Beyond mediation: the direct effect of expectations on the illusion of control

This study delves into the fascinating world of how our prior expectations can shape our judgments and perceptions of control. By conducting an online experiment with 150 psychology undergraduate students, the researchers uncovered that prior expectations can influence contingency judgments both directly and indirectly through behavior. The study also highlights the role of plausibility in causal reasoning and the illusion of control, showing that participants' expectations about the effectiveness of a treatment can significantly impact their judgments. The research reveals that participants who expected a medicine to be more effective displayed a stronger illusion of control, while those with lower expectations were more likely to consider alternative causes. Additionally, the study explores the phenomenon of extreme behaviors in participants, where some administered the treatment in all trials while others did not administer it in any. The findings have implications for understanding how prior expectations can influence our decisions and perceptions, particularly in areas where erroneous beliefs about causality can have significant consequences.