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This chapter delves into the resilience of Myanmar's maize value chain during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the sector's unexpected growth amidst global economic downturns. It examines the role of smallholder farmers, the diversification of export markets, and the impact of non-tariff barriers and logistical challenges. The study reveals how Myanmar's maize exports surged by 150% during the pandemic, driven by increased demand from neighboring countries like Thailand and China. It also explores the structural challenges faced by the sector, including seasonal import restrictions and regulatory hurdles. The chapter concludes by highlighting the importance of strengthening trade infrastructure and standards to ensure sustainable growth and regional integration. Readers will gain insights into the adaptability of Myanmar's agricultural sector and the strategies employed to navigate market volatility and policy shifts.
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Abstract
This paper investigates the unexpected growth and resilience of Myanmar’s maize value chain during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period marked by economic disruption and volatility in global agricultural markets. Despite widespread challenges, Myanmar’s maize exports surged by 150%, driven by sustained demand from neighboring ASEAN countries, particularly China and Thailand. This growth positioned Myanmar as a key regional supplier of livestock feed. However, the sector faced significant challenges, including non-tariff barriers, border closures, logistical disruptions, and strict export licensing requirements. These barriers underscored Myanmar’s dependency on informal trade routes with China, leaving the sector vulnerable to sudden regulatory changes and seasonal closures. In response, the maize value chain rapidly adapted, pivoting trade toward alternative ASEAN markets. New trade pathways, particularly with Thailand, were facilitated by geographic proximity, competitive pricing, and flexible production practices by smallholder farmers. These farmers demonstrated agility in adjusting planting cycles and trading strategies, reflecting the importance of maize as a cash crop for rural livelihoods. The sector’s resilience also reflected alignment with ASEAN’s agricultural trade demands and the potential for deeper regional integration. This study, drawing on stakeholder interviews and regional trade data, underscores the necessity for Myanmar to address infrastructure gaps, enhance quality standards, and formalize trade channels. Policy recommendations focus on improving logistics, fostering public–private partnerships, and strengthening cross-border trade policies to support the sector’s sustainable growth. This case offers broader insights into how emerging agricultural economies can navigate global shocks through adaptive strategies and regional cooperation.
8.1 Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered one of the most severe global economic downturns in recent history, contracting the world economy by 3.2% (International Monetary Fund, 2021). Amid this crisis, Myanmar’s agricultural sector—and notably the maize value chain—demonstrated unexpected resilience and growth. This highlights a paradox wherein agricultural exports expanded despite widespread economic disruptions (Goeb et al., 2024). While many sectors experienced contractions, the maize sector expanded, underscoring a counterintuitive outcome within Myanmar’s broader economic context.
Although maize represents a smaller share of Myanmar’s total cultivated land compared to staple crops like rice, its expanding role in export markets, especially to China and Thailand, underscores a strategic shift in Myanmar’s trade dynamics. Unlike rice, which serves as both a dietary staple and a cultural symbol, occupying around 40% of agricultural land, maize has emerged as a vital cash crop primarily for smallholder farmers, contributing significantly to rural livelihoods and economic stability in the face of global uncertainty (Mallory, 2021).
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Historically, Myanmar’s agricultural exports have been dominated by rice and pulses, with rice often exported to China via informal channels and pulses directed to India (Boughton et al., 2024). However, maize’s recent rise—accounting for less than 3% of cultivated land pre-pandemic—reflects Myanmar’s responsiveness to shifting regional trade demands. Smallholder farmers, who are central to maize production, have adapted cultivation practices to meet fluctuating international demand, furthering the diversification of Myanmar’s agricultural portfolio (Win et al., 2022). This shift has supported agricultural resilience while generating new income opportunities for rural communities, reinforcing the socio-economic impact of maize within the agricultural sector.
Despite these positive developments, Myanmar’s maize export sector continues to face structural challenges, including non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and regulatory hurdles at key border points. Seasonal import restrictions, cross-border logistical delays, and newly mandated licensing requirements have added unpredictability to trade flows, undermining efficiency and profitability (ThaiBiz Myanmar, 2022; U. S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service, 2023). Nonetheless, the sector achieved a 150% increase in export volumes during the pandemic (CARI ASEAN, 2020), suggesting that resilience in this context refers not only to output stability, but also to farmers’ and traders’ ability to navigate policy and market volatility.
In light of these dynamics, this study examines the dynamics of agricultural growth amid crisis by analyzing Myanmar’s maize value chain during COVID-19 period. As Southeast Asia assumes an increasingly strategic role in global supply chains, Myanmar’s capacity to diversify exports within ASEAN has become vital. This paper explores how smallholder farmers, and exporters adapted to shifting maintain market conditions, mitigating trade-related constraints, and leveraged emerging opportunities to maintain competitiveness and market access (McKinsey & Company, 2024).
8.2 Literature Review
This literature review explores the resilience and challenges of Myanmar’s maize value chain during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on non-tariff barriers (NTBs), logistical constraints, market volatility, climate challenge, and policy gaps within the context of an evolving regional supply chain landscape.
