Introduction
Data
Swedish car registry data
Fuel type | 2006 | 2007 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Number | Percentage | Number | Percentage | |
Petrol | 83,416 | 77.40 | 67,011 | 57.50 |
Clean petrol | 2044 | 1.90 | 4959 | 4.30 |
Diesel | 18,650 | 17.30 | 38,118 | 32.70 |
Clean diesel | 76 | 0.10 | 1508 | 1.30 |
Electric hybrid | 475 | 0.40 | 586 | 0.50 |
Clean electric hybrid | 314 | 0.30 | 421 | 0.40 |
Ethanol | 5107 | 4.70 | 10,739 | 9.20 |
Gas | 69 | 0.10 | 112 | 0.10 |
Data on new car alternatives
Fuel type | 2006 | 2007 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Number | Percentage | Number | Percentage | |
Petrol | 1579 | 68.00 | 1748 | 65.20 |
Clean petrol | 24 | 1.90 | 31 | 1.10 |
Diesel | 703 | 30.30 | 863 | 32.70 |
Clean diesel | 1 | 0.04 | 15 | 0.60 |
Electric hybrid | 11 | 0.50 | 13 | 0.50 |
Clean electric | 5 | 0.20 | 6 | 0.20 |
Ethanol | 16 | 0.70 | 44 | 1.60 |
Gas | 11 | 0.50 | 11 | 0.40 |
Data matching
Aggregation methodology
Choice models
Multinomial logit
Nested logit models
Modeling correlation between aggregate alternatives
Empirical results
Estimation results
Attribute | Description |
---|---|
Brand | Dummies for brands |
Cabriolet | Dummy for cabriolets |
Coupe | Dummy for coupes |
Hatchback | Dummy for hatchback |
Minibus | Dummy for minibus |
Minivan | Dummy for minivan |
MPV | Dummy for multi-purpose vehicles (MPV) |
Sedan | Dummy for hatch-back |
SUV | Dummy for hatch-backs |
GAS | Dummy for natural gas cars |
E85 | Dummy for ethanol-hybrid cars |
Electric | Dummy for electrical-hybrid cars |
Diesel | Dummy for diesel cars |
AFV | Dummy for alternative fuel vehicles (E85,GAS and electric) |
Price | Purchasing price in 1,000,000 SEK |
Tax | Vehicle circulation tax in 1000 SEKa |
Tank volume | in liters |
Weight/power | kg/kW/10 |
Lux | Dummy for luxury car (purchase price over 800,000 SEK) |
Clean | Dummy for clean cars |
Variable | Model MNL | Model NLwH | Model NL | Model NLP | Model NL2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Value (t value) | Value (t value) | Value (t value) | Value (t value) | Value (t value) | |
ALFA-ROMEO | − 3.63 (− 35.50) | − 3.46 (− 34.10) | − 3.66 (− 35.90) | − 3.66 (− 36.10) | − 4.67 (− 44.00) |
AUDI | − 1.61 (− 86.20) | − 1.53 (− 83.70) | − 1.60 (− 87.10) | − 1.61 (− 87.30) | − 1.31 (− 67.80) |
BENTLEY | 0.98 (3.08) | 0.45 (1.23) | 0.87 (2.92) | 0.89 (3.28) | − 2.55 (− 6.75) |
BMW | − 1.27 (− 64.70) | − 1.17 (− 57.70) | − 1.26 (− 64.30) | − 1.26 (− 64.00) | − 1.33 (− 70.60) |
CADILLAC | − 2.78 (− 15.10) | − 2.94 (− 15.70) | − 2.85 (− 15.60) | − 2.88 (− 15.50) | − 4.61 (− 23.60) |
CHEVROLET | − 2.72 (− 56.70) | − 2.72 (− 56.70) | − 2.81 (− 59.20) | − 2.77 (− 58.40) | − 3.59 (− 65.80) |
CHRYSLER | − 1.44 (− 30.20) | − 1.42 (− 30.00) | − 1.48 (− 32.00) | − 1.50 (− 32.50) | − 2.74 (− 44.80) |
CITROEN | − 2.07 (− 91.00) | − 1.92 (− 84.50) | − 2.04 (− 93.00) | − 2.02 (− 92.30) | − 2.17 (− 101.00) |
DODGE | − 3.38 (− 27.30) | − 3.4 (− 27.70) | − 3.46 (− 28.30) | − 3.47 (− 28.60) | − 4.48 (− 35.40) |
FERRARI | 0.61 (2.01) | 0.19 (0.60) | 0.51 (1.83) | 0.51 (2.18) | − 2.78 (− 8.41) |
