Introduction
Background
Measuring multimodality
Predictors of multimodality
Trends in multimodality
Method
Data
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Data prior to 2002 are based on smaller annual sample sizes, which can result in less accurate estimates for single years (DfT 2015b).
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From 2002 onwards, NTS has introduces a quasi-panel design (NatCen Social Research 2016). This means that half of the primary sampling units (which correspond with postcode sectors) in a given year will be kept in the sample of next year, whilst half will be replaced.
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After this successful experiment in 2002 with offering an incentive, from 2003 onwards, households that fully participated are offered a £5 voucher.
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In 2007, the travel record was redesigned, and ‘since 2014 interviewers have been provided with a list of key points to cover when placing a checking a travel diary’ (NatCen Social Research 2016, p. 22).
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In 2013, several items of the interview and travel record were removed after a smaller redesign.
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In 2013, the data collection was limited to England.
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In 2013 and 2015, experiments were conducted with the collection of short walking trips. In NTS, short walking trips are only recorded on the last day of the 7-day survey (weighting is then applied), and in the two experimental years, a small proportion of the NTS sample were asked to report short walking trip on the first day. Given that large differences were observed in the recording of short walking trips, the travel diary data of the experimental sample were not included in the NTS data.
Measurement of multimodality
Analyses
Variable | Category | n | % | Number of modes (considering 8 modes) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Age | 16–30 | 100,544 | 57.46 | 2.42 |
31–64 | 35,676 | 20.39 | 2.21 | |
over 65 | 38,765 | 22.15 | 2.00 | |
Gender | Male | 83,097 | 47.49 | 2.11 |
Female | 91,888 | 52.51 | 2.29 | |
Income quintile | Lowest | 30,544 | 18.72 | 2.07 |
2nd quintile | 30,994 | 19.01 | 2.09 | |
3rd quintile | 32,315 | 19.83 | 2.17 | |
4th quintile | 34,886 | 21.40 | 2.25 | |
Highest | 34,262 | 21.02 | 2.44 | |
Ethnicity | White | 158,814 | 90.81 | 2.21 |
Asian | 8571 | 4.90 | 2.02 | |
Other | 7495 | 4.29 | 2.25 | |
Settlement size | Inner London | 8978 | 5.13 | 2.64 |
Outer London | 19,606 | 11.20 | 2.42 | |
Other Metropolitan areas | 26,205 | 14.98 | 2.19 | |
Large urban | 44,582 | 25.48 | 2.19 | |
Small urban | 53,331 | 30.48 | 2.14 | |
Rural | 22,283 | 12.73 | 2.04 | |
Number of cars in the household | None | 70,720 | 40.42 | 2.19 |
1 car | 31,145 | 17.80 | 2.30 | |
2 or more cars | 73,119 | 41.79 | 2.18 | |
Working from home | No | 97,466 | 95.68 | 2.27 |
Yes | 4398 | 4.32 | 2.23 | |
Working at multiple locations | No | 80,486 | 95.68 | 2.28 |
Yes | 21,378 | 4.32 | 2.23 | |
Having child(ren) in the household | No | 121,252 | 69.29 | 2.19 |
Yes | 53,733 | 30.71 | 2.25 | |
Bicycle accessibility | No | 108,878 | 62.25 | 2.09 |
Yes | 66,036 | 37.75 | 2.37 | |
Having difficulty walking | No | 155,151 | 88.70 | 2.25 |
Yes | 19,767 | 11.30 | 2.06 | |
Housing typology | Detached | 46,715 | 26.70 | 2.19 |
Semi-detached or terraced | 106,361 | 60.78 | 2.18 | |
Flat or other | 21,908 | 12.52 | 2.31 | |
Housing tenure | Own | 128,074 | 73.28 | 2.14 |
Rent or other | 46,705 | 26.72 | 2.22 | |
Having a public transport ticket | None | 119,314 | 68.52 | 2.20 |
Old age pensioner (OAP) with bus pass | 35,428 | 20.34 | 3.04 | |
Season ticket | 9554 | 5.49 | 2.58 | |
Other | 9842 | 5.65 | 2.11 | |
Economic status | Full time working | 75,998 | 43.43 | 2.22 |
Part time working | 26,103 | 14.92 | 2.40 | |
Other | 24,476 | 13.99 | 2.29 | |
Retired | 48,408 | 27.66 | 2.02 |
Results
Trends in multimodality
Trends in multimodality for different groups
Gender
Age
Ethnicity
Income
Urbanisation