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8.2.1 COVID-19 Impact and Policy Shifts on Maize Trade
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted agricultural exports worldwide, particularly affecting perishable goods and staples across the world. The onset of the pandemic saw varied effects across different segments of the agriculture market. Arita et al. (2023) reveal that while exports of beef, pork, and non-food agricultural commodities faced temporary declines in early 2020, the grains and oilseeds markets remained relatively unaffected. The varying impacts of the pandemic are also shown in the study of Friedt and Zhang (2020), which quantified a 40–45% reduction in Chinese exports during the initial wave of the pandemic. They attribute this decline partly to domestic supply shocks and partly to international demand shifts.
In the context of Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), despite severe economic disruptions across economic sectors, Myanmar’s maize sector displayed resilience in terms of its production and export quantities. The resilience was sustained by a high demand for livestock feed in key markets, particularly Thailand and China during the pandemic (Mallory, 2021). This trend aligns with Southeast Asia’s strategic diversification in the global supply chain (highlighted by McKinsey & Company, 2024), positioning Myanmar’s maize value chain as an increasingly vital component of ASEAN trade.
According to the World Trade Organization (2021), “trade in agricultural products remained stable in 2020, preventing the health crisis from becoming a food crisis.” The WTO’s annual report highlighted the resilience of global trade in food and agricultural products, which grew by 3.5% in 2020, defying initial projections. This resilience can be attributed to several factors, including the low-income elasticity of food demand and the classification of the agriculture sector as essential by many governments, allowing it to continue operations despite widespread lockdowns. On the other hand, logistical issues, such as extensive delays at the Myanmar-China border due to tightening of quarantine and phytosanitary measures during COVID-19, have led to the spoilage of hundreds of tons of maize daily, resulting in financial losses and product waste that arise from cross-border inefficiencies (CARI ASEAN, 2020). Despite these obstacles, Myanmar’s maize export volume surged by150% during the pandemic, underscoring the resilience of the sector and highlighting the resilience of the maize supply chain under crisis conditions.
8.2.2 Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) and Logistical Constraints
Myanmar’s maize exports encounter numerous NTBs, including seasonal import restrictions from Thailand and newly mandated export licensing requirements. As of April 2022, Myanmar requires export licenses for all maize-related products across trade channels, a policy intended to enhance food security and environmental monitoring (ThaiBiz Myanmar, 2022; USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, 2023). However, these measures introduce substantial compliance costs and delays, contributing to trade volatility and uncertainty.
In the case of Cambodia, non-tariff measures (NTMs), rather than tariffs, have been identified as the primary barriers to international market access. An empirical analysis by Lim (2024), using a gravity model, assessed the impact of four categories of NTMs: sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, technical barriers to trade (TBT), pre-shipment inspections (PSI), and other non-technical barriers (NTBs). The study found that SPS and PSI measures had a statistically significant negative effect on Cambodia’s agricultural exports. Given that SPS and PSI measures are particularly relevant to primary agricultural products, similar adverse effects can be reasonably anticipated in the context of Myanmar, a fellow least-developed country in the same regional context.
Furthermore, Baldwin and Evenett (2012) argue that NTBs like these create unpredictability and financial burdens for agricultural exporters, especially for smallholders reliant on stable market access. Additionally, inefficient border procedures with China result in significant product spoilage, further highlighting how NTBs and logistical barriers limit the sector’s full trade potential (CARI ASEAN, 2020). Improving infrastructure and streamlining logistics, as emphasized by McKinsey and Company (2024), is essential for strengthening Myanmar’s role in Southeast Asia’s regional supply chains.
8.2.3 Market Volatility and Climate Challenges
Like in many other developing countries, maize prices in Myanmar exhibit significant seasonal volatility, characterized by notable fluctuations throughout the year. This volatility is particularly pronounced during the harvest season and is influenced by factors such as market remoteness, transportation costs, and supply–demand imbalances. According to the World Bank (2015), markets located farther from major urban centers tend to experience higher price volatility due to limited access to supplies and higher transportation costs. Poor infrastructure and high transport costs can further restrict the ability of markets to draw supplies from other areas, further contributing to price volatility. For instance, in Rwanda, nominal maize prices have fluctuated significantly, more than doubling between 2021 and 2022 before returning to near pre-2022 levels (Warner et al., 2025).
Despite seasonal price volatility, Myanmar’s maize sector has shown adaptability through climate-responsive farming practices and market diversification strategies. Farmers in Shan State and other key growing regions adjusted planting cycles to align with demand fluctuations and climate variability, demonstrating resilience through agricultural adaptions (Aung et al., 2024). Boughton et al. (2021) further highlighted that although smallholders faced input shortages and restricted trade access during COVID-19, production persisted, driven by local demand and reallocation of labor and land. In line with McKinsey and Company’s (2024) findings on regional diversification, Myanmar exported maize exports into alternative ASEAN markets, such as Thailand, reducing its overall dependency on China and thereby strengthening its resilience against market fluctuations from external shocks (Myanmar Digital News, 2022).
8.2.4 Policy Gaps in Trade Facilitation
Myanmar’s government has implemented several trade facilitation measures, such as temporarily waiving export taxes to mitigate the effects of pandemic-related trade disruptions. It also sought coordination with the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) to register 112 Myanmar companies for maize exports, a development expected to ease cross-border delays (Myanmar Digital News, 2022).
