Skip to main content

2014 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Downscaling Scenarios as an Exploratory Tool for River Basin Management: An Introduction

verfasst von : Jan E. Vermaat, Wim Salomons, Alison J. Gilbert, Fritz A. Hellmann

Erschienen in: Risk-Informed Management of European River Basins

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Global change in river basins can be anticipated by using downscaled scenarios. This approach is introduced in this chapter, and it is argued that scenarios are a well-developed and suitable tool to explore the uncertain bandwidth of the future states of river basins, their rivers and occupant societies. Quantitative and qualitative scenario exercises are introduced and a worked-out example is presented for the Scheldt river basin.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Brils J, Barceló D, Blum W, Brack W, Harris B, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Ragnarsdottir V, Salomons W, Slob A, Track T, Vegter J, Vermaat JE (2014) Introduction: the need for risk-informed river basin management. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg Brils J, Barceló D, Blum W, Brack W, Harris B, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Ragnarsdottir V, Salomons W, Slob A, Track T, Vegter J, Vermaat JE (2014) Introduction: the need for risk-informed river basin management. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg
2.
Zurück zum Zitat von der Ohe PC, Apitz SE, Arbačiauskas K, Beketov MA, Borchardt D, de Zwart D, Goedkoop W, Hein M, Hellsten S, Hering D, Kefford BJ, Panov VE, Schäfer RB, Segner H, van Gils J, Vegter JJ, Wetzel MA, Brack W (2014) Status and causal pathway assessments supporting river basin management. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg von der Ohe PC, Apitz SE, Arbačiauskas K, Beketov MA, Borchardt D, de Zwart D, Goedkoop W, Hein M, Hellsten S, Hering D, Kefford BJ, Panov VE, Schäfer RB, Segner H, van Gils J, Vegter JJ, Wetzel MA, Brack W (2014) Status and causal pathway assessments supporting river basin management. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behrens WW III (1972) The limits to growth. Universe Books, New York Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behrens WW III (1972) The limits to growth. Universe Books, New York
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Ringland G (2002) Scenarios in public policy. Wiley, Chicester Ringland G (2002) Scenarios in public policy. Wiley, Chicester
5.
Zurück zum Zitat EEA (2008) Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources. European Environmental Agency technical report no 8/2008, Copenhagen, Denmark EEA (2008) Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources. European Environmental Agency technical report no 8/2008, Copenhagen, Denmark
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Parry M (2000) Assessment of potential effects and adaptations for climate change in Europe: the Europe Acacia project. Jackson Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich Parry M (2000) Assessment of potential effects and adaptations for climate change in Europe: the Europe Acacia project. Jackson Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Berkhout F, Hertin J, Jordan A (2002) Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’. Glob Environ Change 12:83–95CrossRef Berkhout F, Hertin J, Jordan A (2002) Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’. Glob Environ Change 12:83–95CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Turner RK (2005) Integrated environmental assessment and coastal futures. In: Vermaat JE, Ledoux L, Turner RK, Salomons W (eds) Managing European coasts: past, present and future, Environmental science monograph series. Springer, Berlin Turner RK (2005) Integrated environmental assessment and coastal futures. In: Vermaat JE, Ledoux L, Turner RK, Salomons W (eds) Managing European coasts: past, present and future, Environmental science monograph series. Springer, Berlin
9.
