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2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

2. Electric Vehicles: Approaching the Tipping Point

verfasst von : Daniel Sperling

Erschienen in: Three Revolutions

Verlag: Island Press/Center for Resource Economics

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Abstract

In the last three decades, electric vehicles (EVs) have vastly improved in every way—in cost, performance, efficiency, and availability to consumers. My own history with EVs shows how much.

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Fußnoten
1
Chinese sales of new-energy vehicles in 2016 totaled 507,000, consisting of 409,000 all-electric vehicles and 98,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles (many of these trucks and buses), according to Liu Wanxiang, “中汽协: 2016年新能源汽车产销量均超50万辆,同比增速约50%” [China Auto Association: 2016 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Were over 500,000, an Increase of About 50%], D1EV, accessed 12 January 2017.
 
2
Surveys and interviews were conducted in eight states. The two principal reports are Kenneth Kurani et al., “New Car Buyers’ Valuation of Zero-Emission Vehicles: California,” Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-16-05, 2016; and Kenneth Kurani and Nicolette Caperello, “New Car Buyers’ Valuation of Zero-Emission Vehicles: Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM),” Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-16-16, 2016.
 
3
Bertel Schmitt, “There Is a Lot of EV Talk in Europe. And Very Little Buying,” Forbes, 6 October 2016.
 
4
Dana Hull, “Tesla Deliveries Miss Forecasts Again on Production Delays,” Bloomberg Markets, 3 January 2017.
 
5
Yunshi Wang et al., “China’s Electric Car Surge,” Energy Policy 102 (March 2017): 486–90.
 
6
R. Sims et al., “Transport,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change; Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. O. Edenhofer et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 599–670.
 
7
Damian Carrington, “Electric Cars ‘Will Be Cheaper than Conventional Vehicles by 2022,’” The Guardian, 25 February 2016.
 
8
Craig Morris, “India Joins Norway and Netherlands in Wanting 100% Electric Vehicles,” RenewEconomy, 4 April 2016; PTI, “India Looks to Put Hybrid and Electric Vehicles on the Fast Track in 2016,” The Times of India, 29 December 2015.
 
9
Bertel Schmitt, “Germany’s Bundesrat Resolves End of Internal Combustion Engine,” Forbes, 8 October 2016.
 
10
Mark Singer, “Consumer Views on Plug-In Electric Vehicles—National Benchmark Report,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Technical Report NREL/TP-5400-65279, January 2016.
 
11
International Energy Agency, “A Brief History of Electric Vehicles,” in Global EV Outlook: Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020 (Paris, France: IEA, April 2013); “Electric Vehicles History Part II: Early History,” Electric Vehicles News, accessed 3 September 2017.
 
12
The following historical review is from Daniel Sperling, Future Drive (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1995), 36–37.
 
13
This discussion of CARB and the early years of the ZEV mandate borrows heavily from “California’s Pioneering Role,” in Two Billion Cars, by Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), ch. 7; and Gustavo Collantes and Daniel Sperling, “The Origin of California’s Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate,” Transportation Research Part A 42 (2008): 1302–13.
 
14
The European Union has been the world leader in enacting climate policy. It adopted (voluntary) carbon dioxide standards for vehicles in 1998 and launched a cap-and-trade program for major stationary sources in 2005 and various other measures after that. California’s 2006 global warming law is broader, requiring reductions across the entire economy, but those rules weren’t enacted until 2010 and beyond. Also, as a state within a nation, California has limited jurisdiction over ocean shipping, aviation, and other activities that cross state borders.
 
15
A later version of the EV1 was outfitted with nickel-metal-hydride batteries that provided 26 kWh of capacity and doubled the range, but only about four hundred cars were produced with these batteries.
 
16
“General Motors EV1,” Wikipedia entry, last modified 23 July 2017.
 
17
See Levi Tillemann, The Great Race: The Global Quest for the Car of the Future (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2015).
 
18
Max Fawcett, “Is Tesla’s Model-S the Beginning of the End for Oil?,” Alberta Oil, 2 July 2015.
 
19
Keith Naughton, “Bob Lutz: The Man Who Revived the Electric Car,” Newsweek, 22 December 2007.
 
20
Fawcett, “Tesla’s Model-S.”
 
21
David Reichmuth and Don Anair, “Electrifying the Vehicle Market: Evaluating Automaker Leaders and Laggards in the United States,” Union of Concerned Scientists, August 2016.
 