Since 2021, Myanmar’s transport and logistics sector has experienced severe disruptions due to escalating conflict, insecurity along major transport corridors, and frequent attacks on critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and railways. These conditions have rendered domestic freight movement unsafe, unpredictable, and costly, further compounding an already high trade cost environment. Even before the crisis, Myanmar’s trade costs—driven by policy, regulatory, and logistics-related barriers—were among the highest in the region, exceeding 300% ad valorem in 2020 (World Bank, 2024a, 2024b). These persistently high “thick border” costs—referring to domestic and behind-the-border restrictions—have since worsened.
As a result of growing insecurity, increased fuel prices, proliferating checkpoints, informal payments, and a lack of transport inputs like spare parts, both formal and informal trade flows in Myanmar have become increasingly constrained in the recent years, inflating the costs of domestic distribution and cross-border commerce, particularly affecting the maize export. These challenges of ongoing customs holdups and persistent pre-shipment compliance delays reinforce the need for greater ASEAN cooperation to standardize quality assurance measures and reduce logistical bottlenecks. These trade facilitation measures are crucial to Myanmar’s strategic role in Southeast Asia’s diversified supply chain, enabling its maize value chain to contribute to regional food security and economic resilience (ADB, 2023).
8.2.5 Gaps and Directions for Future Research
The literature suggests that Myanmar’s maize export sector would benefit from ASEAN-GMS cooperation to minimize NTBs and streamline customs procedures. Future studies could assess the economic impact of NTBs and licensing regulations on smallholder income and explore cross-border solutions for improving the movement of perishable goods like maize. What was not addressed in this study was the benefit of maize export boom on smallholder farmers in terms of their income, productivity, and future crop choices. A comprehensive value chain analysis across domestic production and trading as well as farm-level household surveys should complement the full extent of resilience and adaptability in the sector. Additionally, examining resilience mechanisms, such as intra-regional market diversification and adaptive farming, would provide valuable insight into sustainable growth pathways for Myanmar’s maize sector within a volatile trade environment.
8.3 Research Objectives and Methodology
This study presents an in-depth case analysis of Myanmar’s maize value chain, examining the export performance and adaptive strategies employed in response to COVID-19 disruptions. Maize value chain was chosen to study the concept of resilience because the sector is relatively a small and late entrant to regional agriculture trade, facing multiple challenges in production efficiency and market entry. Using high-frequency monthly quantitative data and detailed formal trade flow information, we assess the pandemic’s varied effects on maize export outcomes, comparing 2020’s performance with pre-pandemic benchmarks. Our analysis includes an examination of government responses to the pandemic across destination countries, notably China and Thailand, to better understand trade impacts, mobility restrictions, and health measures that shaped trade dynamics.
The study focuses on the following research questions to explore the challenges, opportunities, and strategies within Myanmar’s maize export sector:
Diversification and Market Integration: What are the challenges and long-term opportunities for diversifying Myanmar’s maize exports to new markets, and what strategies support sustainable integration?
Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) and Trade Facilitation: What types of NTMs and logistical challenges do Myanmar’s maize exporters encounter, particularly when diversifying to other ASEAN markets, and how do these affect trade efficiency and competitiveness?
Public–Private Partnerships and Trade Associations: How can partnerships between public and private sectors address gaps in trade diversification, and what role can trade associations, like the Myanmar Corn Industry Association (MCIA), play in driving positive changes?
Our research methodology involved qualitative interviews with 50 value chain actors, including local farmers, traders, operators of drying facilities, local feed millers, and national exporters. This extensive data collection, conducted across key maize-producing regions such as southern Shan State, Kachin State, and the Ayeyarwady River Basin, provides a comprehensive view of the sector. In-depth interviews were held with representatives from the MCIA and its executive council to understand market responses, operational challenges, and strategic shifts prompted by the pandemic. These interviews offer valuable insights into the sector’s adaptability, which is essential for understanding the resilience factors behind Myanmar’s maize export performance during COVID-19.
This study ultimately explores how COVID-19 led to a strategic shift in Myanmar’s maize export landscape, driven by the collapse of a primary export destination and the urgent need to explore new markets. The analysis addresses whether this turning point was a result of deliberate public policy, private sector strategy, or an unforeseen consequence of pandemic-related supply chain disruptions in destination economies. However, these public–private responses may not provide a reliable basis for attributing the maize export boom to the resilience of the value chain, as the study relied solely on key informant interviews from the exporting country without tracking import decisions in the destination markets or incorporation data on informal trade.
8.4 Overview of the Maize Value Chain in Myanmar
The maize value chain in Myanmar has increasingly become a pivotal component of the country’s agricultural landscape, despite traditionally being overshadowed by dominant crops such as rice. This study explores the complexities of the maize value chain, focusing on its recent prominence in export markets and its implications for local cultivation and trade dynamics (FAO, 2019).
Maize cultivation in Myanmar is spread across diverse agro-ecological zones, enabling year-round production in various regions such as the Sagaing and Mandalay Regions, as well as Shan, Kayah, and Kayin States. Traditionally reliant on smallholder farmers, maize production has not only supported rural livelihoods but also contributed to national food security (Htay, 2016). However, unlike rice, which has historically been a staple and a significant export, maize has only recently emerged as a key export commodity. Its export notably surged post-2010, with over 95% initially directed toward China (Menon, 2022).
