AgriPredict: Threat Assessment Model for Agricultural Management

Agricultural disasters, mostly ones caused by biological threats, pose severe threats to global food security and economic stability. Early detection and effective management are essential for mitigating these risks. In this research paper, we propose a comprehensive disaster prediction and management framework integrating any of the resources like social networks or Internet of Things (IoT) for data collection. The model combines real-time data collection, risk assessment, and decision-making processes to forecast agricultural disasters and suggest mitigation strategies. The mathematical foundation of this model defines relationship between key variables, such as plant species, infestation agent species, tolerance levels, and infestation rates. The system relies on IoT or mobile-based social network agents for data collection at the ground level, to get precise and consistent information from diverse geographic regions. The model further includes a hierarchical risk assessment process that identifies, evaluates, and assesses risks based on predefined criteria, enabling informed decision-making for disaster mitigation. Multi-plant species and multi-infestation agent interactions are also considered to capture the complexities of agricultural systems. The proposed framework provides a scalable approach to predicting and managing agricultural disasters, particularly targeting biological threats. By incorporating real-time data and dynamic decision-making mechanisms, the model considerably improves the resilience of agricultural systems against both localized and large-scale threats.