wall Street Journal, September 2003.
 
21
“Lorillard Taps Ex-FDA Official for Compliance Post,” The Wall Street Journal, June 2011.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Do product market threats affect analyst forecast precision?
verfasst von
Marco Maria Mattei
Petya Platikanova
Publikationsdatum
21.07.2017
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Review of Accounting Studies / Ausgabe 4/2017
Print ISSN: 1380-6653
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7136
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-017-9415-1

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