From 2010 to 2019, Myanmar’s maize export market was overwhelmingly dominated by China, with maize exports to China averaging $153.5 million annually between 2015 and 2019. Significant shares of maize export to China are traded informally across the border. This informal trade represents a significant loss for Myanmar in terms of value added and employment opportunities along maize value chain. The major barrier to export formally across Chinese border is lack of national quality infrastructure at the border checkpoints, and both countries have not addressed the issue for a decade (Diao, Masias & Lwin, 2024).
During the last decade, the informal maize trade to China became highly susceptible to administrative border control measures as well as non-tariff measures such as SPS regulations. One debilitating factor is the peculiar practice of China’s “on–off” enforcement of border control measures on parallel informal trade (Win et al., 2022). Whereas trade in traditional agriculture products and livestock has been going on for centuries between peasants and traders along unpoliced China-Myanmar border, both the volume and value of such trade have been rising since last decade and most of these transactions were not recorded in official statistics. The Chinese government also offered special incentives for China-Myanmar border populations to substitute opium crop with maize that can be imported to China free to custom duties. At the same time, there were several bilateral agreements between local authorities (district-level) of two countries to allow border residents to barter their products, which became exploited by the traders to evade formal trade. When Chinese border trade authorities enforced restrictions or block informal imports, it caused chain reactions along the supply chain stopping the trade flows and causing free fall of prices.
In the absence of a formal trade agreement or trade facilitation arrangement, the informal trade became asymmetrical with China controlling the timing and volume of trade flows at border points. Chinese border authorities not only restricted trade flows on seasonal basis but also imposed ad hoc quality control measures to restrict the quantity of imports. When there was a shortage of maize in China, the border was opened, and allowed the informal trade to flow, drawing large amount of supply from the traders in Myanmar. When closed, traders suppressed farm gate prices, leading to sharp negative impacts on Myanmar’s smallholders and producers.
Under these informal arrangements, Chinese buyers can exercise considerable bargaining power over pricing, benefitting from advanced regulatory knowledge and access to information on the timing of border control measures in advance. The informal trade across China-Myanmar border has deep implications for maize value chain, in terms of upgrading product quality to meet the stringent standards required to export formally while bearing the negative impacts of price fluctuations caused by “on–off” flows. The price volatility and uncertainty not only undermined investment potentials along the supply chain but also caused serious implications for maize farmers in Myanmar.
In response to this volatility, Myanmar traders pursued export diversification, increasingly targeting alternative markets, such as Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries. When the COVID-19 pandemic led China to close its borders completely, Myanmar exporters redirected maize to Thailand at discount prices. Simultaneously, pandemic-related logistical challenges prompted Thai importers to source maize from Myanmar rather than through Europe or Latin America. As a result, Myanmar established new trade routes to Thailand through Myawaddy, initially informal but later formalized under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This shift led to a surge in maize exports to Thailand, averaging $340.4 million annually between 2020 and 2022, which accounted for 55.2% of Myanmar’s maize exports during that period (Diao, Masias & Lwin, 2024). As a result of pandemic disruptions, both countries benefited from a shorter, more resilient maize supply chain. This trend marks a significant shift in Myanmar’s agricultural export strategy, emphasizing the diversification and increasing importance of maize in global trade networks.
The Thai maize market is a significant market with a domestic production of approximately 4.9 million tons annually. However, it consumes about 9 million metric tons of corn annually, importing about 4 to 5 million tons. The major importing countries are Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia. In 2023, Myanmar imported 88% of Thailand’s maize, followed by Laos with 5.56% and India with 2.67%. In the past, Thailand used to import cheap American corn and it began to import from neighboring countries in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic when global supply chains were disrupted and the cost of shipment went very high (USDA, 2024). Domestically, the maize boom is a relatively new phenomenon, as governance along the supply chain is characterized by a level of equity rarely seen in other sectors. The absence of monopolistic actors within the market has allowed for a more distributed economic benefit among stakeholders, from farmers to exporters. This structure supports a relatively fair distribution of income and opportunities, providing smallholders with more direct access to international trade benefits. However, the dominance of informal trade, particularly with China, has constrained the sector’s potential for value addition and employment generation.
This study, therefore, examines how Myanmar’s reliance on informal export channels necessitated a strategic pivot toward diversifying export markets and aligning more closely with importer demands in terms of logistics and commodity quality. Previous research has often focused on production-related aspects of the maize value chain; this study contributes to the literature by examining the downstream segments, particularly market access and export strategies, thus filling a critical knowledge gap and highlighting the need for upstream transformations in production systems to meet evolving export demand.
8.5 The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic
8.5.1 Initial Disruptions in the Value Chain
The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound and multifaceted impact on Myanmar’s agriculture sector, with the maize value chain experiencing significant disruptions across various dimensions. These disruptions are categorized into four primary categories identified by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2020), each affecting the maize sector in unique ways.
