Analysis of the future land cover change in Beijing using CA–Markov chain model

With the acceleration of urbanization, the degree of human influence on land use is getting increasingly deeper. To research the future land use, this paper collects 5 years of land use from 1992 to 2012 from the government, and integrates cellular automata and Markov models to predict the land use change in 2020 and in 2030 in the Idrisi software. The key findings: (1) in the period 1992–2012, significant land cover type has been changed and the rate of change for farmland, ecological land, construction land and other uses, is greater than 6%; (2) the transition areas from farmland to construction land are 778 km², the largest among land use patterns, and they are mainly concentrated to the north, east and south of the city center; (3) according to the 2030 projection, land use change will result in a reduction in farmland, from 3633.29 km² to 3126.21 km² (22.14–19.05% in percentage), and an increase in construction land, from 2976.87 km² to 3239.44 km² (18.14–19.74% in percentage), relative to the total area in 2012. According to the urbanization process, the characteristic of land use change is from original dramatic to the late slowdown, then obtain a stable state finally. But from the results of prediction, the construction land will continue to increase while the farmland will decrease, which counteracts the ability to reach the harmony steady state, and policies related to reduced urban construction development or economic sanctions need to be introduced into land use planning.