FIAT | − 4.18 (− 55.40) | − 4.07 (− 54.30) | − 4.15 (− 55.40) | − 4.15 (− 55.20) | − 4.83 (− 62.20) |
FORD | − 2.52 (− 145.00) | − 2.36 (− 126.00) | − 2.37 (− 128.00) | − 2.33 (− 129.00) | − 1.25 (− 38.70) |
HONDA | − 1.23 (− 50.90) | − 1.20 (− 48.80) | − 1.31 (− 53.80) | − 1.29 (− 53.60) | − 2.10 (− 58.80) |
HYUNDAI | − 1.52 (− 65.90) | − 1.48 (− 63.90) | − 1.57 (− 70.00) | − 1.55 (− 70.40) | − 1.97 (− 78.90) |
JAGUAR | − 2.94 (− 31.20) | − 3.00 (− 32.10) | − 2.98 (− 32.00) | − 2.98 (− 31.80) | − 4.30 (− 42.20) |
JEEP | − 0.85 (− 10.70) | − 0.95 (− 12.30) | − 0.96 (− 12.60) | − 0.92 (− 12.20) | − 2.55 (− 27.60) |
KIA | − 2.65 (− 72.70) | − 2.59 (− 70.90) | − 2.68 (− 74.40) | − 2.66 (− 74.50) | − 3.25 (− 80.90) |
LAMBORGHINI | 0.49 (1.93) | − 0.06 (− 0.18) | 0.37 (1.48) | 0.37 (1.40) | − 2.92 (− 8.47) |
LAND ROVER | − 3.10 (− 26.00) | − 2.98 (− 25.10) | − 3.05 (− 25.70) | − 3.06 (− 25.80) | − 4.43 (− 35.10) |
LEXUS | − 1.70 (− 23.90) | − 1.76 (− 25.60) | − 1.81 (− 25.20) | − 1.74 (− 25.00) | − 3.07 (− 40.10) |
LOTUS | − 4.60 (− 7.52) | − 4.94 (− 8.55) | − 4.75 (− 8.60) | − 4.78 (− 7.91) | − 6.50 (− 11.20) |
MASERATI | − 0.53 (− 2.18) | − 0.88 (− 1.95) | − 0.61 (− 1.89) | − 0.60 (− 1.70) | − 3.42 (− 7.42) |
MAZDA | − 1.95 (− 79.20) | − 1.81 (− 73.30) | − 1.90 (− 78.20) | − 1.89 (− 78.30) | − 2.29 (− 85.80) |
MERCEDES | − 1.84 (− 79.50) | − 1.75 (− 75.10) | − 1.84 (− 79.50) | − 1.83 (− 79.0) | − 1.59 (− 69.80) |
MINI | − 3.00 (− 34.60) | − 2.93 (− 34.10) | − 2.97 (− 34.70) | − 3.00 (− 35.10) | − 4.00 (− 43.60) |
MITSUBISHI | − 1.79 (− 68.10) | − 1.72 (− 65.70) | − 1.78 (− 69.70) | − 1.81 (− 71.10) | − 2.49 (− 74.10) |
MORGAN | − 5.74 (− 11.20) | − 6.09 (− 12.20) | − 5.89 (− 12.00) | v5.87 (− 11.90) | − 7.13 (− 14.20) |
NISSAN | − 2.79 (− 98.50) | − 2.65 (− 93.60) | − 2.72 (− 97.80) | − 2.74 (− 98.70) | − 2.75 (− 102.00) |
OPEL | − 1.86 (− 92.40) | − 1.72 (− 83.00) | − 1.79 (− 90.80) | − 1.76 (− 91.10) | − 1.63 (− 85.40) |
PEUGEOT | − 1.51 (− 88.40) | − 1.29 (− 69.20) | − 1.39 (− 82.00) | − 1.31 (− 75.90) | − 0.67 (− 29.20) |
PORSCHE | − 1.52 (− 21.00) | − 1.74 (− 24.90) | − 1.51 (− 21.30) | − 1.58 (− 22.00) | − 3.14 (− 37.40) |
RENAULT | − 1.99 (− 105.00) | − 1.88 (− 95.30) | − 1.90 (− 101.00) | − 1.86 (− 100.00) | − 1.60 (− 82.40) |
SAAB | − 0.67 (− 41.20) | − 0.50 (− 29.00) | − 0.61 (− 37.40) | − 0.61 (− 37.10) | − 1.23 (− 48.70) |
SEAT | − 3.10 (− 81.10) | − 3.05 (− 80.20) | − 3.06 (− 81.60) | − 3.09 (− 82.50) | − 3.25 (− 87.80) |
SKODA | − 1.15 (− 66.40) | − 1.06 (− 57.50) | − 1.03 (− 58.20) | − 1.00 (− 58.10) | − 1.15 (− 67.04) |
SMART | − 7.29 (− 24.00) | − 7.12 (− 23.50) | − 7.06 (− 23.30) | − 6.98 (− 23.60) | − 7.59 (− 25.10) |
SSANGYONG | − 4.64 (− 8.36) | − 4.57 (− 7.91) | − 4.63 (− 8.45) | − 4.64 (− 9.58) | − 6.06 (− 10.30) |
SUBARU | − 1.25 (− 42.00) | − 1.13 (− 38.50) | − 1.29 (− 44.50) | − 1.31 (− 45.00) | − 2.31 (− 53.10) |
SUZUKI | − 2.91 (− 68.60) | − 2.85 (− 67.40) | − 2.91 (− 69.70) | − 2.92 (− 70.10) | − 3.54 (− 77.30) |
TOYOTA | − 1.13 (− 73.20) | − 0.93 (− 57.90) | − 1.05 (− 68.00) | − 1.03 (− 67.30) | − 0.909 (− 61.20) |
VOLKSWAGEN | − 1.47 (− 82.60) | − 1.26 (− 71.10) | − 1.40 (− 79.90) | − 1.36 (− 76.80) | − 0.54 (− 21.60) |
