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2021 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

A Computational Procedure to Capture the Data Uncertainty in a Model Calibration: The Case of the Estimation of the Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine

Authors : David Martínez-Rodríguez, Ana Navarro-Quiles, Raul San-Julián-Garcés, Rafael-J Villanueva

Published in: Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

In this paper we propose a technique to estimate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine. The effectiveness of the vaccine is estimated every year, when the influenza season has finished, analyzing samples of a high number of patients in the emergency departments of the hospitals, and this makes it very expensive.

To do so, our proposal consists of a difference equations model that simulates the transmission dynamics of the influenza where the vaccine effectiveness is included as a parameter to be determined. The proposed technique will calibrate the model parameters taking into account the uncertainty of the data provided from reported cases of influenza. The calibration will return an estimation of the vaccine effectiveness with a 95% confidence interval.

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previous chapter Investigating the Influence of Mechanical Property Variability on Dispersion Diagrams Using Bayesian Inference

next chapter Uncertainty Quantification of Pareto Fronts

The study [12] gives the reported cases per \(100\ 000\) people. We have multiplied these values by 10.

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Title: A Computational Procedure to Capture the Data Uncertainty in a Model Calibration: The Case of the Estimation of the Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine
Authors: David Martínez-Rodríguez
Ana Navarro-Quiles
Raul San-Julián-Garcés
Rafael-J Villanueva
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-53668-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-53669-5

Copyright Year: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53669-5_27