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Population and Environment
Published in: Population and Environment 2/2015

13-02-2015 | Original Paper

Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

Authors: Guillaume Marois, Alain Bélanger

Published in: Population and Environment | Issue 2/2015

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Abstract

The objective of this paper was to project the population of the Montreal Metropolitan Community’s municipalities over the 2006–2031 period and assess the effects of changes to urban planning on the expected spatial distribution of the population. For this purpose, we develop a microsimulation model that performs small-area population projections at a municipal level. This model, called local demographic simulations, takes into account local contextual variables such as the expected number of new housing units to be built. We then compare the results from three scenarios with different constraints on the planned residential development of municipalities. We show that although urban sprawl cannot be avoided, increasing the development potential of the central area can slow it. Results also suggest that the age structure of the central area is not significantly affected by different mobility patterns.
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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
The MM is the administrative entity of the metropolitan area of Montreal, which is located in the province of Québec in Canada. It counts about 3.6 million inhabitants in 2006 distributed in 82 municipalities. For the purpose of the projection, three municipalities have, however, been aggregated with an adjacent municipality because of their small population size.
 
2
County-like political entities.
 
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Metadata
Title
Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model
Authors
Guillaume Marois
Alain Bélanger
Publication date
13-02-2015
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
Population and Environment / Issue 2/2015
Print ISSN: 0199-0039
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7810
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-015-0234-7

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