Zurück zum Zitat CPB (1992) Scanning the future. SDU Publishers, The Hague, The Netherlands CPB (1992) Scanning the future. SDU Publishers, The Hague, The Netherlands
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Luttik J (2002) Trends en scenario’s voor de Natuurverkenning 2. Planbureaustudies nr 2. Natuurplanbureau, Wageningen, The Netherlands Luttik J (2002) Trends en scenario’s voor de Natuurverkenning 2. Planbureaustudies nr 2. Natuurplanbureau, Wageningen, The Netherlands
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Van de Hamsvoort CPCM (2002) Trendverkenningen Nederlandse Landbouw. Planbureaustudies nr 4, Natuurplanbureau, Wageningen, The Netherlands Van de Hamsvoort CPCM (2002) Trendverkenningen Nederlandse Landbouw. Planbureaustudies nr 4, Natuurplanbureau, Wageningen, The Netherlands
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Lajour A (2003) Quantifying four scenarios for Europe. CPB Document # 38. CPB, The Hague, The Netherlands Lajour A (2003) Quantifying four scenarios for Europe. CPB Document # 38. CPB, The Hague, The Netherlands
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Office of Science and Technology (1999) Environmental futures. Report for the UK’s National Technology Foresight Programme. DTI/Pub 4015/IK 399 NP, VRN 99647, London Office of Science and Technology (1999) Environmental futures. Report for the UK’s National Technology Foresight Programme. DTI/Pub 4015/IK 399 NP, VRN 99647, London
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Berkhout F, Hertin J (2000) Socio-economic scenarios for climate impact assessment. Glob Environ Change 10:165–168CrossRef Berkhout F, Hertin J (2000) Socio-economic scenarios for climate impact assessment. Glob Environ Change 10:165–168CrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Lorenzoni I, Jordan A, Hulme M, Turner RK, O’Riordan T (2000) A co-evolutionary approach to climate impact assessment: part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Glob Environ Change 10:57–68CrossRef Lorenzoni I, Jordan A, Hulme M, Turner RK, O’Riordan T (2000) A co-evolutionary approach to climate impact assessment: part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Glob Environ Change 10:57–68CrossRef
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Carter TR, La Rovere EL, Jones RN, Leemans R, Mearns LO, Nakicenovic N, Pittock AB, Semenov SM, Skea J, Gromov S, Jordan AJ, Khan SR, Koukhta A, Lorenzoni I, Posch M, Tsyban AV, Velichko A, Zeng N (2001) Developing and applying scenarios. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds). Climate Change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge UP, pp 145–190 Carter TR, La Rovere EL, Jones RN, Leemans R, Mearns LO, Nakicenovic N, Pittock AB, Semenov SM, Skea J, Gromov S, Jordan AJ, Khan SR, Koukhta A, Lorenzoni I, Posch M, Tsyban AV, Velichko A, Zeng N (2001) Developing and applying scenarios. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds). Climate Change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge UP, pp 145–190
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:31–52CrossRef Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:31–52CrossRef
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island, Washington, DC Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island, Washington, DC
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Greeuw SCH, Van Asselt MBA, Grosskurth J, Storms CAMH, Rijkens-Klomp N, Rothman D, Rotmans J (2000) Cloudy crystal balls, an assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models. EEA Expert corner report prospects and scenarios no 4, Environmental issues series 17, Copenhagen, Denmark Greeuw SCH, Van Asselt MBA, Grosskurth J, Storms CAMH, Rijkens-Klomp N, Rothman D, Rotmans J (2000) Cloudy crystal balls, an assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models. EEA Expert corner report prospects and scenarios no 4, Environmental issues series 17, Copenhagen, Denmark
20.
Zurück zum Zitat IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Hettelingh JP, De Vries BJM, Hordijk L (2009) Integrated assessment. In: Boersema JJ, Reijnders L (eds) Principles of environmental sciences. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 385–420CrossRef Hettelingh JP, De Vries BJM, Hordijk L (2009) Integrated assessment. In: Boersema JJ, Reijnders L (eds) Principles of environmental sciences. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 385–420CrossRef
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Westhoek H, Van den Berg M, Bakker J (2006) Development of land use scenarios for European land use. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:7–20CrossRef Westhoek H, Van den Berg M, Bakker J (2006) Development of land use scenarios for European land use. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:7–20CrossRef
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Busch G (2006) Future European agricultural landscapes – what can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:121–140CrossRef Busch G (2006) Future European agricultural landscapes – what can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:121–140CrossRef
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Langmead O, McQuatters-Gollop A, Mee LD, Friedrich J, Gilbert AJ, Jackson EL, Knudsen S, Todorova V, Minicheva G, Gomoiu MT (2009) Recovery or decline of the Black Sea: a societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling. Ecol Modell 220:2927–2939CrossRef Langmead O, McQuatters-Gollop A, Mee LD, Friedrich J, Gilbert AJ, Jackson EL, Knudsen S, Todorova V, Minicheva G, Gomoiu MT (2009) Recovery or decline of the Black Sea: a societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling. Ecol Modell 220:2927–2939CrossRef
25.