(a)
Disruption of Food Product Market Chains: According to interviews conducted with smallholder farmers and local traders, travel restrictions, and lockdowns severely hindered transportation and logistics, disrupting the movement of maize from rural farms to local and international markets (FAO, 2020). With the closure of major local markets due to health protocols, producers access to buyers became limited, resulting in oversupply and produce spoilage (World Bank, 2022). Many interviewed farmers reported difficulties accessing storage facilities, leading to significant losses. Without stable markets, producers struggled to sell their crops, contributing to economic strain in rural areas.
(b)
Price Volatility and Social Tensions: Price fluctuations, exacerbated by the pandemic, were particularly acute in Myanmar’s maize sector. Farmers and traders indicated that domestic prices surged due to temporary supply shortages but fell sharply as regional demand slowed, especially in key markets such as China and Thailand (Goeb et al., 2020). This volatility has not only affected farmer incomes but also led to social tensions, as communities grappled with the affordability and availability of basic food commodities, including maize.
(c)
Supply Chain Disruptions and Border Closures: Cross-border trade slowdowns severely impacted Myanmar’s maize sector, with border closures to China and restrictions in Thailand creating bottlenecks in export flows. This resulted in an oversupply within Myanmar, driving prices down and reducing the profitability of maize farming (World Bank, 2022). Interviews with exporters highlighted that informal trade routes, especially those along the China border, became unreliable due to abrupt closures. As these routes closed, the flow of goods stalled, directly affecting the livelihoods of farmers and traders who relied on them.
(d)
Decline in Household Income and Livelihoods: The pandemic’s impact on market access and prices led to a sharp decline in household income for smallholder maize farmers, many of whom rely solely on crop sales for their livelihood. Interviews with farmers in the Shan and Mandalay regions revealed that income reductions hindered their ability to afford essential agricultural inputs like fertilizers and quality seeds, resulting in lower productivity. The pandemic also reduced remittances from family members working abroad, a crucial income source for many rural households in Myanmar, further straining financial stability.
(e)
Health Concerns and Labor Shortages: Health risks related to COVID-19 led to labor shortages, as communal farming activities were restricted, and family members became reluctant to work together in close quarters. Stakeholder interviews revealed that many rural families, which typically rely on all members to participate in farming activities, have had to operate with reduced manpower, further diminishing their capacity to maintain usual production levels. The labor shortage affected planting, harvesting, and post-harvest processing, decreasing production capacity.
The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to global shocks. The maize value chain in Myanmar was severely impacted, particularly smallholder farmers in northern Shan State, who faced reduced consumption and production due to the combined effects of trade restrictions, COVID-19, and the 2021 coup. This economic strain limits farmers’ ability to purchase essential farm inputs, threatens yields, and could ultimately force others to sell land, a last-resort measure tied closely to their socio-cultural identity and future security (FAO, 2021). Moving forward, it is essential for stakeholders, from policymakers to agricultural organizations, to develop strategies that enhance the resilience of the maize value chain against future crises. These strategies should focus on improving market access, stabilizing prices, and safeguarding the health and economic well-being of rural communities. The lessons learned during the pandemic will be invaluable in preparing for, and mitigating the impacts of, similar future challenges.
8.5.2 Resilience of the Value Chain and Resurgence of Export
The resilience and recovery of Myanmar’s maize value chain in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic are attributed to several key factors that have not only enabled a swift recovery but also supported a substantial expansion in exports. These insights are based on interviews with stakeholders within the maize trade network, as well as secondary sources. Despite major disruptions, the sector demonstrated adaptability and leveraged new opportunities in several ways:
(a)
Robust Domestic Production: Myanmar maintained steady maize production despite global disruptions, producing an estimated 2.5 to 3 million tons annually, with approximately 60% allocated for export markets (Diao, Masias & Lwin, 2024; USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, 2021). This production capacity ensured that Myanmar could meet both domestic and international demands, even during periods of global supply chain disruptions. When exports to China became unreliable, Myanmar redirected maize to Thailand and other ASEAN markets, such as Vietnam and the Philippines (Diao, Masias & Lwin, 2024). This redirection was facilitated by less stringent quality requirements in these new markets, enabling continued exports with minimal delays (Fig. 8.1).
Alignment with Regional Demand: The surge in Myanmar’s maize exports corresponded to growing demand from neighboring ASEAN countries, particularly Thailand, whose livestock industry required substantial maize imports for animal feed. Myanmar’s geographic proximity and the seasonal alignment of its maize production with Thailand’s demand cycles (February to August) provided a strategic advantage (Goeb et al., 2024). Informal trade practices, although initially a vulnerability due to the reliance on China, were quickly adapted to new trade dynamics, allowing for quicker and more flexible arrangements with Thailand and other countries (MAPSA 2023).
8.5.3 Export Diversification and New Market Discovery
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted strategic diversification of Myanmar’s maize export markets, catalyzing a shift toward Thailand and other ASEAN markets. This shift was driven by geopolitical events, rising regional demand, and logistical advantages that reduce Myanmar’s reliance on China. Here, we elaborate on specific factors that facilitated this diversification:
(a)
Geopolitical and Market Influences: Initially, Myanmar’s exports of maize to Thailand were minimal until just before 2019. However, the repeated border closures by China in 2017 and 2018, which previously dominated Myanmar’s export destinations, coupled with COVID-19 disruptions, forced the country to seek alternative markets (Win et al., 2022). China had imposed strict SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) requirements for pest control and TBT (technical barriers to trade) measures, including mandatory quality inspections at checkpoints (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, 2021). Concurrently, Thailand faced a rising demand for animal feed due to its growing livestock production, a need that could not be met by domestic production alone. Economic analysis by Chansang (2018) highlighted Thailand’s increasing dependency on maize imports.
