A hybrid model of convolutional neural network and an extreme gradient boosting for reliability evaluation in composite power systems integrated with renewable energy resources

This paper introduces an approach that enhances the computational efficiency of reliability assessment for composite power systems by integrating machine learning (ML) techniques with sequential monte carlo simulation (SMCS). Integration of renewable energy resources (RERs) into power systems is increasing at a rapid pace. Evaluating the reliability of composite power systems is helpful in identifying any deficiencies in their operation. As power systems operation becomes more fluctuating and stochastic, it is necessary to update the tools used to analyse reliability. In this paper, SMCS is used as a conventional method, as it provides results by taking chronological nature of RERs. However, SMCS is highly computational. ML models fit for solving complex problems that require computational power. ML techniques, such as convolutional neural network (CNN) and hybrib models of Convolutional and Extreme Gradient Boosting (ConXGB), and Convolutional and Random Forest (ConRF) are proposed to determine the expectation of load curtailment and minimum amount of load curtailments. The proposed technique is applied on test system IEEE RTS-79. Results indicate the ConvXGB method is fast and accurate in computing composite reliability indices. For instance, it achieved a Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of 0.0025 and an Expected Demand Not Supplied (EDNS) of 0.1850 MW, compared to SMCS’s LOLP of 0.0021 and EDNS of 0.1794 MW while reducing computational time from 12900 to 5414 s. These results confirm the proposed method’s speed and accuracy, making it a robust solution for modern power system reliability evaluation.