Skip to main content
Top

2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

A Radial Basis Function Neural Network-Based Coevolutionary Algorithm for Short-Term to Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Authors : E. Parras-Gutierrez, V. M. Rivas, J. J. Merelo

Published in: Computational Intelligence

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This work analyzes the behavior and effectiveness of the L-Co-R method using a growing horizon to predict. This algorithm performs a double goal, on the one hand, it builds the architecture of the net with a set of RBFNs, and on the other hand, it sets a group of time lags in order to forecast future values of a time series given. For that, it has been used a set of 20 time series, 6 different methods found in the literature, 4 distinct forecast horizons, and 3 distinct quality measures have been utilized for checking the results. In addition, a statistical study has been done to confirms the good results of the method L-Co-R.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Footnotes
1
National Statistics Institute (http://​www.​ine.​es/​).
 
Literature
1.
go back to reference Araújo, R.: A quantum-inspired evolutionary hybrid intelligent apporach fo stock market prediction. Int. J. Intell. Comput. Cybern. 3(10), 24–54 (2010)MathSciNetCrossRef Araújo, R.: A quantum-inspired evolutionary hybrid intelligent apporach fo stock market prediction. Int. J. Intell. Comput. Cybern. 3(10), 24–54 (2010)MathSciNetCrossRef
2.
go back to reference Bowerman, B., O’Connell, R., Koehler, A.: Forecasting: Methods and Applications. Thomson Brooks/Cole, Belmont, CA (2004) Bowerman, B., O’Connell, R., Koehler, A.: Forecasting: Methods and Applications. Thomson Brooks/Cole, Belmont, CA (2004)
3.
go back to reference Box, G., Jenkins, G.: Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden Day, San Francisco (1976) Box, G., Jenkins, G.: Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden Day, San Francisco (1976)
4.
go back to reference Brockwell, P., Hyndman, R.: On continuous-time threshold autoregression. Int. J. Forecast. 8(2), 157–173 (1992)CrossRef Brockwell, P., Hyndman, R.: On continuous-time threshold autoregression. Int. J. Forecast. 8(2), 157–173 (1992)CrossRef
5.
go back to reference Broomhead, D., Lowe, D.: Multivariable functional interpolation and adaptive networks. Complex Syst. 2, 321–355 (1988)MathSciNet Broomhead, D., Lowe, D.: Multivariable functional interpolation and adaptive networks. Complex Syst. 2, 321–355 (1988)MathSciNet
6.
go back to reference Carse, B., Fogarty, T.: Fast evolutionary learning of minimal radial basis function neural networks using a genetic algorithm. In: Proceedings of Evolutionary Computing. LNCS, vol. 1143, pp. 1–22 Springer, Heidelberg (1996) Carse, B., Fogarty, T.: Fast evolutionary learning of minimal radial basis function neural networks using a genetic algorithm. In: Proceedings of Evolutionary Computing. LNCS, vol. 1143, pp. 1–22 Springer, Heidelberg (1996)
7.
go back to reference Castillo, P., Arenas, M., Merelo, J., and Romero, G.: Cooperative co-evolution of multilayer perceptrons. In: Mira, J., lvarez, J.R. (eds.) Computational Methods in Neural Modeling, LNCS, vol. 2686, pp. 358–365. Springer, Heidelberg (2003)CrossRef Castillo, P., Arenas, M., Merelo, J., and Romero, G.: Cooperative co-evolution of multilayer perceptrons. In: Mira, J., lvarez, J.R. (eds.) Computational Methods in Neural Modeling, LNCS, vol. 2686, pp. 358–365. Springer, Heidelberg (2003)CrossRef
8.
9.
go back to reference Clements, M., Franses, P., Swanson, N.: Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models. Int. J. Forecast. 20(2), 169–183 (2004)CrossRef Clements, M., Franses, P., Swanson, N.: Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models. Int. J. Forecast. 20(2), 169–183 (2004)CrossRef
10.
go back to reference Du, H., Zhang, N.: Time series prediction using evolving radial basis function networks with new encoding scheme. Neurocomputing 71(7–9), 1388–1400 (2008)CrossRef Du, H., Zhang, N.: Time series prediction using evolving radial basis function networks with new encoding scheme. Neurocomputing 71(7–9), 1388–1400 (2008)CrossRef
11.
