26. A Model to Evaluate the Modal Shift Potential of Subsidy Policy in Favor of Sea-Rail Intermodal Transport

This paper is to develop an analysis tool to assess the modal shift potential (MSP) of subsidy policy in favor of Sea-Rail Intermodal Transport (SRIT) between Ningbo Port and East Jiangxi province. Based on random utility theory and stated preference (SP) experiments, two disaggregate models, a MMNL model and a MNL model, are established and estimated. Results show that all attributes have the expected sign and the MMNL model outperforms the MNL model. The analysis of MSR under seven scenarios based on MMNL model suggests that giving a subsidy of 400 RMB/TEU to shippers who use SRIT might be the optimal choice for a cost-effective modal shift. The above methodology and results are useful for policy-makers to make freight transport policy, especially the subsidy policy in favor of SRIT.