3. A Review of Tropical Cyclone Idai Forecasting, Warning Message Dissemination and Public Response Aspects of Early Warning Systems in Southern Africa

The loss of life and destruction of property caused by Tropical Cyclone Idai in southern Africa in 2019 highlight the need for a review of the mainstreaming of early warning system (EWS) into development plans and effectiveness in protecting lives, property and livelihoods in the region. This review examines Tropical Cyclone Idai forecasting, warning message dissemination and public response aspects of EWS in reducing the loss of life, property and livelihoods in three countries of southern Africa impacted by the cyclone. Literature focusing on four elements of the EWS framework of cyclone risk knowledge, forecasting, dissemination of warning messages to the population at risk and public response was reviewed. Results revealed gaps in mainstreaming of EWS into development plans in the region, which compromised its effectiveness. The track, intensity and landfall leading time forecasts were difficult to accurately predict a few days ahead of landfall and warning messages came late, creating ambiguity in the public response to warning communications. Public risk knowledge deficiency combined with a lack of faith in warning communication messages issued contributed to low public response. This review concludes that although EWS are in place in southern Africa, more studies are needed to evaluate their effectiveness in practice.