VOLVO | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) |
Cabriolet | − 0.36 (− 10.40) | − 0.21 (− 6.79) | − 0.49 (− 13.70) | − 0.41 (− 11.80) | − 0.32 (− 13.60) |
Coupe | − 1.07 (− 21.00) | − 1.19 (− 28.00) | − 1.12 (− 21.50) | − 1.10 (− 21.10) | − 0.88 (− 21.90) |
Hatchback | − 0.21 (− 14.70) | − 0.24 (− 15.90) | − 0.19 (− 13.20) | − 0.18 (− 12.00) | − 0.12 (− 11.20) |
Minibus | − 2.44 (− 28.20) | − 2.64 (− 29.70) | − 2.54 (− 29.30) | − 2.57 (− 29.90) | − 1.60 (− 25.20) |
Minivan | − 1.17 (− 40.00) | − 1.16 (− 43.40) | − 1.24 (− 42.10) | − 1.28 (− 43.30) | − 0.84 (− 34.20) |
MPV | − 1.95 (− 31.10) | − 2.00 (− 31.80) | − 2.03 (− 32.50) | − 2.03 (− 32.30) | − 1.60 (− 30.70) |
Sedan | − 1.44 (− 85.90) | − 1.34 (− 90.40) | − 1.48 (− 86.80) | − 1.47 (− 87.40) | − 1.04 (− 53.90) |
SUV | − 0.22 (− 11.20) | − 0.25 (− 12.70) | − 0.20 (− 10.30) | − 0.21 (− 10.80) | − 0.28 (− 19.10) |
Station-wagon | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) |
Gas | − 0.76 (− 5.73) | − 0.84 (− 5.68) | − 0.74 (− 4.97) | − 0.64 (− 4.89) | − 0.80 (− 7.74) |
E85 | 1.69 (18.60) | 1.72 (18.00) | 1.74 (18.50) | 1.81 (20.40) | 0.90 (11.50) |
Electric | − 0.06 (− 0.75) | − 0.06 (− 0.70) | − 0.01 (− 0.18) | 0.02 (0.31) | − 0.17 (− 2.61) |
Diesel | − 2.42 (− 77.00) | − 2.41 (− 78.00) | − 2.45 (− 79.20) | − 2.47 (− 80.00) | − 1.70 (− 48.90) |
Petrol | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) | 0 (fixed) |
Price | − 2.21 (− 17.70) | − 2.02 (− 13.90) | − 2.04 (− 16.80) | − 2.17 (− 19.80) | − 1.09 (− 10.90) |
Price * clean | − 7.45 (− 17.40) | − 6.48 (− 15.80) | − 7.33 (− 17.30) | − 6.69 (− 16.30) | − 4.06 (− 11.90) |
Tax | − 1.51 (− 56.60) | − 1.45 (− 55.30) | − 1.55 (− 61.90) | − 1.52 (− 61.10) | − 1.00 (− 40.20) |
Tax * diesel | 1.29 (64.10) | 1.24 (63.80) | 1.31 (68.80) | 1.29 (68.20) | 0.86 (43.50) |
Tax * AFV | − 0.49 (− 5.89) | − 0.58 (− 7.12) | − 0.57 (− 6.89) | − 0.65 (− 8.14) | − 0.19 (− 2.73) |
Tank | 4.01 (45.40) | 3.78 (38.50) | 4.10 (47.30) | 4.01 (45.30) | 2.30 (29.50) |
Weight/power | − 0.86 (− 24.60) | − 1.07 (− 30.60) | − 1.02 (− 27.80) | − 1.08 (− 29.80) | − 0.84 (− 30.50) |
Lux | 1.48 (18.40) | 1.47 (14.00) | 1.33 (17.80) | 1.35 (18.80) | 0.83 (14.40) |
Clean | 1.01 (18.50) | 0.80 (15.00) | 0.85 (15.70) | 0.80 (15.40) | 0.48 (11.30) |
\(\widehat{\lambda }\)
| 1 (fixed) | 0.95 (167.05) | 0.88 (142.10) | – (–) | – (–) |
\(\widehat{\alpha }\)
| – (–) | – (–) | – (–) | 0.0045 (25.10) | 0.0049 (26.40) |
\(\widehat{\gamma }\)
| – (–) | – (–) | – (–) | – (–) | 0.0036 (24.70) |
Final Log-likelihood | − 506,484 | − 506,799 | − 506,302 | − 506,113 | − 505,643 |
Null Log-likelihood | − 617,532 | − 617,532 | − 617,532 | − 617,532 | − 617,532 |
Nb. of parameters | 61 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 63 |
\(\bar{\rho }^2\)
| 0.180 | 0.179 | 0.180 | 0.181 | 0.181 |
MNL | NLwH | NL | NLP | NL2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tax/price | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.92 |
Tank volume/price | 1.81 | 1.87 | 2.01 | 1.85 | 2.11 |
(Weight/power)/price | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.77 |
