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2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

2. A Methodological Framework for Nuclear Proliferation in the South

Authors : Lucky E. Asuelime, Raquel A. Adekoye

Published in: Nuclear Proliferation in South Africa

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter presents a methodological framework for nuclear proliferation and how the South African case may be situated. This chapter provides a unique prism through which nuclear proliferation can be methodologically understood. This is important due to the fact that nuclear-related data are largely undefined and states usually carry out nuclear activities in a clandestine manner. Nuclear politics and levels of advancement are shrouded in secrecy. Therefore, to ensure objectivity and the validity of data, a case study approach is projected as a viable method of analyzing nuclear history and politics. We cross-examined different sources of both primary and secondary information on the five recognized nuclear weapons powers—Britain, USA, Soviet Union, China, and France. This ensures the validity of the claims that we make in the study through the analysis of this material in the context of the cases.

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previous chapter A Conceptual Frame of Nuclear Proliferation in South Africa and the British Nexus

next chapter British–South African Nuclear Politics: A Review

Those who considered only an actual nuclear explosive test as nuclear proliferation would have had an optimistic view of proliferation trends, since only six countries had tested their nuclear explosive devices by the end of the 1980s, but others who regarded the possession of nuclear capability as proliferation would have projected 25–30 nuclear countries.

Note that the data here and in subsequent tables in other chapters reflect the situation during the 1980s and, therefore, do not reflect current policy positions. South Africa is categorized as a latent nuclear country in this study since I proceed as if South Africa had not officially announced that it had built six-and-a-half nuclear bombs. This approach is necessary for the most part of the study, simply for the purpose of analysis. This approach enables identification of the causes of future nuclear proliferation issues. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, the focus is on pre-1993 South Africa, when it was still internationally regarded as a nuclear threshold country.

North Korea may be included in this list, but it is not considered since no reliable information or data on its level of nuclear development was available at the time of the study.

In the case of South Africa, there was constant competition between Britain, France, and Germany regarding who would win the bid to supply nuclear infrastructure.

Testing nuclear explosive devices has been regarded an essential technical element of a nuclear weapons program since testing was known to be one of the critical constraints for any country that wishes to obtain highly reliable nuclear bombs. However, many have recently argued that test explosions are no longer necessary, owing to sophisticated laboratory equipment, pretested bomb plans obtained from advanced nuclear countries, and the technique of zero-yield tests.

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Title: A Methodological Framework for Nuclear Proliferation in the South
Authors: Lucky E. Asuelime
Raquel A. Adekoye
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Nuclear Proliferation in South Africa
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-33372-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-33373-1

Copyright Year: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33373-1_2