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07.10.2016 | Ausgabe 1/2017 Open Access

Group Decision and Negotiation 1/2017

Drivers of Durable Peace: The Role of Justice in Negotiating Civil War Termination

Group Decision and Negotiation > Ausgabe 1/2017
Lynn Wagner, Daniel Druckman
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Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1007/​s10726-016-9511-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Support for this study was provided by a Swedish Research Council Grant [C0114201; Registration Number 421-2012-1142] for a research Project titled “From peace negotiations to durable peace: The multiple roles of justice.” Special thanks go to Sayra van den Berg for her diligent assistance with the coding and to the many colleagues who provided helpful advice on earlier drafts including those who heard our presentations at the International Studies Association (New Orleans, March 2015) and at the International Association for Conflict Management (Clearwater, Florida, June 2015).
An erratum to this article is available at http://​dx.​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s10726-016-9523-5.


Attaining durable peace after a civil war has become a major challenge, as many negotiated settlements relapse into violence. How can civil war negotiations be conducted and peace agreements formulated so as to contribute to lasting, durable peace? Previous research has focused on the durability of peace agreements, measured as the absence of violence. This study develops an index to measure durable peace for a period of 8 years after the agreement had been reached, and evaluates the new measure using an existing data set. We ask whether impacts on durable peace are similar or different to those found for the durability of agreements. This question suggests a number of hypotheses that are evaluated with 16 cases of peace agreements. Stable agreements are shown to mediate the relationship between equality provisions in peace agreements and durable peace, and to also mediate the relationship between procedural justice and the reconciliation component of durable peace. Interestingly, economic stability is not a dividend of peace agreements.

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