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2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Eastern Flank of EU and NATO – Challenge and Opportunity

verfasst von : Jerzy Biziewski

Erschienen in: Security and Defence in Europe

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The Eastern Flank (EF) is a widely understood space occupied by states located on the most eastern end of the EU and NATO, which consists of: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria. On the other side of the border there are Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova. The EF states and their neighbors are the object and at the same time the subject of conflicting political concepts to define the present and future of Europe. The economy of EF countries is classified as emerging or developed, and shows an upward trend at the level of 2.4% (Lithuania) to 5.1% (Poland) per year. The sense of security risk forced the governments of the EF countries to be interested in defense, because so far this field was marginalized. Shock caused by annexation of Crimea by Russia and its armed interference in Donbas in Ukraine, as well as a long time of fruitless discussions on the NATO and EU forum made the governments of EF aware that the credible defense starts at home.

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Fußnoten
1
60% of the RF exports by value were delivered to European countries in 2017 (Focus Economics).
 
2
Baltic States, northeastern region of Europe containing the countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea (Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc.).
 
3
Looking North-South.
 
4
GDP per capita in PPS: EST – 77, LAT – 67, LIT – 78, POL – 70, SLV – 77, HUN – 68, ROM – 63, BUL – 49. EU average equals 100.
 
5
Estonia, Latvia – approx. 25% of population in each country (See Eurostat).
 
6
Poles in Lithuania and Belarus; Hungarians in Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine; Romanians in Moldova.
 
7
Exports of EF countries with other EU states reach the level 61% (Lithuania) to 85% (Slovakia). Import is between 67% (Bulgaria) to 82% (Estonia). Trading Economics (2018), https://​tradingeconomics​.​com; Focus Economics: Economic Indicators, News and Forecasts, https:​www.​focus-economics.​com
 
8
Newly open JAMAL LNG terminal, Syberia; new terminals at airports in Sochi, Vladivostok, Samara, Nizhniy Nowogrod, Perm, Rostow, Jekaterynburg. Modernized 4 routes of Trans-Siberian railway: 1. Mocow-Vladivostok; 2. Moscow-Ulan Bator, 3. Mosow-Beijin-Pjongjang, 4.Tajszet-Sowieckaja Gawan. Highways: 2000 km section of a new transcontinental highway, which will connect China and the EU (Kazakhstan-Belarus); The bridge and the new highway linking Norway and Russia, the highway from Chita to Khabarovsk, Siberia; Krimskij Most linking Russia with annexed Crimea; Moscow-St. Petersburg Highway.
 
9
Exercise EAST 2018 (BOCTOK 2018) - 300,000 soldiers, 1000 aircraft, helicopters and UAVs, up to 36,000 MBTs, ICVs and other platforms, 80 vessels. It was a two-sided exercise: one group of forces was provided by the Central Military District plus the Northern Fleet and the opposite side was the group of forces provided by the Eastern Military District plus the Pacific Fleet. Military contingents from China and Mongolia took part in the exercise. The main goal of the exercise was to evaluate the level of preparation of the Command and Control system for planning and execution of the troops’ regrouping over a long distances and synchronization of activities between the army and naval formations. Locations and forces designed for exercises indicate that the potential threat was Japan.
 
10
See exercise ZAPAD 2017 (WEST 2017).The strategic exercise took place in Belarus and Russia (the Western Military District, the Northern Fleet District and the Central Military District). According to NATO analysts’ estimates approximately 60 000 Russian troops took part in the exercise (12 000 in Belarus, 42 000 in Russia). The official scenario involved defending against terrorist formations incursing from “Veshnoriya” state (geografically reflecting the Baltic States) being supported by massive air raids. Despite this official scenario ZAPAD 2017 can be described as a drill about a limited conventional operation against an equally conventional and advanced enemy (NATO forces). The exercise focused on evaluation of the Command and Control system and integration of forces, putting an accent on A2AD and CBRN operations. 
 
11
MGIMO – Московский государственный институт международных отношений - Moscow National Institute on International Relations.
 
12
The Ukrainian Armed Forces count approx. 182,000–200,000 professional soldiers, mostly experienced in battles in the east of the country plus significant reserves allowing mobilization in the event of a major conflict. Defense expenditures has increased from 2,5 to 3.8% of GDP (2,6 bn US dollars, planning figure for 2019 is 6,84 bn US dollars). Ukrainian land forces received support in equipment and training from abroad, including radar detection systems of enemy artillery AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder from the USA. (added ref: Orlikowski P., Walka Dawida z Goliatem. Rosja jest zbyt potężna dla Ukrainy. https://​www.​money.​pl/​gospodarka/​wiadomosci/​artykul/​walka-dawida-z-goliatem-rosja-jest-zbyt,141,0,2422413.​html)
 
13
In the first half of 2018, the light industry exports increased by 20%. 60% of Ukrainians are for joining the EU with 15% opposed to this idea. The presence in NATO is supported by 45% of citizens. Gas production grows for seventh month in a row.
 