go back to reference Eshelman, L.: The chc adptive search algorithm: how to have safe search when engaging in nontraditional genetic recombination. In: Proceedings of 1st Workshop on Foundations of Genetic Algorithms, pp. 265–283 (1991) Eshelman, L.: The chc adptive search algorithm: how to have safe search when engaging in nontraditional genetic recombination. In: Proceedings of 1st Workshop on Foundations of Genetic Algorithms, pp. 265–283 (1991)
12.
go back to reference García-Pedrajas, N., Hervas-Martínez, C., Ortiz-Boyer, D.: Cooperative coevolution of artificial neural network ensembles for pattern classification. IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput. 9(3), 271–302 (2005)CrossRef García-Pedrajas, N., Hervas-Martínez, C., Ortiz-Boyer, D.: Cooperative coevolution of artificial neural network ensembles for pattern classification. IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput. 9(3), 271–302 (2005)CrossRef
13.
go back to reference Harpham, C., Dawson, C.: The effect of different basis functions on a radial basis function network for time series prediction: a comparative study. Neurocomputing 69(16–18), 2161–2170 (2006)CrossRef Harpham, C., Dawson, C.: The effect of different basis functions on a radial basis function network for time series prediction: a comparative study. Neurocomputing 69(16–18), 2161–2170 (2006)CrossRef
14.
go back to reference Holm, S.: A simple sequentially rejective multiple test procedure. Scand. J. Stat. 6(2), 65–70 (1979)MathSciNet Holm, S.: A simple sequentially rejective multiple test procedure. Scand. J. Stat. 6(2), 65–70 (1979)MathSciNet
15.
go back to reference Hyndman, R., Koehler, A.: Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. Int. J. Forecast. 22(4), 679–688 (2006)CrossRef Hyndman, R., Koehler, A.: Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. Int. J. Forecast. 22(4), 679–688 (2006)CrossRef
16.
go back to reference Hyndman, R.J., Khandakar, Y.: Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for r. J. Stat. Softw. 27(3), 1–22 (2008) Hyndman, R.J., Khandakar, Y.: Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for r. J. Stat. Softw. 27(3), 1–22 (2008)
17.
go back to reference Jain, A., Kumar, A.: Hybrid neural network models for hydrologic time series forecasting. Appl. Soft Comput. 7(2), 585–592 (2007)MathSciNetCrossRef Jain, A., Kumar, A.: Hybrid neural network models for hydrologic time series forecasting. Appl. Soft Comput. 7(2), 585–592 (2007)MathSciNetCrossRef
18.
go back to reference Li, M., Tian, J., Chen, F.: Improving multiclass pattern recognition with a co-evolutionary rbfnn. Pattern Recogn. Lett. 29(4), 392–406 (2008)CrossRef Li, M., Tian, J., Chen, F.: Improving multiclass pattern recognition with a co-evolutionary rbfnn. Pattern Recogn. Lett. 29(4), 392–406 (2008)CrossRef
19.
go back to reference Lukoseviciute, K., Ragulskis, M.: Evolutionary algorithms for the selection of time lags for time series forecasting by fuzzy inference systems. Neurocomputing 73(10–12), 2077–2088 (2010)CrossRef Lukoseviciute, K., Ragulskis, M.: Evolutionary algorithms for the selection of time lags for time series forecasting by fuzzy inference systems. Neurocomputing 73(10–12), 2077–2088 (2010)CrossRef
20.
go back to reference Ma, X., Wu, H.: Power system short-term load forecasting based on cooperative co-evolutionary immune network model. In: Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Education Technology and Computer, pp. 582–585 (2010) Ma, X., Wu, H.: Power system short-term load forecasting based on cooperative co-evolutionary immune network model. In: Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Education Technology and Computer, pp. 582–585 (2010)
21.
go back to reference Makridakis, S., Andersen, A., Carbone, R., Fildes, R., Hibon, M., Lewandowski, R., Newton, J., Parzen, E., Winkler, R.: The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition. J. Forecast. 1(2), 111–153 (1982)CrossRef Makridakis, S., Andersen, A., Carbone, R., Fildes, R., Hibon, M., Lewandowski, R., Newton, J., Parzen, E., Winkler, R.: The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition. J. Forecast. 1(2), 111–153 (1982)CrossRef
22.
