Dynamic Project Risk Analysis and Management Based on Influence Diagrams

This paper presents a real-time process-oriented project risk analysis and management model which can be combined with the project general management, based on the hierarchical risk influence diagram which is constructed on the basis of network planning. Through network planning, it can solve the problems of the dynamic and overall identification of risk elements, and the showing and analysis of risk transfer along with the working procedure, and the timely and dynamic risk prevention and control as well. The influence diagram can effectively represent the risk combination and transfer in time and logic order. And it is good at the analysis of the sensitivity and control value of risk elements, as well as being convenient for communicating between experts, managers and owner. So the hierarchical risk influence diagram can make the decision of risk management timelier and more accurate. The problems of risk description, diagrams construction and risk evaluation are solved very well in applying the general influence diagram to dynamic project risk analysis. In the end, good result is attained in the example.