Car ownership and access
Trends in unimodality
Trends in mode choice
Multivariate analyses
HHI for 3 modes | HHI for 8 modes | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||||
Coef. | Robust SE | Coef. | Robust SE. | Coef. | Robust SE. | Coef. | Robust SE. | ||
Survey year | 0.003 | 0.00*** | −0.007 | 0.00*** | 0.002 | 0.00*** | −0.007 | 0.00*** | |
Age (ref 31–64) | 16–30 | −0.083 | 0.01*** | −6.032 | 3.11 | −0.092 | 0.01*** | −2.490 | 2.78 |
over 65 | 0.133 | 0.02*** | −1.994 | 8.22 | 0.125 | 0.02*** | −3.753 | 7.47 | |
Interaction between age and survey year | 16–30 * year | 0.003 | 0.00* | 0.001 | 0.00 | ||||
over 65 * year | 0.001 | 0.00 | 0.002 | 0.00 | |||||
Gender (ref: male) | Female | −0.057 | 0.01*** | −11.432 | 2.65*** | −0.172 | 0.00*** | −10.480 | 2.36*** |
Interaction between gender and survey year | Female * year | 0.006 | 0.00*** | 0.005 | 0.00*** | ||||
Income quintile (ref: highest) | lowest | 0.132 | 0.01*** | −19.992 | 5.13*** | 0.169 | 0.01*** | −18.112 | 4.68*** |
2nd quintile | 0.110 | 0.01*** | −20.177 | 4.31*** | 0.136 | 0.01*** | −18.524 | 3.88*** | |
3rd quintile | 0.090 | 0.01*** | −14.143 | 3.76*** | 0.099 | 0.01*** | −12.594 | 3.34*** | |
4th quintile | 0.081 | 0.01*** | −14.563 | 3.57*** | 0.066 | 0.01*** | −14.710 | 3.15*** | |
Interaction between income and survey year | lowest * year | 0.010 | 0.00*** | 0.009 | 0.00*** | ||||
2nd quintile * year | 0.010 | 0.00*** | 0.009 | 0.00*** | |||||
3rd quintile * year | 0.007 | 0.00*** | 0.006 | 0.00*** | |||||
4th quintile * year | 0.007 | 0.00*** | 0.007 | 0.00*** | |||||
Ethnicity (ref: white) | Asian | 0.142 | 0.01*** | 0.142 | 0.01*** | 0.142 | 0.01*** | 0.143 | 0.01*** |
Other | 0.086 | 0.01*** | 0.086 | 0.01*** | 0.077 | 0.01*** | 0.077 | 0.01*** | |
Settlement type (ref: Inner London) | Outer London | 0.014 | 0.01 | 0.014 | 0.01 | 0.058 | 0.01 | 0.057 | 0.01*** |
Other Metropolitan areas | 0.140 | 0.01*** | 0.140 | 0.01*** | 0.173 | 0.01*** | 0.173 | 0.01*** | |
Large urban | 0.139 | 0.01*** | 0.139 | 0.01*** | 0.169 | 0.01*** | 0.168 | 0.01*** | |
Small urban | 0.146 | 0.01*** | 0.146 | 0.01*** | 0.175 | 0.01*** | 0.175 | 0.01*** | |
Rural | 0.220 | 0.01*** | 0.219 | 0.01*** | 0.222 | 0.01*** | 0.221 | 0.01*** | |
Number of cars in the household (ref: none) | 1 car | −0.310 | 0.01*** | −0.310 | 0.01*** | −0.201 | 0.01*** | −0.201 | 0.01*** |
2 or more cars | −0.226 | 0.01*** | −0.227 | 0.01*** | −0.094 | 0.01*** | −0.095 | 0.01*** | |
Working from home (ref: no) | Yes | −0.012 | 0.01 | −0.012 | 0.01 | −0.016 | 0.01 | −0.016 | 0.01 |
Working at multiple locations (ref: no) | Yes | 0.024 | 0.01*** | 0.024 | 0.01*** | 0.017 | 0.01*** | 0.017 | 0.01*** |
Having child(ren) in the household (ref: no) | Yes | −0.006 | 0.01 | −0.006 | 0.01 | −0.002 | 0.00 | −0.002 | 0.00 |
Bicycle accessibility (ref: no) | Yes | −0.116 | 0.01*** | −0.116 | 0.01*** | −0.136 | 0.00*** | −0.136 | 0.00*** |
Having difficulty walking (ref: no) | Yes | 0.161 | 0.02*** | 0.161 | 0.02*** | 0.126 | 0.02*** | 0.126 | 0.02*** |
Housing typology (ref: detached) | Semi-detached or terraced | −0.024 | 0.01*** | −0.023 | 0.01*** | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.005 | 0.01 |
Flat or other | −0.039 | 0.01*** | −0.039 | 0.01*** | −0.008 | 0.01 | −0.008 | 0.01 | |
Housing tenure (ref: Own) | Rent or other | 0.064 | 0.01*** | 0.063 | 0.01*** | 0.074 | 0.01*** | 0.074 | 0.01*** |
Having a public transport ticket (ref: No) | Old age pensioner (OAP) with bus pass | −0.201 | 0.01*** | −0.200 | 0.01*** | −0.171 | 0.01*** | −0.170 | 0.01*** |
Season ticket | −0.510 | 0.01*** | −0.510 | 0.01*** | −0.465 | 0.01*** | −0.466 | 0.01*** | |
Other | −0.311 | 0.01*** | −0.311 | 0.01*** | −0.254 | 0.01*** | −0.254 | 0.01*** | |
Economic status (ref: full time working) | Part time working | −0.133 | 0.01*** | −0.132 | 0.01*** | −0.112 | 0.01*** | −0.112 | 0.01*** |
Other | 0.000 | (omitted) | 0.000 | (omitted) | 0.000 | (omitted) | 0.000 | (omitted) | |
Retired | 0.002 | 0.24 | 0.005 | 0.24 | −0.246 | 0.14* | −0.240 | 0.14* | |
Constant value | −4.855 | 1.34*** | 14.078 | 2.86*** | −3.252 | 1.19** | 13.695 | 2.58*** |