(b)
Cost and Supply Chain Dynamics: Global supply chain disruptions made maize imports from traditional suppliers such as Ukraine and the United States prohibitively expensive for Thailand. Myanmar’s relative proximity offered a more cost-effective alternative, helping to mitigate some of the transportation and logistical challenges experienced globally during the pandemic (MAPSA, 2023). Figure 8.2 illustrates this dynamic, showing a stark increase in Thailand’s imports from Myanmar from negligible amounts in 2017 and 2018 to over 80 to 90% of Thailand’s total maize imports from 2019 onward.
Fig. 8.2
Thailand’s Total Maize Imports and Share of Myanmar (in million US$).
Agricultural and Commercial Synergies: The quality of Myanmar’s maize, which aligns with the standards required for animal feed in Thailand, further supported this shift. Agro-climatic similarities between the two countries allowed Myanmar to adopt Thai seed varieties, which are known for high yields, enhancing the attractiveness of Myanmar’s maize. The longstanding commercial relationships, particularly with Thailand’s leading feed industry conglomerate, the CP Group, further facilitated trade. The CP Group’s involvement in contract farming provided stable demand and strengthened trust between Myanmar’s farmers and Thai buyers.
(d)
Regional Economic Dynamics: Broader regional integration also played a crucial role. As documented by UN ESCAP (2019), economic integration in the region has been strengthening, making cross-border trade in agricultural products more viable and economically attractive.
Myanmar’s maize sector demonstrated significant adaptability and strategic positioning in the regional agricultural economy. By diversifying export markets, aligning with regional demand, and maintaining robust production capabilities, the sector not only overcame pandemic-related challenges but also laid a foundation for deeper integration within ASEAN’s agricultural supply chain. This adaptability serves as a model for other agricultural sectors in Myanmar seeking to strengthen their export resilience and reduce dependency on single markets.
8.6 Research Findings
8.6.1 Low Equilibrium Maize Production
Elevated input prices, coupled with inconsistent quality and reduced availability during the pandemic, resulted in diminished yields in Myanmar. Approximately 90% of seeds used by farmers are hybrid varieties, with the majority being imported from Thailand (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, 2023). The disruption caused by the pandemic significantly affected the supply chain, particularly affecting the availability of these crucial inputs.
Figure 8.3 highlights the differences in maize yield (kg/ha) among various countries, highlighting Myanmar’s comparatively low productivity. The disparity reflects the challenges stemming from limited access to quality inputs, inadequate infrastructure, and weak institutional support.
Fig. 8.3
Comparative Analysis of Maize Yield (kg/ha) Among Countries.
Access to financial resources remains a significant barrier. Farmers often face high-interest loans and are generally ineligible for government subsidies or extension services. As a result, farmers are forced to take out expensive loans, further straining their finances.
The increased costs of labor and machinery-driven by rising fuel prices-raised the overall cost of production (World Bank, 2024a, 2024b). This, in turn, substantially compressed farmers’ profit margins, leaving them with limited room for reinvestment or risk mitigation. Additionally, farmers contended with elevated transaction costs and numerous production-stage barriers. The absence of dedicated government extension services for maize cultivation has further marginalized smallholder farmers, leaving them without technical support, and hampering their ability to adapt to challenging circumstances.
Despite an overall growth in maize exports, these pandemic-induced challenges culminated in substantial losses for maize farmers, underscoring the severe hardship faced by the agricultural sector during this period. However, the decision by the Government of Thailand to allow maize import from Myanmar was a significant market signal to the farmers who had the confidence to stick with maize instead of switching to other cash crops. These farmers’ decisions in response to the strong market signal from the Thai government were a major reason for sustained production in Myanmar.
8.6.2 Marketing Gaps and Seasonal Price Volatility in Agriculture in Myanmar
Even prior to the onset of the pandemic, maize farmers in Myanmar grappled with some of the most substantial price fluctuations in comparison to other crops throughout the year. This volatility was particularly pronounced in the two years leading up to COVID-19, with farm gate prices reaching their lowest points during the harvest season (Fig. 8.4). These depressed prices offered minimal incentives for farmers to make investments aimed at enhancing their productivity.
In 2020, price volatility intensified further. Monthly fluctuations compelled traders to significantly reduce their purchasing prices during the harvest season of said year. Notably, between October and December 2020, maize farm gate prices were approximately 10% lower than in the corresponding period of 2019. As a result, many farmers incurred losses due to the persistently low prices, limiting their financial resilience. The Thai’s government decision to open the buying season of Myanmar’s maize from February to August during the COVID-19 period was also a major factor in dampening the seasonal price volatility where unpredictable demand often caused hoarding and price gauging.
