Wildfires are natural components of arid and semi-arid ecosystems, yet climate change is amplifying their intensity and frequency, posing serious threats to ecosystem services essential for human well-being. This study presents a novel approach to reduce risk and protect ecosystem services under threat from flammability and climate change. In this regard, ten ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, heritage, food crops, livestock rates, shelter function, recreation, water production, soil formation, soil conservation, and beekeeping) were mapped using field data, the InVEST model, and GIS-based spatial analysis. Flammability and climate change risk were quantified using plant functional traits and environmental indicators. The results showed that the degree of climate change risk, flammability, and vulnerability of ecosystem services differed significantly between different land covers (p < 0.05). Water production and beekeeping were most threatened by climate change, while carbon sequestration, food, and livestock rates were most affected by fire. Through simplified causal-path analysis, we identified key drivers influencing the resilience of ecosystem services, and correlation analysis revealed that local environmental conditions can enhance service stability under disturbance. Overall, our findings provide a practical and transferable framework for forecasting vulnerabilities, reducing risk, and informing preventive and adaptive strategies that support both human well-being and long-term ecosystem sustainability.