Cross-validation study
MNL | NLwH | NL | NLP | NL2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Random sampling | − 101,457 | − 101,462 | − 101,381 | − 101,346 | − 101,331 |
Tenfold | − 50,649 | − 50,680 | − 50,630 | − 50,611 | − 50,576 |
Prediction results
Brand | Actual | Predicted | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MNL | NLwH | NL | NLP | NL2 | ||
ALFA ROMEO | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
AUDI | 3.76 | 3.58 | 3.63 | 3.64 | 3.68 | 3.79 |
BENTLEY | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
BMW | 3.33 | 9.23 | 8.38 | 8.70 | 7.47 | 2.36 |
CADILLAC | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
CHEVROLET | 0.21 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.44 |
CHRYSLER | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.53 |
CITROEN | 5.81 | 3.69 | 3.73 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 2.91 |
DODGE | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
FERRARI | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
FIAT | 0.71 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
FORD | 5.87 | 4.87 | 4.79 | 4.93 | 4.71 | 5.04 |
HONDA | 3.12 | 2.66 | 2.58 | 2.52 | 2.61 | 2.40 |
HUMMER | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
HYUNDAI | 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.79 | 3.27 |
JAGUAR | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
JEEP | 0.12 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.65 |
KIA | 3.00 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.00 |
LAMBORGHINI | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
LAND ROVER | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
LEXUS | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
LOTUS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
MASERATI | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
MAZDA | 1.77 | 2.39 | 2.44 | 2.40 | 2.46 | 2.33 |
MERCEDES | 1.92 | 2.29 | 2.33 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 1.69 |
MINI | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.37 |
MITSUBISHI | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.45 |
MORGAN | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
NISSAN | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.82 | 1.25 |
OPEL | 3.73 | 3.59 | 3.68 | 3.66 | 3.69 | 3.77 |
PEUGEOT | 8.13 | 8.54 | 8.95 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 11.89 |
PORSCHE | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
RENAULT | 3.31 | 3.77 | 3.93 | 4.00 | 4.18 | 5.13 |
SAAB | 4.68 | 7.37 | 7.12 | 6.97 | 7.13 | 6.15 |
SEAT | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
SKODA | 5.59 | 6.08 | 5.68 | 6.01 | 5.87 | 5.81 |
SMART | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
SSANGYONG | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
SUBARU | 1.11 | 2.07 | 2.05 | 2.03 | 2.01 | 1.85 |
SUZUKI | 1.07 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.54 |
TOYOTA | 8.24 | 6.99 | 7.29 | 7.20 | 7.46 | 10.36 |
VOLKSWAGEN | 7.26 | 4.54 | 5.06 | 4.68 | 4.97 | 6.43 |
VOLVO | 19.45 | 16.16 | 16.17 | 16.28 | 16.16 | 16.35 |
RMSE | – | 1.28 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.06 |