22
“The Week That Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream,” Tesla website, 7 April 2016.
 
23
The actual rule is far more complicated. It has two main categories: pure zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and transitional zero-emission vehicles (TZEVs), which include plug-in hybrid EVs. Clean conventional vehicles were credited in the past, but the categories have been simplified. In practice, a complicated credit multiplier system was devised that results in a much larger number of TZEVs being allowed. At the March 2008 board meeting, a resolution I put forward was adopted to redesign the entire program in 2009 around the original goal of accelerating the commercialization of fuel cell, battery, and plug-in hybrid technologies—this time motivated more by climate and energy goals than by local air pollution concerns. An ARB staff ZEV mandate tutorial can be found here: https://​www.​arb.​ca.​gov/​msprog/​zevprog/​zevtutorial/​zevtutorial.​htm.
 
24
Keith Naughton, John Lippert, and Jamie Butters, “Ford Willing to Work with Trump If Policies Are Right,” Detroit News, 3 December 2016.
 
25
National Research Council, Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2013).
 
26
Elisabeth Behrmann, “BMW Sees Battery Costs Weighing on EVs,” Automotive News Europe, 5 December 2016.
 
27
Carrington, “Electric Cars ‘Will Be Cheaper.’”
 
28
Peter Slowik and Nic Lutsey, “Evolution of Incentives to Sustain the Transition to a Global Electric Vehicle Fleet,” International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) white paper, November 2016; Paul Wolfram and Nic Lutsey, “Electric Vehicles: Literature Review of Technology Costs and Carbon Emissions,” ICCT white paper, July 2016.
 
29
Joan M. Ogden, Lewis Fulton, and Daniel Sperling, “Making the Transition to Light-Duty Electric-Drive Vehicles in the U.S.: Costs in Perspective to 2035,” Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-16-21, 2016.
 
30
Ibid.
 
31
Fawcett, “Tesla’s Model-S.”
 
32
David Coady et al., “How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?,” International Monetary Fund, 18 May 2015.
 
33
Scott Hardman et al., “The Effectiveness of Financial Purchase Incentives for Battery Electric Vehicles: A Review of the Evidence,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (December 2017): 1100–1111.
 
34
Wang et al., “China’s Electric Car Surge.”
 
35
Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association, “Norwegian EV Market,” last updated 30 June 2017.
 
36
European Alternative Fuels Observatory, “Norway,” accessed 4 September 2017.
 
37
David Jolly, “Norway Is a Model for Encouraging Electric Car Sales,” New York Times, 16 October 2015.
 
38
Erik Figenbaum, “Perspectives on Norway’s Supercharged Electric Vehicle Policy,” Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 17 November 2016; Kristin Ystmark Bjerkan, Tom E. Nørbech, and Marianne Elvsaas Nordtømm, “Incentives for Promoting Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Adoption in Norway,” Transportation Research Part D 43 (2016): 169–80.
 
39
Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association, “Norwegian EV Policy,” last updated 30 June 2017.
 
40
Lingzhi Jin, Stephanie Searle, and Nic Lutsey, “Evaluation of State-Level U.S. Electric Vehicle Incentives,” ICCT white paper, October 2014.
 
41
Suzanne Guinn, “EVSE Rebates and Tax Credits, by State,” clippercreek.​com, accessed 22 December 2016.
 
42
James Murray, “Electric Vehicle Charge Points to Outnumber Petrol Stations by 2020, Say Nissan,” The Guardian, 4 August 2016.
 
43
Paul McVeigh, “Ford, BMW, Daimler, VW Group Plan Fast-Charging EV Network,” Automotive News Europe, 29 November 2016.
 
44
Zach McDonald, “A Simple Guide to DC Fast Charging,” fleetcarma.​com, 4 February 2016.
 
Metadaten
Titel
Electric Vehicles: Approaching the Tipping Point
verfasst von
Daniel Sperling
Copyright-Jahr
2018
Verlag
Island Press/Center for Resource Economics
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-906-7_2

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