Assessing the Future Resource and Environmental Impacts of China's Aluminum Industry: Implications of Import and Export Transition

Aluminum is widely used in buildings, transportation, and home appliances. However, primary aluminum production is a resource-, energy-, and emission-intensive industrial process. At present, China is the world's largest producer of aluminum. Under China’s new national development pattern of the “internal–external dual cycle”, China’s aluminum industry (AID) future development may also need to be adjusted. This study combines material flow analysis, life cycle assessment and scenario analysis to investigate the potential of resource conservation, energy saving, and emission reduction for China's AID till 2030 under the transition of import and export trade. The results show that nearly 40% of China’s annual aluminum production entered the inventory in use in other parts of the world through trade between 2010 and 2017. In the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the bauxite consumption of China's AID will increase from 170 Tg in 2017 to 291 Tg in 2030, with an annual growth rate of 4.2%. Compared with the BAU scenario, the demand for bauxite in the two scenarios of reducing exports of aluminum products will be reduced by 27% (Scenarios A) and 47% (Scenarios B) in 2030, respectively. In addition, there are obvious benefits in terms of water saving, energy saving, and emission reduction under Scenarios A and Scenarios B. Therefore, promoting the transformation of imports and exports can effectively decrease the external dependence on bauxite of China's AID and is also an important means to achieve carbon peaking by 2030.