Zurück zum Zitat te Linde A, de Moel H, Aerts J (2014) Informing river basin management on flood and drought risks taking future uncertainties in to account. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg te Linde A, de Moel H, Aerts J (2014) Informing river basin management on flood and drought risks taking future uncertainties in to account. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Helmann F, de Moel H (2014) Future land use patterns in European river basins: scenario trends in urbanization, agriculture and land use. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg Helmann F, de Moel H (2014) Future land use patterns in European river basins: scenario trends in urbanization, agriculture and land use. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Vermaat JE, Apitz SE, Blum W, Harris B, Hellmann FH, Salomons W, van Maasakkers T (2014) Framing the uncertain future: articulating IPCC-SRES scenarios for European river basins. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg Vermaat JE, Apitz SE, Blum W, Harris B, Hellmann FH, Salomons W, van Maasakkers T (2014) Framing the uncertain future: articulating IPCC-SRES scenarios for European river basins. In: Brils J, Brack W, Müller-Grabherr D, Négrel P, Vermaat JE (eds) Risk-informed management of European river basins. Springer, Heidelberg
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Nunneri C, Turner RK, Cieslak A, Kannen A, Klein RJT, Ledoux L, Marquenie JM, Mee LD, Moncheva S, Nicholls RJ, Salomons W, Sardá R, Stive MJF, Vellinga T (2005) Group report: integrated assessment and future scenarios for the coast. In: Vermaat JE, Bouwer LM, Salomons W, Turner RK (eds) Managing European coasts: past, present and future, Environmental science monograph series. Springer, Berlin Nunneri C, Turner RK, Cieslak A, Kannen A, Klein RJT, Ledoux L, Marquenie JM, Mee LD, Moncheva S, Nicholls RJ, Salomons W, Sardá R, Stive MJF, Vellinga T (2005) Group report: integrated assessment and future scenarios for the coast. In: Vermaat JE, Bouwer LM, Salomons W, Turner RK (eds) Managing European coasts: past, present and future, Environmental science monograph series. Springer, Berlin
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Schotten K, Goetgeluk R, Hilferink M, Rietveld P, Scholten H (2001) Residential construction, land use and the environment. Simulations for the Netherlands using a GIS-based land use model. Environ Model Assess 6:133–143CrossRef Schotten K, Goetgeluk R, Hilferink M, Rietveld P, Scholten H (2001) Residential construction, land use and the environment. Simulations for the Netherlands using a GIS-based land use model. Environ Model Assess 6:133–143CrossRef
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Döll P, Vassolo S (2004) Global-scale vs. regional-scale scenario assumptions: implications for estimating future water withdrawals in the Elbe River basin. Reg Environ Change 4:169–181CrossRef Döll P, Vassolo S (2004) Global-scale vs. regional-scale scenario assumptions: implications for estimating future water withdrawals in the Elbe River basin. Reg Environ Change 4:169–181CrossRef
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Verburg PH, Schulp N, Witte N, Veldkamp A (2006) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:39–56CrossRef Verburg PH, Schulp N, Witte N, Veldkamp A (2006) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:39–56CrossRef
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Verburg PH, Eickhout B, Van Meijl H (2008) A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use. Ann Reg Sci 42:57–77CrossRef Verburg PH, Eickhout B, Van Meijl H (2008) A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use. Ann Reg Sci 42:57–77CrossRef
33.
Zurück zum Zitat McFadden L, Nicholls RJ, Vafeidis A, Tol RSJ (2007) A methodology for modeling coastal space for global assessment. J Coast Res 23:911–920CrossRef McFadden L, Nicholls RJ, Vafeidis A, Tol RSJ (2007) A methodology for modeling coastal space for global assessment. J Coast Res 23:911–920CrossRef
34.
Zurück zum Zitat Eppink FV, Rietveld P, Van den Bergh JCJM, Vermaat JE, Wassen MJ, Hilferink M (2008) Internalising the costs of nutrient deposition and fragmentation in spatial planning: extending a decision support tool for the Netherlands. Land Use Policy 25:563–578CrossRef Eppink FV, Rietveld P, Van den Bergh JCJM, Vermaat JE, Wassen MJ, Hilferink M (2008) Internalising the costs of nutrient deposition and fragmentation in spatial planning: extending a decision support tool for the Netherlands. Land Use Policy 25:563–578CrossRef
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Vermaat JE, Eppink F, Barendregt A, Van Belle J, Wassen M, Van den Bergh JCJM (2005) Down-scaling SRES-scenarios for use in ecological and economic modelling of the Vechtstreek. Report IVM 05/06 Vermaat JE, Eppink F, Barendregt A, Van Belle J, Wassen M, Van den Bergh JCJM (2005) Down-scaling SRES-scenarios for use in ecological and economic modelling of the Vechtstreek. Report IVM 05/06
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Van den Hurk B, Klein Tank A, Lenderink G, Van Ulden A, Van Oldenborgh G.J, Katsman C, Van den Brink H, Keller F, Bessembinder J, Burgers G, Komen G, Hazeleger W, Drijfhout S (2006) KNMI Climate change scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands. KNMI Scientific Report WR 2006–012006 Van den Hurk B, Klein Tank A, Lenderink G, Van Ulden A, Van Oldenborgh G.J, Katsman C, Van den Brink H, Keller F, Bessembinder J, Burgers G, Komen G, Hazeleger W, Drijfhout S (2006) KNMI Climate change scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands. KNMI Scientific Report WR 2006–012006
37.