14
Estonia supports Ukraine in medical training for military personnel and disaster services as well as provides with medical kits. Lithuania provides financial support to the NATO Trust Funds for Ukraine, including medical rehabilitation as well as supplies weapons and ammunition and trains Ukrainian instructors. In years 2016–2017 Poland provided over one billion cm of gas and supports Ukraine in the form of small grants and scholarship programs, It is a third donator – after USA i Canada – directing the greatest assistance to the Ukrainian armed forces in the form of money for uniforms, individual equipment of soldiers, packed meals and medical supplies. Poland also granted loans (EUR 68 million in 2016), from which construction and road repairs in the west of Ukraine are financed. Approximately one million Ukrainians have been allowed to learn and work in Poland last 2 years. A group of Polish experts who advise on matters of decentralization of power, independence of self-governments, economy reform and infrastructure work at the government of Ukraine. Lithuania and Poland provide members of the international advisory group on security–sector reform at Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense alongside representatives of the USA and Canada. Lithuanian and Polish soldiers cooperate with Ukrainian units as part of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade (LITPOLUKRBRIG). Romania provided Ukraine with military assistance in the amount of 250,000 euro in 2016 and assumed the function of the state coordinator of the NATO fund for cyber strengthening of Ukraine.
 
15
750,000 people left for work, which equals 21% of the population.
 
16
W 2016 r. Export/import: Romania $1, 64 billion, Russia $768 million, Germany $430 million.
 
17
In 2014, at the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi W. Putin stated: “Russia does not ask anyone about how to conduct its global policy” and “Russian bear won’t ask for permission”.
 
18
For example, Russia makes it difficult to investigate the plane crash in Smolensk in 2010, when the President of Poland and the official delegation died. Basic evidence in the case has not yet been handed over to the Polish side.
 
19
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Market Index lists Hungary and Poland as emerging markets. Other EF countries can be classified as Frontier Markets.
 
20
The Tri-Sea initiative: 12 countries located between the Baltic, the Black Sea and the Adriatic Sea (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Austria, Croatia, Slovenia) signed a declaration on cooperation. It provides platform for the development of infrastructure to create a common gas market in order to improve security of supply and competition. Germany supports the project and is considering participating in the initiative.
 
21
The gas was imported in 100% from Russia to Estonia (0.5 bcm), Latvia (1.2 bcm), Lithuania (2.5 bcm), Hungary (8.5 bcm), Bulgaria (2.5 bcm), Romania (11.8 bcm). Slovakia and Poland imported Russian gas at the level of 95% of 4.5 bcm and 76% of 16 bcm respectively.
 
22
Poland extracts approx. 4 bcm, gas storage capacity is 2.9 bcm, and its annual consumption is 16 bcm.
 
23
Via Carpatia will be approx. 7700 km long.
 
24
In 2017 the B9 spent around $24 billion. Poland outweighed all its B9 partners with a budget of $11.5 billion, second was Romania with $3.7 billion. The remaining six countries spent between $500 million and $1.6 billion.
 
25
The USA defense budget reached $610 billion.
 
26
NRF: Three land brigades plus enablers at 5–45 days readiness status, air and navy components, all together approx. 40,000 troops.
 
27
Four 30s. By 2020, NATO countries are to have at their disposal 30 major naval combatants, 30 heavy or medium manoeuvre battalions and 30 kinetic air squadrons at the readiness status 30 days or less, together with enabling forces.
 
28
Central Europe Horizon 2020 is EU Research and Innovation program with approx. Euro 80 billion of funding available in years 2014–2020.
 
Literatur
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Estonia, Finland, Latvia looking to develop unmanned land systems in framework of PESCO. International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics, 20.09.2018 Estonia, Finland, Latvia looking to develop unmanned land systems in framework of PESCO. International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics, 20.09.2018
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Zurück zum Zitat Rotfeld AD (2018) W poszukiwaniu strategii. BOSZ, Olszanica Rotfeld AD (2018) W poszukiwaniu strategii. BOSZ, Olszanica
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Zurück zum Zitat RT Question More, Russian bear won’t ask for permission, 24.10.2014. https://www.rt.com.news.199000 RT Question More, Russian bear won’t ask for permission, 24.10.2014. https://​www.​rt.​com.​news.​199000
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Zurück zum Zitat Wiadomości.wp.pl. Wiceszef niemieckiego MSZ – Polska nie zmierza ku rządom autorytarnym. 2018. https://wiadomości.wp.pl/wiceszef-niemieckiego-msz-polska-nie-zmierza-ku-rzadom-autorytarnym Wiadomości.wp.pl. Wiceszef niemieckiego MSZ – Polska nie zmierza ku rządom autorytarnym. 2018. https://​wiadomości.​wp.​pl/​wiceszef-niemieckiego-msz-polska-nie-zmierza-ku-rzadom-autorytarnym
61.
Zurück zum Zitat Winiecki J. Flirciarz Łukaszenka. Polityka nr 39 (3179), 26.09–02.10.2018 Winiecki J. Flirciarz Łukaszenka. Polityka nr 39 (3179), 26.09–02.10.2018
Metadaten
Titel
Eastern Flank of EU and NATO – Challenge and Opportunity
verfasst von
Jerzy Biziewski
Copyright-Jahr
2020
Verlag
Springer International Publishing
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12293-5_14