Border Road Freight Traffic in the Context of the Modern Geopolitical Situation

The chapter delves into the intricate relationship between geopolitical events and border road freight traffic, with a particular focus on the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. It highlights how these crises have led to significant disruptions in logistics and international supply chains, affecting the flow of goods and the operations of transport companies. The analysis reveals that geopolitical disruptions can cause drastic reductions in transport volumes, necessitating the implementation of additional security measures and the optimization of transportation processes. The chapter also explores how transport flows have proven resilient in the face of these challenges, quickly returning to pre-crisis levels in many cases. Using Poland as a strategic case study, the research identifies a model that considers the impact of geopolitical disruptions on changes in cross-border freight traffic. This model provides a general trend that allows for an assessment of the impact of geopolitical events on international commodity traffic, offering valuable insights for stakeholders in the transportation and logistics sectors. The chapter also discusses the role of demand forecasting and the potential of mathematical models in identifying changes in cross-border transport over time, providing a comprehensive overview of the challenges and opportunities in modern supply chain management.