8.6.3 Logistic Costs and Domestic Demand Constraints
The cultivation of maize in Myanmar primarily occurs during the wet season, emphasizing the critical need for effective drying processes to preserve quality and proper storage. However, moisture sensitivity in maize is frequently undermined by a lack of drying infrastructure (Mekong Institute, 2023). The scarcity of dryers can be attributed to the significant upfront investment costs and the unpredictable nature of market demand. As a result, much of the maize harvested often falls into the category of low-quality, unprocessed grain. This not only affects the farmers’ income but also the overall product standards within the region.
Moreover, interviews with farmers and traders revealed the lack of proper storage facilities forced many to sell their produce at a loss during the pandemic time (CARI ASEAN, 2020). Price collapses left farmers with limited options due to the absence of adequate storage facilities and mechanisms like warehouse receipt systems.
Additionally, domestic demand for maize experienced a sharp decline, by 30%, largely attributed to the pandemic’s disruptions which affected the livestock industry, especially due to the closure of restaurants and hotels. With local demand falling, farmers became more reliant on international markets, underscoring the vulnerability of the domestic market.
Transportation costs also surged considerably as freight services prioritized export commodities, especially following the post-coup collapse in Myanmar’s import demand. These elevated logistics costs further depressed farm gate prices, compounding the challenges faced for maize producers.
The concept of value chains emphasizes the interconnected processes that transform raw agricultural products into market-ready goods, including production, processing, distribution, and marketing (Kaplinsky & Köhler, 2004). A well-integrated maize value chain ensures that the final product meets quality standards and reaches consumers in a timely and cost-effective manner.
Market integration refers to the alignment of different markets, be it local, regional, or international, into a cohesive system. It is driven by factors such as efficient transportation, reduced trade barriers, and harmonized regulations. For Myanmar’s maize industry, market integration presents opportunities for reaching a broader consumer base and accessing more favorable price points (Jha, 2017).
8.6.4 Diversification of Market: The Importance of ASEAN Markets
Strengthening trade relations and market integration with ASEAN economies, particularly through Thailand, offers a strategic pathway for Myanmar to stabilize and amplify its agricultural exports. The arguments for this consolidation are grounded in both the current market dynamics and the broader regional economic policies.
Emerging ASEAN markets have significantly increased imports of maize from Myanmar. Between 2020 and 2022, Thailand accounted for a substantial 55.2% of Myanmar’s total maize exports, followed by the Philippines with nearly 16% (Diao et al., 2024). These figures not only underscore Thailand’s role as a central hub for Myanmar’s maize exports but also reflect the potential for further integration with other ASEAN markets such as Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Laos.
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains and emphasized the benefits of regional sourcing. ASEAN nations found Myanmar to be a cost-effective and logistically simpler supplier compared to distant exporters like the United States. Myanmar’s geographic proximity offers significant competitive advantages, characterized by shorter and more agile supply chains that are less susceptible to global disruptions.
For example, Thailand expedited trade procedures with ASEAN partners to ensure consistent maize imports, a model Myanmar could emulate to streamline its export processes (Harakunarak, 2016). Nevertheless, Myanmar still faces challenges related to banking delays and inefficient trade facilitation, which can deter international partnerships.
It is crucial for the Government of Myanmar to engage proactively with its ASEAN counterparts to address these bottlenecks. This includes improving maize quality infrastructure, aligning export standards, and engaging with initiatives such as the ASEAN Regional Comprehensive Economic Program (RCEP), which could provide tariff-free market access and further boost the competitiveness of Myanmar’s exports.
ASEAN’s growing demand for maize, particularly due to the expansion of the livestock industry, necessitates Myanmar’s strategic diversification of export destinations. Strengthening the supply chain through contract farming opportunities with investors from neighboring economies and enhancing government-supported research and development are viable strategies. Thailand, for instance, has used public–private partnerships to align production with regional needs (FAO, 2013).
In this regard, consolidating trade relations and market integration with ASEAN economies via Thailand represents a strategic opportunity for Myanmar to enhance its regional position. By addressing existing trade facilitation challenges, leveraging geographic proximity, and investing in value chain improvements, Myanmar can ensure sustainable growth in maize exports and secure a robust position in the ASEAN agricultural economy. This approach will not only capitalize on the current market dynamics but also prepare Myanmar for future regional economic shifts.
8.7 Conclusions and Recommendations
8.7.1 Summary of the Findings
Myanmar’s maize sector faces a multifaceted set of challenges rooted in high production costs, volatile market prices, and logistical constraints. The COVID-19 pandemic further amplified these existing vulnerabilities, exposing weaknesses across the maize value chain. Farmers encountered limited access to quality inputs, elevated financial and transactional costs, and inadequate governmental support, which especially hindered smallholder farmers from achieving profitable yields. These conditions, couples with extreme price volatility and seasonal fluctuations, discouraged investment in productivity and undermined sector stability.
To address these issues, a multi-pronged approach is needed. Key interventions include targeted financial support mechanisms, improved access to high-quality inputs, and investments in post-harvest infrastructure such as drying facilities and storage. These initiatives can protect farmer incomes and improve production quality.
Despite these challenges, Myanmar has notable opportunities to expand its maize industry, particularly within ASEAN. Proximity to rapidly growing regional markets, particularly for livestock feed, positions Myanmar favorably. By capitalizing on shorter, more resilient supply chains and aligning with regional frameworks like RCEP, Myanmar can strengthen its competitive position in the ASEAN market. With proactive government engagement, policy alignment, and strategic investments, Myanmar’s maize industry can achieve sustainable growth, transforming the maize sector into a resilient and export-oriented industry.
