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2023 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

A Spatial Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model for the Spread of Viruses

Authors : Jenny Lu, Fred Vermolen

Published in: Computer Methods, Imaging and Visualization in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering II

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

In this paper a Spatial Markov Chain Cellular Automata model for the spread of viruses is proposed. The model is based on a graph with connected nodes, where the nodes represent individuals and the connections between the nodes denote the relations between humans. In this way, a graph is connected where the probability of infectious spread from person to person is determined by the intensity of interpersonal contact. Infectious transfer is determined by chance. The model is extended to incorporate various lockdown scenarios. Simulations with different lockdowns are provided. In addition, under logistic regression, the probability of death as a function of age and gender is estimated, as well as the duration of the disease given that an individual dies from it. The estimations have been done based on actual data of RIVM (from the Netherlands).

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Metadata
Title
A Spatial Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model for the Spread of Viruses
Authors
Jenny Lu
Fred Vermolen
Copyright Year
2023
Book
Computer Methods, Imaging and Visualization in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering II

Print ISBN: 978-3-031-10014-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-031-10015-4

Copyright Year: 2023

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10015-4_1

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