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2012 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

4. Building LP-Risk Models of LP-Efficiency and LP-Forecasting Classes

Author : E. D. Solozhentsev

Published in: Risk Management Technologies

Publisher: Springer Netherlands

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Abstract

The knowledge of certain principles often compensates the ignorance of certain facts.
Helvetius
We describe the building logic and probabilistic (LP) risk models of the classes LP-efficiency and LP-forecasting, consider the role of this LP-models in applied tasks. Building the models of the LP-efficiency class was the second and definitely, the most important task, which was solved for economics and had all basic components of the intelligent, information, innovative technologies (I3-technologies).
The risk models of classes LP-efficiency and LP-forecasting are the important part of I3-technologies of managing risk and efficiency in structurally complex systems. We use the following fundamentals: representation of economic systems and processes as structurally complex with random events, L-links and variables; representation of initiating parameters and the efficiency parameter by finite sets of values, and their distributions—by discrete series; using incompatible events groups; building the database and the knowledge base and systems of L- and P-equations; introduction of two types of events for system states in statistical data (appearance and failure); development of the special LP-software.

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Literature
7.
go back to reference Alexeev, V.V., Shokolov, V.V., Solojentsev, E.D.: Logical-and-probabilistic modeling of security portfolio and copulas. Math. Econ. Wrozlaw 10, 73–88 (2006) Alexeev, V.V., Shokolov, V.V., Solojentsev, E.D.: Logical-and-probabilistic modeling of security portfolio and copulas. Math. Econ. Wrozlaw 10, 73–88 (2006)
8.
go back to reference Alexeev, V.V., Solojentsev, E.D.: Logical-probabilistic approach to managing risk and efficiency in structurally complex systems. Inf. Manag. Systems 6, 67–71 (2009) Alexeev, V.V., Solojentsev, E.D.: Logical-probabilistic approach to managing risk and efficiency in structurally complex systems. Inf. Manag. Systems 6, 67–71 (2009)
81.
go back to reference Solozhentsev, E.D.: Risk Management and Efficiency in the Economy. Logical-probabilistic Approach. St. Petersburg University Press, St. Petersburg (2009), 270 pp. Solozhentsev, E.D.: Risk Management and Efficiency in the Economy. Logical-probabilistic Approach. St. Petersburg University Press, St. Petersburg (2009), 270 pp.
85.
go back to reference Solozhentsev, E.D.: I 3-Technologies for Economics. Nauka, St. Petersburg (2011), 400 pp. Solozhentsev, E.D.: I 3-Technologies for Economics. Nauka, St. Petersburg (2011), 400 pp.
Metadata
Title
Building LP-Risk Models of LP-Efficiency and LP-Forecasting Classes
Author
E. D. Solozhentsev
Copyright Year
2012
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4288-8_4