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Über dieses Buch

This book examines the uneven economy in Asia, showing how the pace of economic transformation affects prosperity and the emerging middle class. Using the Lewis turning point and the long run cycle of the rise and fall of nations as a framework, it demonstrates how demographic trends, digitization rates and consumer preferences creates business opportunities in a disruptive and uncertain world. This includes moves toward promoting Eurasian integration, restructuring of state-owned enterprises, green economy, and the digital economies – ecommerce, fintech and sharing economy. Vanity capital, longevity and leisure economies are also discussed. The author explains what drives creative disruption, technical innovation and their effect on manufacturing, consumers, businesses, and sustainability. It is essential reading for students, academics, executives, and business persons wanting in-depth coverage of the economic landscape in Asia.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Asia’s Economic Transformation in a Disruptive and Uncertain World

Abstract
The different paces of economic transformation among Asian nations have created different levels of prosperity and emerging middle classes. The Lewis Turning Point provides lucrative insights into this dynamic in a disruptive and uncertain world. Demographic trends, digitalization rates, consumer preferences, and levels of sophistication differ greatly among Asia’s nations. This creates different business opportunities. Vanity capital and the longevity and leisure economies present fresh niches to be developed. Public reform policy, technological innovation, and disruptive forces matter too. Especially in China, India, and ASEAN, governments are trying to create jobs and open up new frontiers for sustainable economic growth by pursuing Eurasian integration, state-owned enterprise restructuring, low carbon-related business, and the digital economy.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 2. Life Under the “New Normal”

Abstract
Combining two powerful concepts, the Lewis Turning Point and the long-run cycle of the rise and fall of nations, provides a simple framework to better understand how Asia works economically. The world’s “new normal” setting is for subpar growth, low inflation, and low interest rates after the 2008 global financial crisis. Productivity, indebtedness, and “luck” are the three main determinants of the relative performance of nations. People evolve psychologically with the dynamics of national economic development, an interplay that influences their choices to work, consume, or pursue leisure. And all this is subject to disruptions and uncertainties such as political polarization, technological advances, and the new presidency of Donald Trump. Successful investment and business strategy and policymaking require understanding these dynamics.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 3. Asia’s Vanity Capital

Abstract
The longevity dividend, massive wealth accumulation from the boom years, and fizzy capital markets from quantitative easing policies are psychologically fueling Asia’s “envy market.” This vanity capital market, especially the non-luxury and mid-market segments, is a high-growth, innovative niche market catering to people seeking new lifestyles and better quality of life. Industrialization, urbanization, and digitalization have given rise to Asia’s middle class and new riches and democratized the luxury market, but there are different preferences in rural vs urban areas and in pre-Lewis Turning Point vs post-LTP countries. Social media and online commerce make narcissism pervasive and easy to satisfy. Millennials in China, India, and ASEAN are trading up for luxury and experiential goods including beauty care and fashions. Business strategies to capitalize on this “upgrader” phenomenon, from branding to omni-channels to premium pricing, are discussed.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 4. Asia’s Longevity Economy

Abstract
As Asian economies advance while their populations age, the “longevity dividend” is creating an enormous value chain based on the pursuit of health and quality of life. The 15 trillion global market for the elderly comprises mainly pharmaceuticals and healthcare for chronic and non-communicable diseases. The market serving seniors over 50 is the largest sector as boomers start to retire and live longer. It includes anti-aging and wellness products and retirement homes. Alternative medicine, alternative medicine delivery, eHealth, senior workforces, and changing lifestyles present business opportunities and policy challenges. Longevity risk is being seriously underestimated. To avert financial crises from underfunded pension and retirement systems, new designs are needed. Asia’s underdeveloped insurance markets offer huge opportunities for private and public provident funds.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 5. Asia’s Leisure Economy: Creating Economic and Social Value

Abstract
Industrialization in Asia has fostered the rise of middle classes in a “time-crunch” economy that values leisure. Asia’s leisure economy is growing rapidly also as a result of a demographic shift, with boomers getting older and millennials getting richer. Technological advances are accelerating this process. Digitalization and innovation are spurring higher productivity and flexibility, creating “time-abundant” lifestyles. Urbanization with leisure economy clusters is a new trend that creates shared value and community-based economic growth. Following the experience of Japan and South Korea, China, Southeast Asia, and India will drive the global leisure economy from travel to tourism, culture to sports, food to wellness. Policymakers and businesses must address the imbalance between insufficient supply and growing demand in the leisure economy.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 6. Government Initiative Drive I: Connecting the Region, Building Infrastructure and Cities

Abstract
Asian countries are pursuing urbanization and regional connectivity to open new channels for multi-year sustained growth. Low-income countries like India are upgrading manufacturing and China and middle-income Southeast Asian countries are shifting toward higher-value-added production. By deepening regional integration, Asia’s diverse countries are exploiting their comparative advantages and jointly converging into the world’s most potent economic bloc. Big government strategies include Make in India, China’s One Belt, One Road, Made in China and proposed regional trade pact, and the ASEAN Economic Community and Greater Mekong Sub-region development. Governments are building infrastructure linking countries, along with cities to absorb rural migrants and slum dwellers, in the process creating economies of agglomeration and colossal consumer markets.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 7. Government Initiative Drive II: Public DebtDebt public debt public assets/public propert/ public wealth Reform , Public Wealth, and State Enterprise Reform

Abstract
Asia’s public debt and public wealth are in relatively better shape than in the overleveraged West. But public real estate needs to be unlocked for wealth creation. National and sovereign wealth funds should be institutionalized to properly manage public commercial property and financial assets. China, ASEAN, and India face near-term challenges as they use market-based tools in restructuring their economies to boost productivity. China’s state-owned enterprises are a disruptive force on the global economy. China, India, and other Asian countries are actively acquiring assets abroad, strategically merging SOEs, and making adjustments to ease industrial overcapacity. They see urbanization, infrastructure buildup, innovation, and upgrading industry as the keys to multi-year growth driven by improved productivity.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 8. Asia’s Digital Economy

Abstract
The Asian Century cannot rise without value creation, innovation, and financial transformation. Mobile phones, smart devices, e-commerce, software applications, fintech, and robotics are basic features of the new economy that China, Japan, and South Korea are creating for multiple-year productivity growth. Asia adopts these creative disruptions early on, then innovates, and scales them up into global leaders. Digital finance, digital identification, social media, and big data are the four digital enablers that Asia has developed well, along with broadband internet connectivity. The digital economy is flourishing in Asia because of its large and young populations and rising middle classes, especially in China, India, and ASEAN. It is transforming both urban and rural areas in pre- and post-LTP countries.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Chapter 9. Asia’s Low-Carbon Economy

Abstract
The Asian Century cannot be realized without transforming the region’s energy systems. Economically accelerating pre-Lewis Turning Point nations like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are pushing for energy self-sufficiency. Slowing down post-LTP nations like China, South Korea, and Japan are shifting from coal and oil to renewable energy and the low-carbon economy. The global oversupply in liquefied natural gas benefits Asia, a net energy importer, especially India and Thailand. Asia is the largest market for renewable energy – solar, wind, and hydro. China is the largest market for electric vehicles. Japan and South Korea have the highest EVs penetration. In the lithium-ion age, Asia’s energy systems will be decentralized on smart grids and for consumer, commercial, and industrial use.
Pongsak Hoontrakul

Backmatter

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