Zurück zum Zitat Bouwer LM, Aerts JCJH, Vermaat JE (2006) Winter atmospheric circulation and river discharge in northwest Europe. Geophys Res Lett 33, L06403CrossRef Bouwer LM, Aerts JCJH, Vermaat JE (2006) Winter atmospheric circulation and river discharge in northwest Europe. Geophys Res Lett 33, L06403CrossRef
38.
Zurück zum Zitat Ducharne A, Baubion C, Beaudoin N, Benoit M, Billen G, Brisson N, Garnier J, Kieken H, Lebonvallet S, Ledoux E, Mary B, Mignolet C, Poux X, Sauboua E, Schott C, Théry S, Viennot P (2007) Long term prospective of the seine river system: confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes. Sci Total Environ 375:292–311CrossRef Ducharne A, Baubion C, Beaudoin N, Benoit M, Billen G, Brisson N, Garnier J, Kieken H, Lebonvallet S, Ledoux E, Mary B, Mignolet C, Poux X, Sauboua E, Schott C, Théry S, Viennot P (2007) Long term prospective of the seine river system: confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes. Sci Total Environ 375:292–311CrossRef
39.
Zurück zum Zitat De Wit MJM (2001) Nutrient fluxes at the river basin scale. I: the PolFlow model. Hydrol Process 15:743–759CrossRef De Wit MJM (2001) Nutrient fluxes at the river basin scale. I: the PolFlow model. Hydrol Process 15:743–759CrossRef
40.
Zurück zum Zitat De Wit MJM, Bendoricchio G (2001) Nutrient fluxes in the Po basin. Sci Total Environ 273:147–161CrossRef De Wit MJM, Bendoricchio G (2001) Nutrient fluxes in the Po basin. Sci Total Environ 273:147–161CrossRef
41.
Zurück zum Zitat De Wit MJM, Pebesma EJ (2001) Nutrient fluxes at the river basin scale. II: the balance between data availability and model complexity. Hydrol Process 15:761–775CrossRef De Wit MJM, Pebesma EJ (2001) Nutrient fluxes at the river basin scale. II: the balance between data availability and model complexity. Hydrol Process 15:761–775CrossRef
42.
Zurück zum Zitat De Wit MJM, Meinardi C, Wendland F, Kunkel R (2000) Modelling water fluxes for the analysis of diffuse pollution at the river basin scale. Hydrol Process 14:1707–1723CrossRef De Wit MJM, Meinardi C, Wendland F, Kunkel R (2000) Modelling water fluxes for the analysis of diffuse pollution at the river basin scale. Hydrol Process 14:1707–1723CrossRef
43.
Zurück zum Zitat Lautenbach S, Berlekamp J, Graf N, Seppelt R, Matthies M (2009) Scenario analysis and management options for sustainable river basin management: application of the Elbe DSS. Environ Model Softw 24:26–43CrossRef Lautenbach S, Berlekamp J, Graf N, Seppelt R, Matthies M (2009) Scenario analysis and management options for sustainable river basin management: application of the Elbe DSS. Environ Model Softw 24:26–43CrossRef
44.
Zurück zum Zitat Vermaat JE, Broekx S, Van Eck B, Engelen G, Hellmann F, De Kok JL, Van der Kwast H, Maes J, Salomons W, Van Deursen W (2012) Nitrogen source apportionment for the catchment, estuary and adjacent coastal waters of the Scheldt. Ecol Soc 17(2):30 Vermaat JE, Broekx S, Van Eck B, Engelen G, Hellmann F, De Kok JL, Van der Kwast H, Maes J, Salomons W, Van Deursen W (2012) Nitrogen source apportionment for the catchment, estuary and adjacent coastal waters of the Scheldt. Ecol Soc 17(2):30
45.
Zurück zum Zitat Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds KM, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31CrossRef Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds KM, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Downscaling Scenarios as an Exploratory Tool for River Basin Management: An Introduction
verfasst von
Jan E. Vermaat
Wim Salomons
Alison J. Gilbert
Fritz A. Hellmann
Copyright-Jahr
2014
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38598-8_5