go back to reference Makridakis, S., Hibon, M.: The m3-competition: results, conclusions and implications. Int. J. Forecast. 16(4), 451–476 (2000)CrossRef Makridakis, S., Hibon, M.: The m3-competition: results, conclusions and implications. Int. J. Forecast. 16(4), 451–476 (2000)CrossRef
23.
go back to reference Maus, A., Sprott, J.C.: Neural network method for determining embedding dimension of a time series. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 16(8), 3294–3302 (2011)MathSciNetCrossRef Maus, A., Sprott, J.C.: Neural network method for determining embedding dimension of a time series. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 16(8), 3294–3302 (2011)MathSciNetCrossRef
24.
go back to reference Parras-Gutierrez, E., Garcia-Arenas, M., Rivas, V., del Jesus, M.: Coevolution of lags and rbfns for time series forecasting: L-co-r algorithm. Soft Comput. 16(6), 919–942 (2012)CrossRef Parras-Gutierrez, E., Garcia-Arenas, M., Rivas, V., del Jesus, M.: Coevolution of lags and rbfns for time series forecasting: L-co-r algorithm. Soft Comput. 16(6), 919–942 (2012)CrossRef
25.
go back to reference Pea, D.: Análisis de Series Temporales. Alianza Editorial (2005) Pea, D.: Análisis de Series Temporales. Alianza Editorial (2005)
26.
go back to reference Potter, M., De Jong, K.: A cooperative coevolutionary approach to function optimization. In: Proceedings of Parallel Problem Solving from Nature, LNCS, vol. 866, pp. 249–257. Springer, Heidelberg (1994)CrossRef Potter, M., De Jong, K.: A cooperative coevolutionary approach to function optimization. In: Proceedings of Parallel Problem Solving from Nature, LNCS, vol. 866, pp. 249–257. Springer, Heidelberg (1994)CrossRef
27.
go back to reference Rivas, V., Merelo, J., Castillo, P., Arenas, M., Castellano, J.: Evolving rbf neural networks for time-series forecasting with evrbf. Inf. Sci. 165(3–4), 207–220 (2004)MathSciNetCrossRef Rivas, V., Merelo, J., Castillo, P., Arenas, M., Castellano, J.: Evolving rbf neural networks for time-series forecasting with evrbf. Inf. Sci. 165(3–4), 207–220 (2004)MathSciNetCrossRef
28.
go back to reference Sheskin, D.: Handbook of parametric and nonparametric statistical procedures. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (2004) Sheskin, D.: Handbook of parametric and nonparametric statistical procedures. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (2004)
29.
go back to reference Snyder, R.: Recursive estimation of dynamic linear models. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (Methodological) 47(2), 272–276 (1985) Snyder, R.: Recursive estimation of dynamic linear models. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (Methodological) 47(2), 272–276 (1985)
30.
go back to reference Takens, F.: Dynamical systems and turbulence, Lecture Notes In Mathematics, vol. 898, Chapter Detecting Strange Attractor in Turbulence, pp. 366–381. Springer, New York, NY (1980) Takens, F.: Dynamical systems and turbulence, Lecture Notes In Mathematics, vol. 898, Chapter Detecting Strange Attractor in Turbulence, pp. 366–381. Springer, New York, NY (1980)
31.
go back to reference Tong, H.: On a threshold model. Pattern Recogn. signal process. NATO ASI Ser. E: Appl. Sc. 29, 575–586 (1978) Tong, H.: On a threshold model. Pattern Recogn. signal process. NATO ASI Ser. E: Appl. Sc. 29, 575–586 (1978)
32.
go back to reference Tong, H.: Threshold models in non-linear time series analysis. Springer, Berlin (1983)CrossRef Tong, H.: Threshold models in non-linear time series analysis. Springer, Berlin (1983)CrossRef
33.
go back to reference Whitehead, B., Choate, T.: Cooperative-competitive genetic evolution of radial basis function centers and widths for time series prediction. IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. 7(4), 869–880 (1996)CrossRef Whitehead, B., Choate, T.: Cooperative-competitive genetic evolution of radial basis function centers and widths for time series prediction. IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. 7(4), 869–880 (1996)CrossRef
34.
Metadata
Title
A Radial Basis Function Neural Network-Based Coevolutionary Algorithm for Short-Term to Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Authors
E. Parras-Gutierrez
V. M. Rivas
J. J. Merelo
Copyright Year
2016
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23392-5_7

Premium Partner