A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

We describe a first step framework for climate change species’ impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl (Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.