8.7.2 Conclusions
Despite of initial disruptions at the onset of pandemic, Myanmar’s maize value chain benefited from new market opportunities within the region due to the global shift in long-distance trade logistics and the increased demand for livestock feed in neighboring countries like China and other Southeast Asian economies. However, non-tariff barriers and cross-border logistics remained a major barrier against maize value chain’s expansion into these new markets. Simultaneously, market volatility and climate change posed challenges on the production segments of the value chain, while weaknesses in government policy and trade facilitation further hindered the expansion. Ultimately, it was the inherent resilience and adaptability of value chain actors that not only shielded them from the most severe impacts but also enabled them to thrive in an otherwise adverse environment.
This study highlights the critical importance of strengthening Myanmar’s maize value chain through deeper integration with Thailand and other ASEAN economies. A strategic realignment of agricultural priorities—centered on maize—presents a unique opportunity for sustainable sectoral growth and regional trade integration. Collaboration with Thailand can move beyond trade to include shared infrastructure development, harmonized quality standards, and regional cooperation, providing a blueprint for broader economic engagement.
Such collaboration would bring clear benefits: improved market access for Myanmar’s maize, higher product quality, more efficient value chains, and stronger economic ties within ASEAN. With increasing demand for maize in regional markets, particularly for animal feed, Myanmar has the opportunity to become a key supplier—provided it addresses current constraints and aligns with regional trade policies.
By focusing on ASEAN-led economic strategies and leveraging regional trade agreements like RCEP, Myanmar can significantly enhance its agricultural export capacity. Ultimately, fostering a close partnership with Thailand and deepening ties within ASEAN could help position maize as a cornerstone of Myanmar’s agricultural economy. This approach could also provide a model for transforming other sectors, while also elevating the standard of living for farmers and stakeholders across the value chain.
8.7.3 Policy Recommendations
Myanmar stands to benefit significantly from closer agricultural cooperation with Thailand, particularly in the context of the maize value chain. The following recommendations outline specific areas for action:
(a)
Strategic Reorientation Toward Maize: The government of Myanmar has historically prioritized rice cultivation. However, the relative success of maize, even during the challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests the need for a policy shift. Repositioning maize as a strategic crop would involve enhancing public–private partnerships, promoting high-yield seed varieties, and investing in post-harvest handling practices and streamlined trade facilitation. Thailand’s experience with NGOs and agribusinesses in maize development offers a valuable model (FAO, 2013).
(b)
Ensuring Sustainability of Export Demand: The surge in demand from ASEAN countries, particularly Thailand, offers a significant opportunity. If the demand proves durable, Myanmar should forge partnerships that enhance the regional value chain. Initiatives could include shared agricultural best practices, the exchange of high-quality seed varieties, and contract farming schemes. Such initiatives would support not only Thai farmers in transitioning toward high-value crops but also enhance the quality and quantity of Myanmar’s maize production. Thailand’s success with contract farming in the cassava industry demonstrates how such models can stabilize prices and ensure farmer incomes (Tongchure et al., 2013).
(c)
Enhancing Trade Infrastructure and Standards: Myanmar must address the disparities between informal and formal trade. Its engagement in the ATMI/IFAD regional roadmap signals its willingness to cooperate, but further progress requires bilateral trade agreements with Thailand to guarantee long-term commitments. Exploring engagements under RCEP could also offer tariff-free access and regulatory alignment, essential to catalyze growth, extending the benefits observed in other sectors to agriculture.
(d)
Improving Quality and Regulatory Compliance: Myanmar’s maize currently meets baseline export standards, but improving quality is essential to remain competitive in international markets. Targeted investments in quality assurance systems and trade zone infrastructure are needed. Collaborative quality control protocols with Thailand can help ensure that maize meets regional standards, thereby expanding market access.
(e)
Creating Predictable Trade Mechanisms: Further support from Thailand could be instrumental in stabilizing trade mechanisms, particularly through predictable border control measures. Such predictability is essential for planning and can dramatically reduce the risks associated with trade volatility. Border trade with Thailand should be strengthened through shared infrastructure and harmonized customs procedures. Myanmar can benefit from the ASEAN Single Window model, which has already simplified cross-border trade in other parts of the region (Suvannaphakdy & Neo, 2022). Implementing similar mechanisms will enhance trade reliability and efficiency.
8.8 Limitations of the Study
This study faced several limitations. First, a significant portion of Myanmar’s maize trade, particularly with China, occurs through informal channels. As a result, there is limited availability of reliable official data, which makes it difficult to obtain precise trade volumes, values, and overall economic impact.
Second, the analysis relied heavily on qualitative data from interviews and field observations. While these provide valuable insights into farmer experiences and supply chain dynamics, this approach may introduce subjectivity. The assessment of resilience and adaptability in particular would benefit from triangulation with quantitative data.
Finally, the study’s observation period was relatively short, focusing primarily on the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This temporal limitation restricts the analysis of long-term structural changes or recovery strategies. A longitudinal study would provide a deeper understanding of how the sector adapts over time and which policy responses yield lasting benefits.
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